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131.
132.
This paper identifies two sources of uncertainties in model projections of temperature and precipitation: internal and inter-model variability. Eight models of WCRP-CMIP3 and WCRP-CMIP5 were compared to identify improvements in the reliability of projections from new generation models. While no significant differences are observed between both datasets, some improvements were found in the new generation models. For example, in summer CMIP5 inter-model variability of temperature was lower over northeastern Argentina, Paraguay and northern Brazil, in the last decades of the 21st century. Reliability of temperature projections from both sets of models is high, with signal to noise ratio greater than 1 over most of the study region. Although no major differences were observed in both precipitation datasets, CMIP5 inter-model variability was lower over northern and eastern Brazil in summer (especially at the end of the 21st century). Reliability of precipitation projections was low in both datasets. However, the signal to noise ratio in new generation models was close to 1, and even greater than 1 over eastern Argentina, Uruguay and southern Brazil in some seasons. 相似文献
133.
Winter-to-spring temperature dynamics in Turkey derived from tree rings since AD 1125 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Ingo Heinrich Ramzi Touchan Isabel Dorado Liñán Heinz Vos Gerhard Helle 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):1685-1701
In the eastern Mediterranean in general and in Turkey in particular, temperature reconstructions based on tree rings have not been achieved so far. Furthermore, centennial-long chronologies of stable isotopes are generally also missing. Recent studies have identified the tree species Juniperus excelsa as one of the most promising tree species in Turkey for developing long climate sensitive stable carbon isotope chronologies because this species is long-living and thus has the ability to capture low-frequency climate signals. We were able to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD 1125. We proved that variability of δ13C in tree rings of J. excelsa is mainly dependent on winter-to-spring temperatures (January–May). Low-frequency trends, which were associated with the medieval warm period and the little ice age, were identified in the winter-to-spring temperature reconstruction, however, the twentieth century warming trend found elsewhere could not be identified in our proxy record, nor was it found in the corresponding meteorological data used for our study. Comparisons with other northern-hemispherical proxy data showed that similar low-frequency signals are present until the beginning of the twentieth century when the other proxies derived from further north indicate a significant warming while the winter-to-spring temperature proxy from SW-Turkey does not. Correlation analyses including our temperature reconstruction and seven well-known climate indices suggest that various atmospheric oscillation patterns are capable of influencing the temperature variations in SW-Turkey. 相似文献
134.
In most of the studies on scale properties in the rainfall process, multifractal behavior has been investigated without taking into account the different rain generation mechanisms involved. However, it is known that rain processes are related to certain scales, determined by climatological characteristics as well as regional and local meteorological features. One of the implications derived from these correspondences is the possibility that the multifractal parameters of the rainfall could depend on the dominant precipitation generation mechanism. Fractal analysis techniques have been applied in this work to rainfall data recorded in the metropolitan area of Barcelona in the period 1994–2001, as well as to a selection of synoptic rainfall events registered in the same city in the period 1927–1992. The multifractal parameters obtained have been significantly different in each case probably showing the influence of the rain generation mechanisms involved. This influence has been revealed also in the analysis of the effects of seasonality on the multifractal behavior of rainfall in Barcelona. 相似文献
135.
José I. Muñoz 《Climate Policy》2013,13(2):87-105
How does financial performance risk affect investments in low-carbon electricity-generating technologies to achieve climate policy targets? A detailed risk simulation of price formation in the Great Britain wholesale power market is used to show that the increasing replacement of fossil facilities with wind, ceteris paribus, may cause a deterioration of the financial risk–return performance metrics for incremental investments. Low-carbon investments appear to be high risk, low return, and as such may require a progressively higher level of support over time than envisaged by the conventional degression trajectories. The increasing riskiness of the wholesale market will to some extent offset the benefits of lower capital costs and operational efficiencies if investors need to satisfy cautious debt coverage ratios alongside positive expected returns. This increased risk is additional to the well-known ‘merit order effect’ of low-carbon investments progressively depressing wholesale prices and hence their expected investment returns. Policy relevance Policy support for renewable technologies such as wind is usually based upon levelized costs and is expected to reduce over time as capital costs and operational efficiencies improve. However, levelized costs do not take full account of the risk aversion that investors may have in practice. Expected policy support reductions may be moderated to some extent by the increased financial performance risk that intermittent technologies bring to the power market. The annual risk-return profiles for incremental investments deteriorate for all technologies as wind replaces fossil fuels. This extra risk premium will need to be incorporated into evaluating policy incentives for new investments in a decarbonizing power market. 相似文献
136.
F. Arévalo P. Cifuentes Samuel Lepe Francisco Peña 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2014,352(2):899-907
In a flat Friedmann–Lemaitre–Robertson–Walker background, a scheme of dark matter–dark energy interaction is studied considering a holographic Ricci-like model for the dark energy. Without giving a priori some specific model for the interaction function, we show that this function can experience a change of sign during the cosmic evolution. The parameters involved in the holographic model are adjusted with Supernova data and we obtained results compatible with the observable universe. 相似文献
137.
Pablo M. Cincotta Juan C. Muzzio Josué A. Núñez 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1991,52(3):263-275
We use the impulse approximation to derive analytical formulae for the escape probability from a simple binary system that interacts with a third body. The binary system is made up of a mass-less body in circular orbit around a massive object, and we assume that the two massive bodies follow a Schuster (or Plummer) distribution. Within the ranges imposed by the impulsive approximation to the parameters of the encounter, we find good agreement between our results and those obtained from numerical experiments. 相似文献
138.
Josep Maria Trigo-Rodriguez Jeremie Vaubaillon José Luís Ortiz Alberto Castro-Tirado Jordi Llorca Esko Lyytinen Martin Jelínek Antonio de Ugarte Postigo Pablo Santos Sanz Francisco J. Aceituno Castro Albert Sánchez Caso Antonio Bernal González Juan Pastor Erades Francisco Ocaña 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2005,97(3-4):269-278
Jupiter and Saturn produce important gravitational impulses on meteoroids released by comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle. The meteoroids from this comet once released follow retrograde orbits that during their periodic approaches to these planets (within 1.6 and 0.9 A.U., respectively) are impulsed gaining orbital energy. This perturbation effect is translated into a net inward shift in the node of the perturbed meteoroids. Such geometry with Jupiter occurred in 2004 over a meteoroid trail ejected by this comet during the 1862 A.D. return of the comet to perihelion. In order to study the predicted outburst produced by one-revolution meteoroids, the Spanish Photographic Meteor Network (SPMN) performed an extensive campaign. As a part of this observational effort here are presented 10 accurate meteoroid orbits. We discuss their origin by comparing them with the theoretical orbital elements of the dust trails intercepting the Earth during the 2004 Perseid return. 相似文献
139.
P.J. Arango A. Devia A.F. Rojas C.A. Peña J.A. Ortiz E. Restrepo 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,256(1-2):517-521
We have been studying direct current glow discharges aiming at the production of different paint of coatings on steel substrates. In a set of preliminary experiments, long lasting (hours) discharges performed in a Nitrogen atmosphere between a stell anode (holding the substrates) and a titanium cathode separated by a small gap (few mm) produced very thin coatings of the substrates whose colour depend on the parameter of (interelectrodes gap, gas pressure, discharge current and time duration). In some conditions, the coatings showed a golden colour, typical of the Nti compound. A discussion of the results is given. 相似文献
140.
Introductory review of specific factors influencing urban groundwater, an emerging branch of hydrogeology, with reference to Barcelona, Spain 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
A number of specific factors must be considered when dealing with groundwater in urban areas. Urbanization significantly affects the natural water cycle, both in terms of quantity and quality. In particular, the main contributors to recharge and discharge clearly differ from those in natural systems. Moreover, water can affect underground structures and infrastructure characteristics of cities such as basements, public transport services (trains, underground railways, etc.), and utility conduits. As a result, urban groundwater is emerging as a distinct branch of hydrogeology. The objective of this paper is to review some of the topics that are specific to urban groundwater. These include (1) fluctuations in groundwater levels caused by changes in land and water uses; (2) pollution problems caused by point or non-point sources in urban areas; (3) characterization and quantification of the components contributing to groundwater recharge and discharge; (4) specific characteristics of groundwater flow and solute transport models in urban areas; and (5) integration of data for sustainable urban water management. Some of these issues are illustrated for the particular case of Barcelona, where a comprehensive hydrogeological study has been carried out during the last few years by both the public and the private sectors.
Resumen Se debe considerar una serie de factores específicos al tratar las aguas subterráneas en áreas urbanas. El proceso de urbanización afecta el ciclo natural del agua de manera significativa tanto en lo que se refiere a cantidad como a calidad. En particular, los contribuyentes principales a la recarga y descarga claramente difieren de aquellos aplicables a los sistemas naturales. Es más, el agua puede afectar los estructuras subterráneas de las ciudades tales como sótanos, servicios de transporte público (trenes, trenes subterráneos) y los servicios básicos. Como resultado de esto, la hidrogeologia urbana está emergiendo como una rama específica de la hidrogeología. El objectivo de este artículo es revisar algunos de los temas que son específicos al agua subterránea urbana. Estos incluyen: 1) Fluctuaciones en los niveles de agua subterránea causados por cambios en los usos de terreno y del agua; 2) Problemas de contaminación causados por fuentes puntuales o no puntuales en áreas urbanas; 3) Caracterización y cuantificación de los componentes que contribuyen a la recarga y descarga de agua subterránea; 4) Características especificas de flujo de agua subterránea y modelos de transporte de solutos en áreas urbanas; y 5) Integración de datos para el manejo sostenible de agua urbana. Algunos de estos puntos se han ilustrados para el caso particular de Barcelona en donde se ha llevado a cabo un estudio hidrogeológico amplio durante los últimos años tanto por el sector privado como el público.
Résumé Une série de facteurs spécifiques doit être considérée lorsque leau souterraine en région urbaine est étudiée. Lurbanisation affecte significativement le cycle naturel de leau, autant du point de vue quantitatif que qualitatif. Plus particulièrement, les zones de recharge et de décharge diffèrent considérablement des systèmes naturels. Leau souterraine peut affecter les structures souterraines ainsi que les infrastructures municipales telles que les sous-sols, les systèmes de transport publique (trains, métros, ...) et les conduits de service. De ce fait, lhydrogéologie en milieu urbain émerge comme une branche distincte de lhydrogéologie classique. Lobjectif de cet article est de revoir certaines notions qui sont spécifiques à létude de leau souterraine en milieu urbain. Parmi ces notions : 1) les fluctuations de la nappe phréatique causées par des changements dans lutilisation du territoire et de leau, 2) les problèmes de pollution causés par des sources ponctuelles ou diffuses en milieu urbain, 3) la caractérisation et quantification des composants qui contribuent à la recharge et décharge des aquifères, 4) les caractéristiques spécifiques des modèles découlement de leau souterraine et de transport de solutés en milieux urbain, et 5) lintégration des données pour la gestion durable de leau en milieu urbain. Certaines de ces questions sont étudiées pour le cas particulier de la ville de Barcelone où une étude hydrogéologique complète a été menée au cours des dernières années par les secteurs privé et public.相似文献