Exurbia from the bottom-up: Confronting empirical challenges to characterizing a complex system

We describe empirical results from a multi-disciplinary project that support modeling complex processes of land-use and land-cover change in exurban parts of Southeastern Michigan. Based on two different conceptual models, one describing the evolution of urban form as a consequence of residential preferences and the other describing land-cover changes in an exurban township as a consequence of residential preferences, local policies, and a diversity of development types, we describe a variety of empirical data collected to support the mechanisms that we encoded in computational agent-based models. We used multiple methods, including social surveys, remote sensing, and statistical analysis of spatial data, to collect data that could be used to validate the structure of our models, calibrate their specific parameters, and evaluate their output. The data were used to investigate this system in the context of several themes from complexity science, including have (a) macro-level patterns; (b) autonomous decision making entities (i.e., agents); (c) heterogeneity among those entities; (d) social and spatial interactions that operate across multiple scales and (e) nonlinear feedback mechanisms. The results point to the importance of collecting data on agents and their interactions when producing agent-based models, the general validity of our conceptual models, and some changes that we needed to make to these models following data analysis. The calibrated models have been and are being used to evaluate landscape dynamics and the effects of various policy interventions on urban land-cover patterns.     

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Tidal inundation mapping under enhanced land subsidence in Semarang,Central Java Indonesia

Tidal inundation by high tide under enhanced land subsidence is a damaging phenomenon and a major threat to the Semarang urban area in Indonesia. It impacts on economic activities, as well as the cost of an emergency program and causes interruption of pubic services, danger of infectious diseases and injury to human lives. This study examines a spatial analysis tool on the GIS-raster system for the tidal inundation mapping based on the subsidence-benchmark data and modified detail digital elevation model. Neighborhood operation and iteration model as a spatial analysis tool have been applied in order to calculate the encroachment of the tidal inundation on the coastal area. The resulting map shows that the tidal flood spreads to the lowland area and causes the inundation of coastal settlement, infrastructure, as well as productive agricultural land, i.e., the fish-pond area. The monitoring of the vulnerable area due to the tidal inundation under the scenario of extended land subsidence plays an important role in long-term coastal zone management in Semarang.     

The state of land subsidence and prediction approaches due to groundwater withdrawal in China

This article gives a general introduction to land subsidence with the prediction approaches due to withdrawal of groundwater in three subsided/subsiding regions in China: the deltaic plain of Yangtse River (YRDP), North China Plain (NCP), and Fenwei Plain (FP). On YRDP, Shanghai is the typical subsided/subsiding city; on NCP Tianjin is the typical subsided/subsiding city, and on FP Taiyuan is the typical subsided/subsiding city. The subsided area with subsidence over 200 mm on YRDP is about 10,000 km² and the maximum subsided value reached 2.9 m at Shanghai; on NCP the subsided area reached 60,000 km² with the maximum subsidence of 3.9 m at Tianjing; on FP the subsided area is relatively smaller than that on the other two plains and is about 1,135 km² with maximum subsidence of 3.7 m at Taiyuan city. In order to protect the civil and industrial facilities, it is necessary to predict the future development of land subsidence based on present state. Many researchers proposed several approaches to predict the land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal according to different geological conditions and groundwater withdrawal practice. This article classifies these approaches into five categories: (i) statistical methods; (ii) 1D numerical method; (iii) quasi-3D seepage model; (iv) 3D seepage model; (v) fully coupled 3D model. In China, the former four categories are presently employed in the prediction practice and their merits and demerits are discussed. According to the prediction practice, 3D seepage model is the best method presently.     

Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills,Central Chile

Debris and mudflows are some of the main geological hazards in the mountain foothills of the Chilean capital city of Santiago. There, the risk of flows triggered in the basins of ravines that drain the range into the city increases with time due to the city growth. A multivariate statistical study based on the logistic regression method is presented. The model provides equations that allow the computation of combined meteorological triggering factors associated with a probability of rain-induced flow occurrence. Daily rainfall, accumulated rainfall and the snowfall level, traditionally considered as the relevant factors, are analysed for a 25-year period. The results show a strong relevance of the rainfall on the day of the flow event over the other factors. However, the relatively low probabilities returned for some real flow events suggest that the model does not capture all the significant variables and the problem is more complex than as it has been traditionally assumed, and further investigations are needed to develop predictive models of flow triggering.     

Room-temperature equation of state of Li<Subscript>2</Subscript>VOSiO<Subscript>4</Subscript> up to 8.5 GPa

High-pressure single-crystal X-ray diffraction measurements of lattice parameters of the compound Li₂VOSiO₄, which crystallises with a natisite-type structure, has been carried out to a pressure of 8.54(5) GPa at room temperature. Unit-cell volume data were fitted with a second-order Birch-Murnaghan EoS (BM-EoS), simultaneously refining V ₀ and K ₀ using the data weighted by the uncertainties in V. The bulk modulus is K ₀ = 99(1) GPa, with K′ fixed to 4. Refinements of third order equations-of-state yielded values of K′ that did not differ significantly from 4. The compressibility of the unit-cell is strongly anisotropic with the c axis (K ₀(c) = 49.7 ± 0.5 GPa) approximately four times more compressible than the a axis (K ₀(a) = 195 ± 3 GPa).     

The effects of gas flaring on crops in the Niger Delta,Nigeria

Flaring of associated gas from oil exploitation has several consequences on the environment. This study explores the spatial variability effects of gas flaring on the growth and development of cassava (Manihot esculenta), waterleaf (Talinum triangulare), and pepper (Piper spp.) crops commonly cultivated in the Niger Delta, Nigeria. Data was collected on soil and atmospheric temperature and moisture at a 20-m interval, starting at 40 m from the flare point to a distance of 140 m. Lengths and widths of crop leaves, height of crop plants and cassava yields were measured at the specified distances. The amino acid, ascorbic acid, starch, and sugar constituents of the cassava yields were determined. The results suggest that a spatial gradient exists in the effects of gas flares on crop development. Retardation in crop development manifests in decreased dimensions of leaf lengths and widths of cassava and pepper crops closer to the gas flare point. Statistical analysis also confirms that cassava yields are higher at locations further away from the flare point. In addition, the amount of starch and ascorbic acid in cassava decreased when the plant is grown closer to the gas flare. High temperatures around the gas flare appear to be the most likely cause of this retardation. The waterleaf crop, on the other hand, appears to thrive better around the gas flare point.     

Stability at high-pressure,elastic behaviour and pressure-induced structural evolution of CsAlSi<Subscript>5</Subscript>O<Subscript>12</Subscript>, a potential host for nuclear waste

The elastic and structural behaviour of the synthetic zeolite CsAlSi₅O₁₂ (a = 16.753(4), b = 13.797(3) and c = 5.0235(17) Å, space group Ama2, Z = 2) were investigated up to 8.5 GPa by in situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction with a diamond anvil cell under hydrostatic conditions. No phase-transition occurs within the P-range investigated. Fitting the volume data with a third-order Birch–Murnaghan equation-of-state gives: V ₀ = 1,155(4) ų, K _T0 = 20(1) GPa and K′ = 6.5(7). The “axial moduli” were calculated with a third-order “linearized” BM-EoS, substituting the cube of the individual lattice parameter (a ³, b ³, c ³) for the volume. The refined axial-EoS parameters are: a ₀ = 16.701(44) Å, K _T0a = 14(2) GPa (β_a = 0.024(3) GPa^?1), K′ _a = 6.2(8) for the a-axis; b ₀ = 13.778(20) Å, K _T0b = 21(3) GPa (β_b = 0.016(2) GPa^?1), K′ _b = 10(2) for the b-axis; c ₀ = 5.018(7) Å, K _T0c = 33(3) GPa (β_c = 0.010(1) GPa^?1), K′ _c = 3.2(8) for the c-axis (K _T0a:K _T0b:K _T0c = 1:1.50:2.36). The HP-crystal structure evolution was studied on the basis of several structural refinements at different pressures: 0.0001 GPa (with crystal in DAC without any pressure medium), 1.58(3), 1.75(4), 1.94(6), 3.25(4), 4.69(5), 7.36(6), 8.45(5) and 0.0001 GPa (after decompression). The main deformation mechanisms at high-pressure are basically driven by tetrahedral tilting, the tetrahedra behaving as rigid-units. A change in the compressional mechanisms was observed at P ≤ 2 GPa. The P-induced structural rearrangement up to 8.5 GPa is completely reversible. The high thermo-elastic stability of CsAlSi₅O_12, the immobility of Cs at HT/HP-conditions, the preservation of crystallinity at least up to 8.5 GPa and 1,000°C in elastic regime and the extremely low leaching rate of Cs from CsAlSi₅O₁₂ allow to consider this open-framework silicate as functional material potentially usable for fixation and deposition of Cs radioisotopes.