随机Petri网在地震应急协同能力定量评价与动态分析中的应用

地震应急是一个复杂动态的过程,需要各部门协同配合方能高效开展应急工作。本文通过调研分析历史地震应急处置案例,提出了Ⅰ、Ⅱ级应急响应下多主体地震应急协同的一般流程,构建了相应的随机Petri网模型,并基于Petri网可能出现的状态集同构马尔科夫链,在计算各应急状态稳定概率的基础上,定量评价应急协同能力。同时,将应急过程中利用率高的变迁所对应的应急行为,作为应急处置的关键环节。通过调整各关键环节的应急速率,进一步对应急协同能力进行动态分析,进而提出有效提高应急协同联动能力的相关建议,为科学开展地震应急处置工作提供支持。     

含油气盆地蒸发盐矿物成因类型及其地质意义*

中国是一个多盐湖国家,然而盐湖研究主要集中于分析湖水化学性质、盐类物质来源和盐矿资源开发等,对盐类矿物沉积特征和埋藏成岩改造研究较少,造成从蒸发岩角度去理解古代盐湖盆地的油气富集规律较为困难。在广泛阅读国内外大型盐湖文献的基础上,笔者介绍了盐湖分类方案和蒸发岩中盐类矿物的主要成因类型,并总结了中国陆相含油气盆地中常见的硫酸盐、氯化物、含钠碳酸盐和硼酸盐的沉积—成岩过程及其古环境和古气候意义。同时,尝试利用盐湖沉积最新研究成果去探讨中国含油气盆地蒸发岩研究中存在争议或值得关注的问题,得出: (1)深部热液可为湖泊输送大量元素离子,但要在湖泊环境下富集大量蒸发岩,则(半)干旱气候和蒸发浓缩作用是前提条件;(2)易溶蒸发岩(如石盐)在沉积中心单层厚度大,而在斜坡—边缘区缺失,这是季节性气温变化和温跃层浮动引发“中心聚集效应”的结果;(3)温度可影响蒸发岩中盐类矿物溶解度、晶体结构形态和发育深度,而部分无水盐类矿物在常温常压下却无法结晶,这一现象可用来指示古地温和地层埋藏史;(4)碳酸盐型盐湖中的Na-碳酸盐种类可指示大气CO₂浓度和古温度。     

兰州第四纪黄土/古土壤序列物源演变: 来自于碳酸盐矿物的证据*

黄土/古土壤的物源研究对于揭示第四纪气候变化和青藏高原隆升历史具有重要意义。本研究以位于黄土高原西部1.4 Ma以来的兰州黄土/古土壤沉积序列为研究对象,基于X射线衍射技术分析了黄土/古土壤中的主要矿物组成,侧重于碳酸盐矿物含量,追溯了兰州黄土/古土壤的直接物源。结果显示: (1)1.4 Ma以来兰州地区黄土/古土壤沉积物的主要直接源区为柴达木盆地沙漠区和阿拉善干旱区。(2)基于二元混合模型计算的潜在原始源区对兰州黄土白云石和总碳酸盐矿物的相对贡献率以及长石与石英比值结果一致支持1.4 Ma以来兰州黄土原始物源发生了多次变化。1.4~1.1 Ma和0.9~0.3 Ma青藏高原东北缘造山带(昆仑山、祁连山)和中亚造山带对兰州黄土的贡献相当,而1.1~0.9 Ma和0.3 Ma以来,中亚造山带对兰州黄土的物源贡献增加,这可能分别是对中更新世气候转型和0.3 Ma以来青藏高原及邻近地区干冷气候增强的响应。1.15 Ma和0.8 Ma兰州黄土/古土壤中高的白云石含量、碳酸盐矿物总含量以及0.8 Ma长石与石英比值的快速升高可能是对“昆黄运动”的响应,进而造成了昆仑山、祁连山对黄土高原物源贡献的增加。     

Deformation characteristics of inherently anisotropic granular media under repeated traffic loading: a DEM study

Acta Geotechnica - The cardioid-shaped loading path induced by moving traffic has been reproduced in the virtual element test of granular media using the discrete element method (DEM). The DEM...     

Behaviour of an outward inclined-vertical framed retaining wall of an excavation

Acta Geotechnica - A new excavation retaining structure, referred to as an outward inclined-vertical framed retaining wall (OIVFRW), has been developed and adopted in practice. This retaining...     

Temporal variations of reference evapotranspiration and controlling factors: Implications for climatic drought in karst areas

Variations in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) and drought characteristics play a key role in the effect of climate change on water cycle and associated ecohydrological patterns. The accurate estimation of ET₀ is still a challenge due to the lack of meteorological data and the heterogeneity of hydrological system. Although there is an increasing trend in extreme drought events with global climate change, the relationship between ET₀ and aridity index in karst areas has been poorly studied. In this study, we used the Penman–Monteith method based on a long time series of meteorological data from 1951 to 2015 to calculate ET₀ in a typical karst area, Guilin, Southwest China. The temporal variations in climate variables, ET₀ and aridity index (AI) were analyzed with the Mann–Kendall trend test and linear regression to determine the climatic characteristics, associated controlling factors of ET₀ variations, and further to estimate the relationship between ET₀ and AI. We found that the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures had increased significantly during the 65-year study period, while sunshine duration, wind speed and relative humidity exhibited significant decreasing trends. The annual ET₀ showed a significant decreasing trend at the rate of ?8.02 mm/10a. However, significant increase in air temperature should have contributed to the enhancement of ET₀, indicating an “evaporation paradox”. In comparison, AI showed a slightly declining trend of ?0.0005/a during 1951–2015. The change in sunshine duration was the major factor causing the decrease in ET₀, followed by wind speed. AI had a higher correlation with precipitation amount, indicating that the variations of AI was more dependent on precipitation, but not substantially dependent on the ET₀. Although AI was not directly related to ET₀, ET₀ had a major contribution to seasonal AI changes. The seasonal variations of ET₀ played a critical role in dryness/wetness changes to regulate water and energy supply, which can lead to seasonal droughts or water shortages in karst areas. Overall, these findings provide an important reference for the management of agricultural production and water resources, and have an important implication for drought in karst regions of China.     

基于颗粒阻尼器的多鼓型古柱抗震性能研究

为保护地震作用下历史遗迹帕特农神庙多鼓石柱,提出将破损的石鼓替换为填充颗粒的空鼓,以减轻多鼓石柱动力响应。本文基于PFC3D与FLAC3D软件,实现了离散-有限耦合作用,模拟了附有颗粒阻尼器帕特农神庙多鼓型石柱,研究了颗粒阻尼器对帕特农神庙石柱的减震效果,并分析地震强度、频率、阻尼器位置等因素对减震效果的影响。研究结果表明,将颗粒阻尼器替换破损的空鼓,PFC3D与FLAC3D耦合计算结果与试验结果基本一致,减震效果显著,说明耦合分析方法研究颗粒阻尼器抗震性能具有较高的可靠性;地震强度不同时,分层颗粒阻尼器仍可较好地耗散能量;颗粒阻尼器对结构的减震性能受激励频率的影响显著,频率越高,减震效果越好;颗粒阻尼器布置在古柱中上部减震效果优于布置在古柱下部。     

五指山台DSQ水管倾斜仪和VP垂直摆观测数据质量对比分析

通过对五指山台DSQ水管倾斜仪和VP垂直摆的观测数据统计,精度内在质量以及同震形变波分析,认为连续率、漂移量、内精度资料质量指标均符合形变要求规范。水管倾斜仪和VP垂直摆对不同震中距的地震记录存在较大差异:①当震中距较小时,水管仪无同震响应,VP垂直摆同震记录清晰;②当震中距＞6000 km时,两种仪器记录能力相当。      

Projection of droughts and their socioeconomic exposures based on terrestrial water storage anomaly over China

Science China Earth Sciences - Global warming has altered the thermodynamic and dynamic environments of the climate system, thus affecting the energy budget and water cycle process of the...     

Rapid report of the 8 January 2022 ​MS 6.9 Menyuan earthquake,Qinghai, China

The M_S 6.9 Menyuan earthquake in Qinghai Province, west China is the largest earthquake by far in 2022. The earthquake occurs in a tectonically active region, with a background b-value of 0.87 within 100 ?km of the epicenter that we derived from the unified catalog produced by China Earthquake Networks Center since late 2008. Field surveys have revealed surface ruptures extending 22 ?km along strike, with a maximum ground displacement of 2.1 ?m. We construct a finite fault model with constraints from InSAR observations, which showed multiple fault segments during the Menyuan earthquake. The major slip asperity is confined within 10 ?km at depth, with the maximum slip of 3.5 ?m. Near real-time back-projection results of coseismic radiation indicate a northwest propagating rupture that lasted for ～10 ?s. Intensity estimates from the back-projection results show up to a Mercalli scale of IX near the ruptured area, consistent with instrumental measurements and the observations from the field surveys. Aftershock locations (up to January 21, 2022) exhibit two segments, extending to ～20 ?km in depth. The largest one reaches M_S 5.3, locating near the eastern end of the aftershock zone. Although the location and the approximate magnitude of the mainshock had been indicated by previous studies based on paleoearthquake records and seismic gap, as well as estimated stressing rate on faults, significant surface-breaching rupture leads to severe damage of the high-speed railway system, which poses a challenge in accurately assessing earthquake hazards and risks, and thus demands further investigations of the rupture behaviors for crustal earthquakes.