利用TMI资料估计西北太平洋热带气旋强度的客观方法

利用2007—2009年热带降雨测量卫星(TRMM)微波成像仪(TMI)观测的亮温资料,建立一种西北太平洋热带气旋强度(Tropical Cyclone,TC)的估计模型,对2010年热带气旋进行独立估计试验,并对估计误差进行分析。结果表明:该模型对强度小于强台风TC的拟合效果较好,均方根误差约为5 m/s,平均绝对误差约为4 m/s;对强台风和超强台风TC的拟合误差较大,均方根误差分别为9.65和6.60 m/s,平均绝对误差分别为7.76和5.49 m/s;对强台风及以上强度的TC,模型的拟合误差在日(夜)间减小(增大),误差最小(大)值为6.00 m/s(11.96 m/s),说明估计值在日(夜)间偏大(小)。     

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium

To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.     

Simulation of the equatorially asymmetric mode of the Hadley circulation in CMIP5 models

The tropical Hadley circulation (HC) plays an important role in influencing the climate in the tropics and extra-tropics. The realism of the climatological characteristics, spatial structure, and temporal evolution of the long-term variation of the principal mode of the annual mean HC (i.e., the equatorially asymmetric mode, EAM) was examined in model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The results showed that all the models are moderately successful in capturing the HC's climatological features, including the spatial pattern, meridional extent, and intensity, but not the spatial or temporal variation of the EAM. The possible reasons for the poor simulation of the long-term variability of the EAM were explored. None of the models can successfully capture the differences in the warming rate between the tropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) and Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is considered to be an important driver for the variation of the AM. Most of the models produce a faster warming in the NH than in the SH, which is the reverse of the observed trend. This leads to a reversed trend in the meridional gradient between the SH and NH, and contributes to the poor simulation of EAM variability. Thus, this aspect of the models should be improved to provide better simulations of the variability of the HC. This study suggests a possible reason for the poor simulation of the HC, which may be helpful for improving the skill of the CMIP5 models in the future.     

Influence of positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipoles on ENSO via the Indonesian Throughflow: Results from sensitivity experiments

The role of the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program(POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events,negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling.These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.     

Recent advances in monsoon studies in China

This review provides a synopsis of the major progress that has been made in monsoon studies in China and to further bridge the gap between the Chinese and international meteorological community. It consists of seven major sections. After the introduction, the second section begins with the global monsoon systems and their seasonal variation, based on some new methods proposed in recent years. Besides, some major intraseasonal features of East Asian monsoon, including the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon are discussed. In the third section, we review the interactions between ENSO and the East Asian monsoon, focusing in particular on the results of Chinese meteorologists that indicate the influence of ENSO on the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) is obviously different from that on the tropical monsoon. Besides the tropical Pacific,other ocean basins, such as the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, are also important to the East Asian monsoon, and this topic is discussed in the fourth section. In the fifth section, we address the role of land surface processes in East Asian monsoon. For example, we describe work that has shown more snow cover in spring on the Tibetan Plateau is followed by a weakened EASM and more summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valleys. The sixth section focuses on the influence of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) on EASM, demonstrating how the signal from the SH is likely to provide new clues for the seasonal forecasting of summer rainfall in China. Finally, in the seventh section, we concentrate on the interdecadal variations of EASM. In particular, we look at a significant interdecadal variation that occurred at the end of the 1970 s, and how our understanding of this feature could affect forecasting ability.     

A brief introduction to BNU-HESM1.0 and its earth surface temperature simulations

Integrated assessment models and coupled earth system models both have their limitations in understanding the interactions between human activity and the physical earth system. In this paper,a new human–earth system model,BNUHESM1.0,constructed by combining the economic and climate damage components of the Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate Change and Economy to the BNU-ESM model,is introduced. The ability of BNU-HESM1.0 in simulating the global CO2 concentration and surface temperature is also evaluated. We find that,compared to observation,BNU-HESM1.0underestimates the global CO2 concentration and its rising trend during 1965–2005,due to the uncertainty in the economic components. However,the surface temperature simulated by BNU-HESM1.0 is much closer to observation,resulting from the overestimates of surface temperature by the original BNU-ESM model. The uncertainty of BNU-ESM falls within the range of present earth system uncertainty,so it is the economic and climate damage component of BNU-HESM1.0 that needs to be improved through further study. However,the main purpose of this paper is to introduce a new approach to investigate the complex relationship between human activity and the earth system. It is hoped that it will inspire further ideas that prove valuable in guiding human activities appropriate for a sustainable future climate.     

安徽滁州夏季一次飑线过程的雨滴谱特征

选取2014年7月31日安徽滁州一次飑线过程,使用地基雨滴谱仪资料分析此次过程的雨滴谱特征。根据雷达回波和地面降水强度将这次降水过程划分为对流降水、过渡性降水和层云降水,并以10 mm·h-1为临界值将对流降水进一步划分为对流前沿降水、对流中心降水、对流后沿降水。结果表明:对流中心降水、过渡性降水、层云降水的质量加权直径均比较稳定,平均值分别为1.8 mm, 1.0 mm, 1.7 mm。对流降水的标准化截距相比层云降水更大。对流中心降水各粒径段雨滴数浓度均较高;层云降水小雨滴浓度较低,且有少量大雨滴;过渡性降水由小雨滴组成。当雨水含量相同时,层云降水的质量加权直径相比对流降水更大。当雨强相同时,层云降水的反射率因子相比对流中心降水更大。更为精细的降水类型划分可有效改善Z-I关系。     

基于作物系数与水分生产函数的向日葵产量预测

利用河套灌区向日葵2012年田间水分、分期播种试验数据和两个站点的农业气象历史资料,研究基于向日葵作物系数和水分生产函数的产量预测方法。结果表明:向日葵标准作物系数在生育期内的变化规律是前期小、中期大、后期小, 最高值为1.21, 出现在开花期。标准作物系数与出苗后日数和大于0℃积温有很好的二次和三次多项式关系,拟合优度在0.93以上。在分析相对叶面积指数和作物系数关系的基础上,提出标准作物系数的相对叶面积指数订正方法,得出河套灌区向日葵作物系数的动态计算式,为水分生产函数中实际蒸散量的计算提供支撑。建立以Jensen模型为基础的向日葵水分生产函数,得到对水分亏缺的敏感顺序从高到低是开花期、花序形成期、成熟期、苗期。综合应用向日葵作物系数方程和水分生产函数模型计算分期播种产量,与实际产量分别相差4.4%和4.1%,初步证明该文提出的方法对产量预测较为理想,在该地区具有很好的适用性。     

方程误差系统的多新息辨识方法

多新息方法可以用于线性系统和非线性系统的自适应滤波、参数估计、自校正控制、自适应故障检测与诊断等.线性系统包括两种基本类型:方程误差类系统和输出误差类系统.本文将多新息辨识应用到方程误差滑动平均(EEMA)系统(即CARMA系统),研究多新息增广随机梯度算法和多新息增广最小二乘算法,应用到方程误差自回归滑动平均(EEARMA)系统(即CARARMA系统),提出基于分解的多新息广义增广随机梯度算法和基于分解的多新息广义增广最小二乘算法,以及基于滤波的多新息广义增广随机梯度算法和基于滤波的多新息广义增广最小二乘算法.