Dating of rockfall damage in trees yields insights into meteorological triggers of process activity in the French Alps

Rockfall release is a rather unpredictable process. As a result, the occurrence of rockfall often threatens humans and (infra)structures. The assessment of potential drivers of rockfall activity therefore remains a major challenge, even if the relative influence of rainfall, snowmelt, or freeze–thaw cycles has long been identified in short-term monitoring projects. In the absence of longer-term assessments of rockfall triggers and possible changes thereof, our knowledge of rockfall dynamics remains still lacunary as a result of the persisting scarcity of exhaustive and precise rockfall databases. Over the last decades, several studies have employed growth disturbances (GDs) in tree-ring series to reconstruct rockfall activity. Paradoxically, these series were only rarely compared to meteorological records. In this study, we capitalize on the homogeneity of a centennial-old reforestation plot to develop two reconstructions – R1 including only growth suppressions, and R2 based on injuries – with limited biases related to decreasing sample size and changes in exposed diameters back in time. By doing so, our study also and quite clearly highlights the large potential that protection forests have in terms of yielding reliable, multidecadal rockfall reconstructions. From a methodological perspective, we find no synchronicity between R1 and R2, as well as an absence of meteorological controls on rockfall processes in R1. This observation pleads for a careful selection of GDs in future reconstructions. In terms of process dynamics, we demonstrate that summer intense rainfall events (>10 mm day⁻¹) are the main drivers for rockfall activity at our study site. Despite the stringency of our detection procedure, correlations between rockfall activity and meteorological variables remain comparable to those reported in previous studies, as a result of the complexity and multiplicity of triggering factors. We therefore call for a more systematic coupling of tree-ring analysis with rockfall and microclimatic monitoring in future studies. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discharge and suspended sediment transport in the Ayeyarwady River,Myanmar: centennial and decadal changes

Among the large rivers rising on the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent high mountains, the discharge and suspended sediment load of the Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) River are the least well known. Data collected between 1969 and 1996 at Pyay (Prome) are analysed to provide the best available modern estimate of discharge (379 ± 47 × 10⁹ m³/year) and suspended sediment load (325 ± 57 × 10⁶ t/year) for the river upstream of the delta head. A statistical comparison with data collected in the nineteenth century (1871 to 1879) shows discharge has significantly decreased in the last ～100 years. Regression and correlation analyses between discharge in the modern period and indices of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show a relationship. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The geochemistry of sulphur in a mixed allogenic–autogenic karst catchment,Castleton, Derbyshire,UK

Analyses are presented of anion chemistry and sulphur isotopic compositions of sulphate in sinking streams and groundwaters in a mixed allogenic–autogenic karst catchment. Using the sulphur isotopic data, sources of sulphate from agriculture and the effects of sulphate reduction arising from slurry application can be distinguished from natural rock weathering sources. Within the aquifer, sulphate in known autogenic waters has isotopic compositions distinct from allogenic waters, the autogenic waters being dominated by sulphate from rainfall and rock weathering in these low agricultural intensity catchments. On this basis, water rising at low flow from Whirlpool Rising, Speedwell Cavern, has been identified as dominantly autogenic. Groundwater flow between the sinks and risings in Speedwell Cavern is believed to be along conduits following mineralized faults (rakes). During transit SO42−/Cl− in the water increases. Isotopic mass balance shows that this must be due to addition of sulphate from the oxidation of ore minerals by groundwater. Mass balance considerations show that the present rate of sulphide oxidation must be the result of enhancement by lead mining operations on the rakes. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Appraisal of the 2001 Bhuj Earthquake (Mw 7.7, India) Source Zone: Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping of the Aftershock Sequence

We examined seismic characteristics, b value and fractal dimension of the aftershock sequence of the January 26, 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) that occurred in the Kutch failed rift basin, western margin of the Stable Continental Region (SCR) of India. A total of about 2,000 events (M?≥?2.0) were recorded within two and a half months, immediately after the main shock. Some 795 events were precisely relocated by simultaneous inversion. These relocated events are used for mapping the frequency-magnitude relation (b value) and fractal correlation dimension (Dc) to understand the seismic characteristics of the aftershocks and the source zone of the main shock. The surface maps of the b value and Dc reveal two distinct tectonic arms or zones of the V-shaped aftershock area, western zone and eastern zone. The b value is relatively higher (~1.6) in the western zone compared to a lower value (~1.4) in the eastern zone. The Dc map also shows a higher value (1.2–1.35) in the western zone compared to a lower Dc (0.80–1.15) in the eastern zone; this implies a positive correlation between Dc and b value. Two cross sections, E–W and N–S, are examined. The E–W sections show similar characteristics, higher b value and higher Dc in the western zone and lower in the eastern zone with depth. The N–S sections across the fault zones, however, show unique features; it imaged both the b and Dc characteristics convincingly to identify two known faults, the Kutch Mainland fault and the South Wagad fault (SWF), one stepping over the other with a seismogenic source zone at depth (20–35?km). The source zone at depth is imaged with a relatively lower b and higher Dc at the ‘fault end’ of the SWF showing a negative correlation. These observations, corroborated with the seismic tomography as well as with the proposed geological/tectonic model, shed a new light to our understanding on seismogenesis of the largest SCR earthquake in India in the recent years.     

Volcano-tectonic controls and emplacement kinematics of the Iriga debris avalanches (Philippines)

Mt Iriga in southeastern Luzon is known for its spectacular collapse scar that was possibly created in 1628 ad by a 1.5-km³ debris avalanche. The debris avalanche deposit (DAD) covered 70?km² and dammed the Barit River to form Lake Buhi. The collapse has been ascribed to a non-volcanic trigger related to a major strike-slip fault under the volcano. Using a combination of fieldwork and remote sensing, we have identified a similar size, older DAD to the southwest of the edifice that originated from a sector oblique to the underlying strike-slip fault. Both deposits cover wide areas of low, waterlogged plains, to a distance of about 16?km for the oldest and 12?km for the youngest. Hundreds of metre-wide and up to 50-m-high hummocks of intact conglomerate, sand and clay units derived from the base of the volcano show that the initial failure planes cut deep into the substrata. In addition, large proportions of both DAD consist of ring-plain sediments that were incorporated by soft-sediment bulking and extensive bulldozing. An ignimbrite unit incorporated into the younger DAD forms small (less than 5?m high) discrete hummocks between the larger ones. Both debris avalanches slid over water-saturated soft sediment or ignimbrite and spread out on a basal shear zone, accommodated by horst and graben formation and strike-slip faults in the main mass. The faults are listric and flatten into a well-developed basal shear zone. This shear zone contains components from the substrate and has a diffuse contact with the intact substrata. Long, transport-normal ridges in the distal parts are evidence of compression related to deceleration and bulldozing. The collapse orientation and structure on both sectors and DAD constituents are consistent with collapse being a response to combined transtensional faulting and gravity spreading. Iriga can serve as a model for other volcanoes, such as Mayon, that stand in sedimentary basins undergoing transtensional strike-slip faulting.     

The geology of split butte — A maar of the south-central snake river plain,Idaho

Split Butte is a volcanic crater of Quaternary age consisting of a tephra ring which at one time retained a lava lake. The tephra is thinly bedded and is composed of partially palagonitized sideromelane clasts and subordinate lithic fragments. The beds typically dip radially away from the center of the crater, but locally dip toward the crater center. The tephra ring resulted from phreatomagmatic eruptions as a result of interaction of groundwater with rising basaltic magma, evidenced by glassy and granulated pyroclastic debris, the presence of abundant palagonite and other secondary minerals, numerous armored lapilli, and plastically deformed ash layers below ejecta blocks. Statistical analysis of the grain size distribution of the ash also indicates a phreatomagmatic origin of Split Butte tephra. In addition, the analysis reveals that the stratigraphically lowest tephra was deposited primarily by pyroclastic flow mechanisms while the upper tephra layers, comprising the bulk of the deposits, were deposited dominantly by airfall and pyroclastic surge. The lava lake and four en echelon basalt dikes were emplaced when phreatomagmatic activity at the vent ceased. Subsequent collapse caused a broad, shallow pit crater to form in the laval lake, and minor spattering occurred at one point along the pit crater scarp. Partial erosion of the tephra, deposition of aeolian sediments and encroachment of the Butte by later lava flows completed the development of Split Butte.     

The effect of oxygen fugacity on the solubility of carbon-oxygen fluids in basaltic melt

The solubility of CO₂CO fluids in a mid-ocean ridge basalt (morb) has been measured at 1200°C, 500–1500 bar, and oxygen fugacities between NNO and NNO-4. High oxygen fugacities, and thus CO₂-rich fluids, were produced by using a starting material equilibrated at NNO, and Ag₂C₂O₄ as the fluid source. Low oxygen fugacities were achieved by using graphite capsules, and MgCO₃ as the fluid source. These graphite-saturated fluids have the lowest possibleC/O₂CO ratio for a given pressure and temperature.

Experiments were run in a rapid-quench internally heated pressure vessel. Fluid compositions were measured using a simple vacuum technique and by Raman spectroscopy of fluid inclusions. The two techniques yielded comparable results. Fourier transform micro-infrared spectroscopy was used to identify and measure concentrations of dissolved volatiles in double-polished wafers of the quenched glasses. Carbonate was the only carbon-bearing species identified. Raman spectroscopic analysis of inclusion-free areas of glass confirmed the absence of dissolved molecular CO₂, CO and carbon. The measured concentrations of dissolved CO₂ in the glasses were proportional to the fugacity of CO₂ during the experiments, calculated from the measured fluid compositions. The data were fit to the equationX_CO2^melt(ppm)= 0.492 fCO₂ (bar).

The insolubility of CO, compared to CO₂, may be related to the fact that dissolution of CO requires reduction of another species in the melt, whereas dissolution of CO₂ does not. Due to the fact that CO will be an important component of natural CO fluids at low pressures and low oxygen fugacities, equilibrium dissolved CO₂ contents will be less than calculated assuming pure CO₂ fluids, but as theC/O₂CO ratio in a pure CO fluid at fixed pressure and temperature is a direct function of oxygen fugacity, measurement of the oxygen fugacity of quenched glasses or trapped fluids in natural samples should allow saturation concentrations to be calculated. Dissolved CO₂ contents of somemorb are less than expected if they were in equilibrium with pure CO₂. These samples must, therefore, have been more reduced than average if they were fluid-saturated. Together with results from other studies of CO₂ and H₂O solubilities in basalt, the results of this study provide a comprehensive framework for modelling CO₂ solution inmorb.     

Evaluation of rainfall-runoff performance using the stochastic integral equation method

The stochastic integral equation method (S.I.E.M.) is used to evaluate the relative performance of a set of both calibrated and uncalibrated rainfall-runoff models with respect to prediction errors. The S.I.E.M. is also used to estimate confidence (prediction) interval values of a runoff criterion variable, given a prescribed rainfall-runoff model, and a similarity measure used to condition the storms that are utilized for model calibration purposes.Because of the increasing attention given to the issue of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling estimates, the S.I.E.M. provides a promising tool for the hydrologist to consider in both research and design.     

Caribbean hurricanes: changes of intensity and track prediction

The meteorological conditions of hurricanes passing near Puerto Rico (18N, 68W) are analyzed using composite daily reanalysis and satellite data. When an intense hurricane is present, the regional circulation is dominated by upper easterly flow over the Caribbean and central Atlantic and a surge of low-level westerly anomalies across the tropics. Warm SST anomalies extend along the coast of Venezuela, doubling the convective energy available to Caribbean hurricanes. Intensifying hurricanes tend to propagate westward with an atmospheric ridge over the Gulf Stream, in an environment with aerosol optical depth <0.6. Hurricanes form and strengthen in the east-shear phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation. Sinking motions and dry air appear in an anti-cyclonic gyre behind intensifying hurricanes. Numerical model 48-h forecasts of Caribbean hurricane tracks are analyzed over the period 2000–2010. A “slow right” bias is found east of Puerto Rico in comparison with observed.     

Late Quaternary paleo sea level geomorphological markers of opposite vertical movements at Salina volcanic island (Aeolian Arc)

Raised marine terraces and submerged insular shelves are used through an integrated approach as markers of relative sea level changes along the flanks of the Salina volcanic island (Aeolian Arc, southern Italy) for the purpose of evaluating its crustal vertical deformation pattern through time. Paleo sea level positions are estimated for the terrace inner margins exposed subaerially at different elevations and the erosive shelf edges recognized offshore at different depths. Compared with the eustatic sea levels at the main highstands (for the terraces) and lowstands (for the shelf edges) derived from the literature, these paleo sea level markers allowed us to reconstruct the interplay among different processes shaping the flanks of the island and, in particular, to quantify the pattern, magnitudes and rates of vertical movements affecting the different sectors of Salina since the time of their formation. A uniform uplift process at rates of 0.35 m ka⁻¹ during the Last Interglacial is estimated for Salina (extended to most of the Aeolian Arc) as evidence of a regional (tectonic) vertical deformation affecting the sub-volcanic basement in a subduction-related geodynamic context. Before that, a dominant subsidence at rates of 0.39–0.56 m ka⁻¹ is instead suggested for the time interval between 465 ka (MIS 12) and the onset of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5.5, 124 ka). By matching the insular shelf edges with the main lowstands of the sea level curve, a relative age attribution is provided for the (mostly) submerged volcanic centres on which the deepest (and oldest) insular shelves were carved, with insights on the chronological development of the older stages of Salina and the early emergence of the island. The shift from subsidence to uplift at the Last Interglacial suggests a major geodynamic change and variation of the stress regime acting on the Aeolian sub-volcanic basement. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.