Sea Level Rise Affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water Elevation in the Flood Season and Implications for Rice Production

In this study, we assessed the impact of sea level rise, one of the most ascertained consequences of global climate change, for water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). We used a hydraulic model to compute water levels from August to November - when flooding is presently critical- under sea level rise scenarios of 20 cm (=Δ 20) and 45 cm (=Δ 45), respectively. The outputs show that the contour lines of water levels will be shifted up to 25 km (Δ 20) and 50 km (Δ 45) towards the sea due to higher sea levels. At the onset of the flood season (August), the average increment in water levels in the Delta is 14.1 cm (Δ 20) and 32.2 cm (Δ 45), respectively. At the peak of the flood season (October), high discharge from upstream attenuates the increment in water level, but average water level rise of 11.9 cm (Δ 20) and 27.4 cm (Δ 45), respectively, still imply a substantial aggravation of flooding problems in the VMD. GIS techniques were used to delineate areas with different levels of vulnerability, i.e., area with high (2.3 mio ha =60% of the VMD), medium (0.6 mio ha = 15%) and low (1 mio ha =25%) vulnerability due to sea level rise. Rice production will be affected through excessive flooding in the tidally inundated areas and longer flooding periods in the central part of the VMD. These adverse impacts could affect all three cropping seasons, Mua (main rainfed crop), Dong Xuan (Winter-Spring) and He Thu (Summer-Autumn) in the VMD unless preventive measures are taken.     

Evidence for a thick and localized ultra low shear velocity zone at the base of the mantle beneath the central Pacific

Prominent postcursors to S/Sdiff waves with delays as large as 26 s are observed in Northern America for Papua New Guinea events. These waves sample the northern side of the Pacific large low shear velocity province revealed by global shear velocity (Vs) tomographic models. The emergence of the postcursors strongly depends on the epicenter-to-station azimuth, indicating that the waveforms are, in general, strongly affected by 3-dimensional (3D) heterogeneities. We limit our focus to an azimuthal range around 60°, measured clockwise from north at the epicenter, where the records show a relatively small azimuthal variation, suggesting a relatively small 3D effect there. In this azimuthal range we attempt 2D structural modelling along the great circle plane towards stations in southern US. First, we use a 2D ray theory to search for a range of models, which generate a postcursor to the main Sdiff phase with a delay time consistent with the observations. Then, for some typical models, we calculated waveforms at periods down to 5 s using the spectral element method. We obtained several models that provide synthetic waveforms in a fair agreement with the observations. The result shows that two types of low Vs regions are required to explain the data. One is a broad and weak anomaly region with a Vs reduction of 5% or so, constituting a part of the Pacific large low shear velocity province at the base of the mantle. The other is a laterally localized strong anomaly region with a more than 25% reduction of Vs within a thickness of at least 80 km and a width on the order of 500 km.     

Temperature projection in a tropical city using remote sensing and dynamic modeling

Recent temperature projections for urban areas have only been able to reflect the expected change due to greenhouse-induced warming, with little attempt to predict urbanisation effects. This research examines temperature changes due to both global warming and urbanisation independently and applies them differentially to urban and rural areas over a sub-tropical city, Hong Kong. The effect of global warming on temperature is estimated by regressing IPCC data from eight Global Climate Models against the background temperature recorded at a rural climate station. Results suggest a mean background temperature increase of 0.67 °C by 2039. To model temperature changes for different degrees of urbanization, long-term temperature records along with a measureable urbanisation parameter, plot ratio surrounding different automatic weather stations (AWS) were used. Models representing daytime and nighttime respectively were developed, and a logarithmic relationship between the rate of temperature change and plot ratio (degree of urbanisation) is observed. Baseline air temperature patterns over Hong Kong for 2009 were derived from two ASTER thermal satellite images, for summer daytime and nighttime respectively. Dynamic raster modeling was employed to project temperatures to 2039 in 10-year intervals on a per-pixel basis according to the degree of urbanization predicted. Daytime and nighttime temperatures in the highly urbanized areas are expected to rise by ca. 2 °C by 2039. Validation by projecting observed temperature trends at AWS, gave low average RMS errors of 0.19 °C for daytime and 0.14 °C for nighttime, and suggests the reliability of the method.     

Aridity in Vojvodina, Serbia

For investigating aridity in Vojvodina, two parameters were used: the De Martonne aridity index and the Pinna combinative index. These indices were chosen as the most suitable for the analysis of climate in Vojvodina (a region in northern part of Serbia). Also, these indices were calculated from data obtained from 10 meteorological stations for the period from 1949 to 2006. The spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal De Martonne and the Pinna combinative indices as well as the mean monthly values of the De Martonne index and aridity trends of these indices are presented. There were two, four, and five types of climate on a yearly, seasonal, and monthly basis in Vojvodina, according to the De Martonne climate classification which consists of a total of seven types. In addition, semi-humid and humid climate types were represented in the region, on a yearly basis. The winter season was dominated by wetter types of climate, while the summer season was characterized by drier ones. During the spring and autumn seasons, there were types of climate which range between both aforementioned types. Two out of three climate types, which can be identified using the Pinna combinative index, were registered in Vojvodina region. The most dominant climate type was the semidry Mediterranean with formal Mediterranean vegetation, while the humid type was only identified in one small part of southwestern Vojvodina. The calculated values of both aridity indices showed that there were no annual trends. Therefore, it can be considered that there were no recent aridity changes during the observed period. For paleoclimate, the general story is more complex. The lack of aridity trends in the recent period from 1949 to 2006 supports the fact that Vojvodina has very well preserved loess–palaeosol sequences from the Middle and Late Pleistocene, which indicates that crucial point for their preservation was caused by the weak aridity variability in the region.     

Role of fluids in surface deformation caused by the 1999 Chi‐Chi earthquake in Taiwan

The 1999 Chi‐Chi earthquake significantly altered the landscape of central Taiwan. Surface deformation produced by the earthquake along the trace of the Chelungpu thrust can be classified into two styles: (1) uplift without significant surface rupture, and (2) uplift accompanied by surface rupture. Here we examine areas that exhibited the first style of deformation (e.g. Wufeng). Seismic stress at the time of the main shock may have been relieved by high pore‐fluid pressure in a 300‐m‐thick sand and gravel aquifer. Along the thrust fault, frictional heating of these sediments resulted in thermal expansion and an increase in pore‐fluid pressure. High pore‐fluid pressure damped seismic‐wave energy and enhanced intergranular slips of unconsolidated sandy and gravel sediments, which were possibly assisted by sulphuric acid corrosion, leading to a high sulphate content in the groundwater (c. 70 mg L^?1). These changes permitted surface folding and terrace‐style uplifting to occur without significant rupture. In contrast, other areas in which the second style of deformation is dominant (e.g. Fengyuen‐Shihkang) have thin (0–10 m) sand and gravel deposits and lower concentrations of sulphate (c. 30 mg L^?1) in groundwater. In these areas, sediments were heated but not sufficiently to produce significant thermal expansion and increase in pore‐fluid pressure; accumulation of stress in these locations led to rupture at the ground surface, with the formation of steep fault scarps. The areas exhibiting the first deformation style are characterized by the presence of high pore‐fluid pressure, frictional heat conduction, and possibly chemical corrosion related to sulphuric acid attack and formation of sulphate, in contrast to those involving significant uplift and surface rupture. The areal distribution of these two surface deformation styles suggests that the aforementioned fluid‐related subsurface processes may have altered the characteristics of sediments and caused diverse responses to the quake. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in extreme summer temperatures at Belgrade

Summary Trends in extreme temperatures have been investigated for the Belgrade temperature record (1975–2003) to assess how an increase in the mean summer temperatures is related to changes in the extreme maximum and minimum temperatures. The rising mean summer temperatures at Belgrade are associated with a substantial increase in the occurrence of extreme maximum temperatures. Two statistical models for climate change (changing mean with constant standard deviation, and changing mean and standard deviation) indicated that the changing mean was dominant, because the observed trend in standard deviation was small.     

Flood and Typhoon Disasters in Viet Nam in the Half Century Since 1950

Disasters in Viet Nam are discussed by compiling recent data on the geophysical and social environments, the frequency of disasters, and the values of human and financial losses in 1953–1991. Examinations of yearly frequency and damages caused by typhoons indicate a relatively increasing value of losses in spite of a constant or decreasing frequency in the decade of the 1980s, meaning inadequate prevention programs. The two successive typhoons in 1985 are described as the most catastrophic disaster for 100 years, in which high waves combined with high tides destroyed the dike system and flooded a large area in the central part of Viet Nam, which suggests some serious deficiencies in prevention efforts, especially in coastal areas. Disasters on the coast have been significant because of the rapid growth of the population in the low lands and the destruction of coastal environments, such as coastal erosion caused by a deforestation of mangroves and a short supply of sand. As an example, coastal erosion at Ha Nam Nimh province in the northern part of Viet Nam at an average receding speed of around 15 m/year is described.     

Determination of undrained strength of fine-grained soils by means of SPT and its application in Turkey

The Standard Penetration Test (SPT) is one of the oldest and the most common in situ test used in soil explorations. In the recent years with the advent of new technology and techniques in determining the drawbacks in SPT, several researchers have attempted to correlate corrected field measured values with several soil properties. In this context, corrections applied to field values have become critical. In this study a questionnaire including the performance of the standard penetration test and equipment used in practice in Turkey is circulated in order to determine the relevant correction factors. Thus the appropriate corrections are used in acquiring corrected SPT-N values. The relationships between SPT-N and the undrained shear strength (S_u) are examined from the statistical point of view by taking the test types and SPT corrections into consideration, and comparison is made with previous studies. It is observed that SPT corrections play an important role on the obtained correlation equations. In addition, the importance of the effects of test types on the correlations is also emphasized. The Standard Penetration Test is found to be sufficient for reliable assessment of S_u.