近场强震动记录基线校正方法的振动台实验研究

为了获取近场永久位移,通常采用基线校正方法,对近场加速度记录进行基线校正并积分得到永久位移值,但这一结果主观性较强,其可靠性也往往缺乏验证。为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种能产生包含永久位移振动过程的振动台实验方案,采用振动台加滑动机构的方法,模拟记录到永久位移台站测点的真实振动情况;在实验中分别采用加速度计、摄影测量方法分别直接得到加速度和位移时程,对加速度时程进行基线校正并积分得到位移时程,将其与直接获得的位移时程进行对比,以验证采用基线校正方法的有效性。实验结果表明,在实验室条件下采用现有的基线校正方法校正后,通过积分能得到可以接受的位移时程。     

基于Fisher判别的南方双季稻低温灾害等级预警

为了建立南方双季稻低温灾害综合预测预警技术体系, 基于南方双季稻种植区1961—2010年708个气象站的逐日气象资料、水稻生育期资料和低温灾害发生的气象行业标准,采用Fisher判别分析法、因子膨化法、相关性分析法,利用SPSS软件构建早稻春季低温灾害高风险区 (Ⅰ区) 未来10 d、晚稻寒露风高风险区 (Ⅰ区)、主灾区 (Ⅱ区) 未来5 d的低温灾害发生等级逐日滚动预警模型。其中,1961—2009年资料用于模型构建和回代检验,2010年资料用于模型的外延预测。结果表明:早稻、晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅰ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别达到90.5%,74.2%,80.3%,晚粳稻、晚籼稻Ⅱ区平均外延预测基本一致准确率分别为89.4%和80.3%。构建的南方双季稻低温灾害逐日滚动预警模型的外延预测基本一致准确率多超过80%,等级预测检验误差总体上在1个等级以内,模型评价效果较好。     

半干旱地区洪水模拟效果差异性分析及影响因子响应评估

中国北方半干旱地区的降水与下垫面条件具有明显的时空异质性,如何完整准确地描述该类区域的水文过程是当代水文学研究的难点之一.选择半干旱地区水文实验区域——绥德流域和曹坪流域,通过构建不同时空规律的降水场,并结合3种不同产流机制的水文模型,进行大型数值模拟实验,去探究时间、空间、产流机制等因素对半干旱地区洪水模拟的影响,为该类地区水文模型的研制工作提供借鉴.结果 表明:1)半干旱地区中小流域的产流对降雨强度较为敏感,因此降水输入的时间步长对洪水模拟效果的影响程度较大;相比之下,流域雨量站数量的增减,仅体现在降雨分布场的暴雨中心缺失以及面平均降雨量的微小差别,对洪水模拟效果的影响程度较小.2)水文模型能否准确描述主导水文过程是半干旱地区洪水模拟效果优良的关键,流域的尺度效应及其下垫面条件的空间异质性是半干旱地区不同水文模型研制和调整应当优先考虑的问题,无论时间步长、雨量站数量怎么组合,产流结构适宜的模型其模拟效果总是趋于较好的结果.     

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indicator-based spatiotemporal characteristics of apple drought in North China

Natural Hazards - Frequent occurrences of drought stress caused by dry weather create severe destroy in apple yield and quality in North China. Although appropriate drought stress is beneficial to...     

Strength Analysis on Brace Structure for Semi-Submersible in Consideration of Wave Slamming

Slamming on bracings of column stabilized units shall be considered as a possible limiting criterion under transit condition based on the requirements in DNV-OS-C103. However, the wave slamming loads under survival condition were ignored for the strength analysis of the brace structures in many semi-submersible projects. In this paper, a method of strength analysis of brace structure is proposed based on the reconstruction and extrapolation of numerical model. The full-scale mooring system, the wind, wave and current loads can be considered simultaneously. Firstly, the model tests of the semi-submersible platform in wind tunnel and wave tanker have been carried out. Secondly, the numerical models of the platform are reconstructed and extrapolated based on the results of model tests. Then, a nonlinear numerical analysis has been conducted to study the wave slamming load on brace in semi-submersible platform through the reconstructed and extrapolated numerical model. For the randomness of wave load, ten subcases under each condition have been carried out. The value of the 90% Gumble distribution values of the ten subcases are used. Finally, the strength on brace structure has been analyzed considering the wave slamming. The wave slamming loads have been compared between the survival condition and transit condition with the method. The results indicate that wave slamming under survival condition is more critical than that under transit condition. Meanwhile, the wave slamming is significant to the structural strength of the brace. It should be overall considered in the strength analysis of the brace structure.     

Binary Star Fractions from the LAMOST DR4

Stellar systems composed of single, double, triple or higher-order systems are rightfully regarded as the fundamental building blocks of the Milky Way. Binary stars play an important role in formation and evolution of the Galaxy. Through comparing the radial velocity variations from multiepoch observations, we analyze the binary fraction of dwarf stars observed with LAMOST. Effects of different model assumptions, such as orbital period distributions on the estimate of binary fractions,are investigated. The results based on log-normal distribution of orbital periods reproduce the previous complete analyses better than the power-law distribution. We find that the binary fraction increases with Teff and decreases with [Fe/H]. We first investigate the relation between α-elements and binary fraction in such a large sample as provided by LAMOST. The old stars with high [α/Fe] dominate with a higher binary fraction than young stars with low [α/Fe]. At the same mass, earlier forming stars possess a higher binary fraction than newly forming ones, which may be related with evolution of the Galaxy.     

冀北侏罗系上统火山岩中宇宙尘的发现及其地质意义

在冀北丰宁、沽源、赤城一带的上侏罗统火山岩中发现有不同形态的铁质及玻璃质微球粒。经电镜扫描及外貌结构构造的鉴定，显示有熔融、碰撞、逸气、旋纹、冷疑、收缩等特征；经电子探针及Ｘ射线粉晶衍射分析，认为是宇宙尘。对其进行研究不仅有重要的地质意义，而且有找矿意义。     

CT定位用于眼面部异物诊断治疗

本文报告２６例由于外力作用致使眼面部广泛异物存留。临床应用Ｘ线的归咎常见漏诊及定位困难，因此采取ＣＴ定位达到异物诊断治疗目的。