固体潮地震预测与固体潮地球动力学研究的分析比较

固体潮研究是研究地震成因、地震前兆与地震预测的重要内容.在开展固体潮地震预测研究之前,固体潮主要用于地球动力学研究.然而固体潮地震预测研究与固体潮地球动力学研究的目标截然不同.地球动力学从大的时间尺度和地球整体运动(包括地球内部及表面的构造运动)来探讨其动力演化过程,进而寻求其驱动机制.固体潮地震预测研究则是研究小时间尺度、区域性地壳构造运动中与地震有关的固体潮异常现象.二者相差甚远.在现行地震预测体系中,固体潮研究也远不能与测震学研究的重要性相比.为什么会出现这种情况?固体潮地震预测研究有什么特点?这些问题的讨论,有助于帮助我们强化地震预测的目标和概念、改进固体潮地震监测技术系统、探索新的数字信号处理方法.     

Interference Testing for Atmospheric HOx Measurements by Laser-induced Fluorescence

Accurate OH and HO₂ (collectively called HO_x) measurements by laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) may be contaminated by spurious signals from interfering atmospheric chemicals or from the instrument itself. Interference tests must be conducted to ensure that observed OH signal originates solely from ambient OH and is not due to instrument artifacts. Several tests were performed on the Penn State LIF HO_x instrument, both in the laboratory and in the field. Theseincluded measurements of the instrument's zero signal by using either zero air or perfluoropropylene to remove OH, examination of spectral interferences from naphthalene, sulfur dioxide, and formaldehyde, and tests of interferences by addition of suspected interfering atmospheric chemicals, including ozone, hydrogen peroxide, nitrous acid, formaldehyde, nitric acid, acetone, and organic peroxy radicals (RO₂). All tests lacked evidence ofsignificant interferences for measurements in the atmosphere, including highly polluted urban environments.     

Numerical Method for Modeling the Constitutive Relationship of Sand under Different Stress Paths

Overonehundredconstitutivemodelsforsand havebeenproposed,howeveronlyafewmodelsare widelyappliedinengineering.Therearetwochief reasonsforthis.(1)Sandiscomposedofgeological materialsandsituatedinaneutralenvironmentthat hassufferedvariousactions.Therefore,itisdifficult todescribethecomplexbehaviorofsoilsbyusinga simplemathematicalmodelwithonlyafewparame ters.(2)Therealsoexistsabasicparadoxintradi tionalmodelingmethods.Oneaspectofthemodelsis neededtodescribetheconstitutiverelationofsoilac curatel…     

2005年北极冰川首期GPS监测

2005年7月至8月,中国北极黄河站第二次科学考察期间,科考队员针对黄河站附近首次队踏勘选定的两条典型冰川(AustreLov啨nbreen和Pedersenbreen),开展了以监测冰川物质平衡和冰川运动为主要内容的研究课题。本文分析了利用差分GPS进行北极冰川运动监测的可行性和优越性;初步处理了首期GPS监测的数据,并进行了精度分析,得出了较为满意的结果;针对北极冰川特殊的地理环境,探讨了在北极冰川上进行GPS测量应该注意的问题。     

土壤异养呼吸温度敏感性（Q10）的影响因子

首先对国内外土壤异养呼吸Q10的研究成果进行了全面的综合述评．影响土壤异养呼吸Q10的因子主要包括环境因子（主要是温度和湿度）、呼吸底物和土壤生物等．较多的研究表明土壤异养呼吸的Q10在低温时较高，高温时较低，但Q10也可随温度升高而增加，或随温度变化而保持稳定；通常土壤异养呼吸的Q10与土壤水分成正相关，但极端水分条件下（干旱胁迫或渍水）Q10较低；有限的研究表明呼吸底物和土壤生物对土壤异养呼吸Q10的影响还具有很大的不确定性；调控土壤异养呼吸Q10的机理目前还不清楚．然后从温度、水分、呼吸底物、土壤微生物对土壤异养呼吸Q10的影响等方面对影响土壤异养呼吸温度敏感性的原因进行了深入的探讨，并提出未来应重点开展的研究：（1）加强不同尺度土壤异养呼吸Q10的影响因子及调控机理研究；（2）扩大土壤异养呼吸Q10的野外研究；（3）扩大热带、亚热带土壤异养呼吸Q10的研究；（4）深入探讨呼吸底物有效性和土壤生物对土壤异养呼吸Q10的影响；（5）加强其他因子对土壤异养呼吸Q10影响的研究．     

Reservoir Characterization of McMurray Formation by 2D Geostatistical Modeling

There is a need to estimate reserve uncertainty for large lease areas. Detailed 3D models of heterogeneity are not necessarily required, but there is a need to integrate all available data into an in-situ reserve estimate with uncertainty. A 2D mapping approach is presented to appraise reserves accounting for multiple variables, multiple data sources, and uncertainty. The approach can be considered in three primary steps: (1) Bayesian updating is used to determine local distributions of uncertainty for each primary variable while integrating multiple secondary information, (2) matrix simulation is employed to jointly and simultaneously simulate multiple collocated variables to determine a derived variable such as OOIP, and (3) probability field simulation then is applied to permit joint simulation of multiple locations. This methodology permits local and global uncertainty assessment while integrating multiple sources of information. An application to the McMurray Formation in Alberta, Canada is demonstrated.     

Comparison between earthquake magnitudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph network （Ⅱ）： Surface wave magnitude

By using orthogonal regression method, a systematic comparison is made between surface wave magnitudes determined by Institute of Geophysics of China Earthquake Administration （IGCEA） and National Earthquake Information Center of US Geological Survey （USGS/NEIC） on the basis of observation data collected by the two institutions between 1983 and 2004. A formula is obtained which reveals the relationship between surface wave magnitudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph network. The result shows that, as different calculation formulae and observational instruments are used, surface wave magnitude determined by IGCEA is generally greater by 0.2 than that determined by NEIC： for M=3.5-4.5 earthquakes, it is greater by 0.3; for M=5.0-6.5 earthquakes, it is greater by 0.2; and for M≥7.0 earthquakes, it is greater by no more than 0.1.     

Petrogenesis and tectonic setting of the peralkaline Pine Canyon caldera, Trans-Pecos Texas, USA

The Pine Canyon caldera is a small (6–7 km diameter) ash-flow caldera that erupted peralkaline quartz trachyte, rhyolite, and high-silica rhyolite lavas and ash-flow tuffs about 33–32 Ma. The Pine Canyon caldera is located in Big Bend National Park, Texas, USA, in the southern part of the Trans-Pecos Magmatic Province (TPMP). The eruptive products of the Pine Canyon caldera are assigned to the South Rim Formation, which represents the silicic end member of a bimodal suite (with a “Daly Gap” between 57 and 62 wt.% SiO₂); the mafic end member consists primarily of alkali basalt to mugearite lavas of the 34–30 Ma Bee Mountain Basalt. Approximately 60–70% crystallization of plagioclase, clinopyroxene, olivine, magnetite, and apatite from alkali basalt coupled with assimilation of shale wall rock (M_a/M_c = 0.3–0.4) produced the quartz trachyte magma. Variation within the quartz trachyte–rhyolite suite was the result of 70% fractional crystallization of an assemblage dominated by alkali feldspar with subordinate clinopyroxene, fayalite, ilmenite, and apatite. High-silica rhyolite is not cogenetic with the quartz trachyte–rhyolite suite, and can be best explained as the result of  5% partial melting of a mafic granulite in the deep crust under the fluxing influence of fluorine. Variation within the high-silica rhyolite is most likely due to fractional crystallization of alkali feldspar, quartz, magnetite, biotite, and monazite. Lavas and tuffs of the South Rim Formation form A-type rhyolite suites, and are broadly similar to rock series described in anorogenic settings both in terms of petrology and petrogenesis. The Pine Canyon caldera is interpreted to have developed in a post-orogenic tectonic setting, or an early stage of continental rifting, and represents the earliest evidence for continental extension in the TPMP.     

A modified Richards equation, its adjoint, and a new perspective on land data assimilation

Summary Richards equation, which is the key relationship for addressing basic soil hydrological processes within the rhizosphere and constitutes the basis for multiple-layer soil hydrology models for meteorological studies, is modified to include two vegetation processes: the transpiration (daytime) and hydraulic lift (nighttime). The analytical form of the adjoint system is derived and can serve as the guideline for discrete forms, as implemented in a variety of multiple layer land surface models. The modified equation and its adjoint model may be used to address at least two types of inverse problems: estimation of the initial soil moisture contents from sparse observations of related quantities; and retrieval of critical soil/vegetation parameters with observations of soil moisture contents (or other related quantities) distributed over a certain period of time. The former may be of more interest for numerical weather prediction studies, whereas the latter may be more valuable for longer time integration of climate models.     

黄河的输沙量：过去、现在和将来——距今15万年以来的黄河泥沙收支表

黄河于150 ka BP切穿三门峡，东流入海。黄河泥沙90%来自黄土高原。黄土高原土地利用和植被的变化对黄河输沙有决定性的影响。15万年以来，黄河进入华北平原的泥沙约70 000×108 t，其中10 ka BP以前占80%。10 ka BP以后的输沙量中，最后1040年黄土高原滥垦时期占60%。黄河泥沙的归宿，建造华北大平原占73%，流入海洋占26%。现在，黄河每年流入北黄海的泥沙不足0.2×108  t，其输运主要受海洋环流系统的影响。现在黄海每年向东海输运悬浮沉积物0.2×108~0.3×108 t，主要为废黄河三角洲及水下三角洲受侵蚀再悬浮的黄河泥沙。1996—2000年黄河下游连年断流，利津站的年径流量和输沙量只有1950—1979年30年平均的19%左右。今后20~30年内，由于气候变暖、工业、城市等引黄水量增加，黄河的入海泥沙量仍将偏少。