Diurnal variation of the dayside, ionospheric, mid-latitude trough in the southern hemisphere at 800 km: Model and measurement comparison

Our high latitude ionospheric model predicts the existence of a pronounced “dayside” trough in plasma concentration equatorward of the auroral oval in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for solar maximum, winter, and low geomagnetic activity conditions. The trough in the Southern Hemisphere is much deeper than that in the Northern Hemisphere, with the minimum trough density at 800 km being 2 × 10³ cm⁻³ in the Southern Hemisphere and 10⁴ cm⁻³ in the Northern Hemisphere. The dayside trough has a strong longitudinal (diurnal) dependence and appears between 11:00 and 19:00 U.T. in the Southern Hemisphere and between 02:00 and 08:00 U.T. in the Northern Hemisphere. This dayside trough is a result of the auroral oval moving to larger solar zenith angles at those universal times when the magnetic pole is on the antisunward side of the geographic pole. As the auroral ionization source moves to higher geographic latitudes, it leaves a region of declining photoionization on the dayside. For low convection speeds, the ionosphere decays and a dayside trough forms. The trough is deeper in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere because of the greater offset between the geomagnetic and geographic poles. Satellite data taken in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres confirm the gross features of the dayside trough, including its strong longitudinal dependence, its depth, and the asymmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere troughs.     

Simulation of a Stably Stratified Atmospheric Boundary Layer Using One-Dimensional Turbulence

One-dimensional turbulence (ODT) is a single-column simulation in which vertical motions are represented by an unsteady advective process, rather than their customary representation by a diffusive process. No space or time averaging of mesh-resolved motions is invoked. Molecular-transport scales can be resolved in ODT simulations of laboratory-scale flows, but this resolution of these scales is prohibitively expensive in ODT simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), except possibly in small subregions of a non-uniform mesh.Here, two methods for ODT simulation of the ABL on uniform meshes are described and applied to the GABLS (GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study; GEWEX is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment) stable boundary-layer intercomparison case. One method involves resolution of the roughness scale using a fixed eddy viscosity to represent subgrid motions. The other method, which is implemented at lower spatial resolution, involves a variable eddy viscosity determined by the local mesh-resolved flow, as in multi-dimensional large-eddy simulation (LES). When run at typical LES resolution, it reproduces some of the key high-resolution results, but its fidelity is lower in some important respects. It is concluded that a more elaborate empirically based representation of the subgrid physics, closely analogous to closures currently employed in LES of the ABL, might improve its performance substantially, yielding a cost-effective ABL simulation tool. Prospects for further application of ODT to the ABL, including possible use of ODT as a near-surface subgrid closure framework for general circulation modeling, are assessed.     

An objective classification system of air mass types for Szeged, Hungary, with special interest in air pollution levels

Summary This paper determines the characteristic air mass types over the Carpathian Basin for the winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July and August) months dependant on levels of the main air pollutants. Based on the ECMWF data set, daily sea-level pressure fields analysed at 00 UTC were prepared for each air mass type (cluster) in order to relate sea-level pressure patterns with the level of air pollutants in Szeged. The data comprise daily values of twelve meteorological and eight pollutant parameters for the period 1997–2001. Objective definition of the characteristic air mass types is achieved by using the methods of Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis. According to the results, during the winter months five air mass types (clusters) were detected based on higher concentrations of primary pollutants that occur with high irradiance and low wind speed. This is the case when an anticyclone is found over the Carpathian Basin and over the region south of Hungary, influencing the weather of the country. Low levels of pollutants occur when zonal currents exert influence over Hungary. During the summer months anticyclones and anticyclone ridge situations are found over the Carpathian Basin. (During the prevalence of anticyclone ridge situations, the Carpathian Basin is found at the edge of a high pressure centre.) As a result of high irradiance and very low NO levels, secondary pollutants are highly enriched.     

An example of attenuation by wet snow on a radar dome

Abstract

A case study of the degradation of weather radar data by the accretion of wet snow on a radar dome is presented as a precautionary example to radar users. During the ERICA field program in 1989, accumulated precipitation on the radome at Halifax, Nova Scotia, attenuated signal in a distinctive, pie‐shaped sector on the upwind side of the radar.     

RELAXING ASSUMPTIONS OF PERFECT INFORMATION IN PARK VISITATION MODELS*

Variables related to urban park awareness are identified and methods for relaxing assumptions of perfect information in park use models are discussed. Park awareness is related to park characteristics (age and degree of development of the park), population characteristics (race, age, length of residence, recreation participation), and distance. Park attributes are stronger predictors of both park awareness and use than is distance. These findings parallel similar research on the cognitive aspects of shopping decisions.     

Isotope geochemistry and Re–Os geochronology of the Yanjiagou Mo deposit in the central North China Craton

The Yanjiagou deposit, located in the central North China Craton (NCC), is a newly found porphyry‐type Mo deposit. The Mo mineralization here is spatially associated with the Mapeng batholith. In this study, we identify four stages of ore formation in this deposit: pyrite phyllic stage (I), quartz–pyrite stage (II), quartz–pyrite–molybdenite stage (III), which is the main mineralization stage, and quartz–carbonate stage (IV). We present sulphur and lead isotope data on pyrite, and rhenium and osmium isotopes of molybdenite from the porphyry deposit and evaluate the timing and origin of ore formation. The δ³⁴S values of the pyrite range from ‐1.1‰ to −0.6‰, with an average of −0.875‰, suggesting origin from a mixture of magmatic/mantle sources and the basement rocks. The Pb isotope compositions of the pyrite show a range of 16.369 to 17.079 for ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, 15.201 to 15.355 for ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and 36.696 to 37.380 for ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, indicating that the ore‐forming materials were derived from a mixture of lower crust (or basement rocks) and mantle. Rhenium contents in molybdenite samples from the main ore stage are between 74.73 to 254.43 ppm, with an average of 147.9 ppm, indicating a mixed crustal‐mantle source for the metal. Eight molybdenite separates yield model ages ranging from 124.17 to 130.80 Ma and a mean model age of 128.46 Ma. An isochron age of 126.7 ± 1.1 Ma (MSWD = 2.1, initial ¹⁸⁷Os = 0.0032 ± 0.0012 ppb) is computed, which reveals a close link between the Mo mineralization and the magmatism that generated the Mapeng batholith. The age is close to the zircon U–Pb age of ca. 130 Ma from the batholith reported in a recent study. The age is also consistent with the timing of mineralization in the Fuping ore cluster in the central NCC, as well as the peak time of lithosphere thinning and destruction of the NCC. We evaluate the spatio‐temporal distribution of the Mo deposits in the NCC and identify three important molybdenum provinces along the northern and southern margins of the craton formed during three distinct episodes: Middle to Late Triassic (240–220 Ma), Early Jurassic (190–175 Ma), and Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous (150–125 Ma). The third period is considered to mark the most important metallogenic event, coinciding with the peak of lithosphere thinning and craton destruction in the NCC. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Delphi technique and judgmental forecasting

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.     

Condensed water in tropical cyclone “Oliver”, 8 February 1993

On February 8, 1993, the NASA DC-8 aircraft profiled from 10,000 to 37,000 feet (3.1–11.3 km) pressure altitude in a stratified section of tropical cyclone “Oliver” over the Coral Sea northeast of Australia. Size, shape and phase of cloud and precipitation particles were measured with a 2-D Greyscale probe. Cloud/ precipitation particles changed from liquid to ice as soon as the freezing level was reached near 17,000 feet (5.2 km) pressure altitude. The cloud was completely glaciated at −5°C. There was no correlation between ice particle habit and ambient temperature. In the liquid phase, the precipitation-cloud drop concentration was 4.0 × 10³ m⁻³, the geometric mean diameter D_g=0.5−0.7 mm, and the liquid water content 0.7−1.9 g m⁻³. The largest particles anywhere in the cloud, dominated by fused dendrites at concentrations similar to that of raindrops (2.5 × 10³ m⁻³) but a higher condensed water content (5.4 g m⁻³ estimated) were found in the mixed phase; condensed water is removed very effectively from the mixed layer due to high settling velocities of the large mixed particles. The highest number concentration (4.9 × 10⁴ m⁻³), smallest size (D_g=0.3−0.4 mm), largest surface area (up to 2.6 × 10² cm² m⁻³ at 0.4−1.0 g m⁻³ of condensate) existed in the ice phase at the coldest temperature (−40°C) at 35,000 feet (10.7 km). Each cloud contained aerosol (haze particles) in addition to cloud particles. The aerosol total surface area exceeded that of the cirrus particles at the coldest temperature. Thus, aerosols must play a significant role in the upscattering of solar radiation. Light extinction (6.2 km⁻¹) and backscatter (0.8 sr⁻¹ km⁻¹) was highest in the coldest portion of the cirrus cloud at the highest altitude.     

Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.