Late Pleistocene–Holocene rise and collapse of Lake Suguta,northern Kenya Rift

The Late Pleistocene to Middle Holocene African Humid Period (AHP) was characterized by dramatic hydrologic fluctuations in the tropics. A better knowledge of the timing, spatial extent, and magnitude of these hydrological fluctuations is essential to decipher the climate-forcing mechanisms that controlled them. The Suguta Valley (2°N, northern Kenya Rift) has recorded extreme environmental changes during the AHP. Extensive outcrops of lacustrine sediments, ubiquitous wave-cut notches, shorelines, and broad terrace treads along the valley margins are the vestiges of Lake Suguta, which once filled an 80 km long and 20 km wide volcano–tectonic depression. Lake Suguta was deep between 16.5 and 8.5 cal ka BP. During its maximum highstand, it attained a water depth of ca 300 m, a surface area of ca 2150 km², and a volume of ca 390 km³. The spatial distribution of lake sediments, the elevation of palaeo-shorelines, and other geomorphic evidences suggest that palaeo-Lake Suguta had an overflow towards the Turkana basin to the north. After 8.5 cal ka BP, Lake Suguta abruptly disappeared. A comparison of the Lake Suguta water-level curve with other reconstructed water levels from the northern part of the East African Rift System shows that local insolation, which is dominated by precessional cycles, may have controlled the timing of lake highstands in this region. Our data show that changes of lake levels close to the Equator seem to be driven by fluctuations of spring insolation, while fluctuations north of the Equator are apparently related to variations in summer insolation. However, since these inferred timings of lake-level changes are mostly based on the radiocarbon dating of carbonate shells, which may have been affected by a local age reservoir, alternative dating methods are needed to support this regional synthesis. Between 12.7 and 11.8 cal ka BP, approximately during the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude Younger Dryas, the water level of Lake Suguta fell by ca 50 m, suggesting that remote influences also affected local hydrology.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10–20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean’s thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.     

Probabilistic impedance of foundation: Impact of the seismic design on uncertain soils

In the linear seismic design of buildings, the (deterministic) substructure method is a customary and efficient approach. However, the existence of spatial variability in the parameters of the mechanical model of the soil, as well as parametric errors, calls for the use of probabilistic approaches in order to provide a reliable design of the structure. The construction of probabilistic models of the soil impedance matrix provides a natural path to such approaches within the context of the substructure method. Two main techniques are described in this paper: a parametric one, typically using the stochastic finite element method, and a nonparametric one, which was introduced more recently. The latter is explored more specifically, and the possibilities it offers in terms of seismic design are presented. In particular, it is shown that it allows for the estimation of quantiles of the quantities of interest, rather than confidence intervals, which lead to highly conservative design. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simple formulas for the dynamic stiffness of pile groups

Simple formulas are derived for the dynamic stiffness of pile group foundations subjected to horizontal and rocking dynamic loads. The formulations are based on the construction of a general model of impedance matrices as the condensation of matrices of mass, damping, and stiffness, and on the identification of the values of these matrices on an extensive database of numerical experiments computed using coupled finite element–boundary element models. The formulations obtained can be readily used for the design of both floating piles on homogeneous half‐space and end‐bearing piles and are applicable for a wide range of mechanical and geometrical parameters of the soil and piles, in particular for large pile groups. For the seismic design of a building, the use of the simple formulas rather than a full computational model is shown to induce little error on the evaluation of the response spectra and time histories. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineralogy and major-element geochemistry of the lower Permian Greta Seam,Sydney Basin,Australia

The mineralogy of the high-volatile bituminous coals and associated strata from the Greta seam, Sydney Basin, Australia, has been evaluated in this study. Although the seam is not immediately overlain by marine strata, percolation of marine water into the original peat bed is indicated by the petrological, mineralogical and geochemical characteristics, which resemble those of coals with marine roof strata. The upper and lower sections of the seam have contrasting mineralogy. Pyrite typically comprises 40 to 56 wt% of the mineral assemblage in the marine-influenced upper part of the seam section. The lower part contains much less pyrite (typically <5 wt%, organic-free basis), and also relatively abundant dawsonite (up to 14 wt%, organic-free basis). The minerals within most coal plies are largely of authigenic origin. These include pyrite, siderite, clay minerals (mainly kaolinite and Na-rich mixed-layer illite/smectite), and quartz, most of which have a relatively early, syngenetic origin. Minor Ti-bearing minerals, anatase or rutile, and phosphate minerals, fluorapatite and goyazite, were probably also formed during early diagenesis. Other minerals have features that indicate late-stage precipitation. These include abundant cleat- and fracture-filling dawsonite, which may be the result of reactions between earlier-precipitated kaolinite and Na₂CO₃- or NaHCO₃-bearing fluids. Minor albite may also be epigenetic, possibly precipitated from the same Ca–Al bearing fluids that formed the dawsonite. The most abundant detrital minerals in the Greta coals are quartz, poorly ordered kaolinite, illite and mixed-layer illite/smectite (I/S). These occur mainly in the floor, roof and other epiclastic horizons of the seam, reflecting periods of greater clastic influx into those parts of the original peat-forming environment. Detrital minerals are rare in the coals away from the epiclastic horizons, probably owing to almost complete sediment bypassing in the depositional system. Alternatively, any detrital minerals that were originally present may have been leached from the peat bed by diagenetic or post-diagenetic processes.     

Opportunities for satellite remote sensing in hydrology and water management

Abstract

Hydrology and Water Management are key areas of applied science in the current world economy. Increasingly hydrologiste are looking to satellite remote sensing to help meet their needs for near real‐time data to measure, monitor and model water in the environment. However, progress has been hindered by the lack of a dedicated series of hydro‐logical satellites.

The paper summarises studies undertaken on an international basis in order to influence satellite, sensor and ground segment design operations to suit the needs of water management.     

Hydrosulfide/sulfide complexes of zinc to 250 °C and the thermodynamic properties of sphalerite

The solubility of synthetic ZnS_(cr) was measured at 25–250 °C and P = 150 bars as a function of pH in aqueous sulfide solutions (~ 0.015–0.15 m of total reduced sulfur). The solubility determinations were performed using a Ti flow-through hydrothermal reactor. The solubility of ZnS_(cr) was found to increase slowly with temperature over the whole pH range from 2 to ~ 10. The values of the Zn–S–HS complex stability constant, β, were determined for Zn(HS)₂⁰_(aq), Zn(HS)₃^?, Zn(HS)₄^2?, and ZnS(HS)^?. Based on the experimental values the Ryzhenko–Bryzgalin electrostatic model parameters for these stability constants were calculated, and the ZnS_(cr) solubility and the speciation of Zn in sulfide-containing hydrothermal solutions were evaluated. The most pronounced solubility increase, about 3 log units at m(S_total) = 0.1 for the temperatures from 25 to 250 °C, was found in acidic solutions (pH ~ 3 to 4) in the Zn(HS)₂⁰_(aq) predominance field. In weakly alkaline solutions, where Zn(HS)₃^? and Zn(HS)₄^2? are the dominant Zn–S–HS complexes, the ZnS_(cr) solubility increases by 1 log unit at the same conditions. It was found that ZnS(HS)^? and especially Zn(HS)₄^2? become less important in high temperature solutions. At 25 °C and m(S_total) = 0.1, these species dominate Zn speciation at pH > 7. At 100 °C and m(S_total) = 0.1, the maximum fraction of Zn(HS)₄^2? is only 20% of the total Zn concentration (i.e. at pH_t ~ 7.5), whereas at 350 °C and 3 <pH_t <10, the fraction of Zn(HS)₄^2? and ZnS(HS)^? is less than 0.05% and 2.5% respectively, of the total Zn concentration and Zn(HS)₂⁰ and Zn(HS)₃^? predominate. The measured equilibrium formation constants were combined with the literature data on the stability of Zn–Cl complexes in order to evaluate the concentration and speciation of Zn in chloride solutions. It was found that at acidic pH, and in more saline fluids having total chloride > 0.05 m, Zn–Cl complexes are responsible for hydrothermal Zn transport with no significant contribution of Zn–S–HS complexes. The hydrosulfide/sulfide complexes will play a more important role in lower salinity (< 0.05 m chloride) hydrothermal solutions which are characteristic of many epithermal ore depositing environments. The value of Δ_fG° (β-ZnS_(cr)) = ? 198.6 ± 0.2 kJ/mol at 25 °C was determined via solubility measurements of natural low-iron Santander (Spain) sphalerite.