用图型聚类法作气温变化趋势的概率预报

利用相似概率预报原理,通过图型聚类方法制作了河北省分冷暖季节,分辨站点的气温变化趋势的客观概率预报,１９９８年暖季开始试应用,暖季预报的布赖尔等评分结果表明,图型聚类方法是制作气温变化趋势概率的合理可行的方法。     

气候变化科学的最新认知

 政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组于2007年2月2日发布的第四次评估报告明确指出,近100 a（1906-2005年）地球表面平均温度上升了0.74℃,近50 a的线性增温速率为0.13℃/10 a,1850年以来最暖的12个年份中有11个出现在近期的1995-2006年。全球变暖已经是不争的科学事实,报告认为人类活动是近50 a全球气候系统变暖的主要原因。 IPCC评估报告是国际科学界对气候变化问题最权威、最全面的认识,代表了目前全球气候变化研究的科学认识水平,是国际上制定相关政策的重要依据。     

近50年黄河乌兰布和沙漠段辫状河道演变

依据水沙资料和断面资料,对黄河乌兰布和沙漠段辫状河道形态近50年演变特征及趋势进行探讨分析。结果表明：在大流量条件下（1966-1993年）,河流横向侵蚀、搬运堆积过程强烈,风沙入黄（河）量大,河道横向摆动频繁,辫状河道发育强烈。当黄河流量减小时（1993-2013年）,河流横向摆动能力减弱,黄河主河槽远离左岸乌兰布和沙漠沙丘,河流输沙能力减弱,汊道泥沙淤积导致心滩边滩相连,河流分汊数量明显减少,辫状河道萎缩,黄河乌兰布和沙漠段辫状河型有向弯曲型河道转变的趋势。     

Water flow velocity over frozen and nonfrozen black soil slopes

Ice‐ and snow‐melted water flow over partially thawed frozen soil of cultivated slopes causes serious soil erosion, which results in soil degradation and affects productivity in Northeast China. Water flow velocity over frozen and nonfrozen soil shows importance in understanding meltwater erosion. In this work, a series of laboratory experiments were conducted to measure water flow velocity over frozen and nonfrozen soil slopes. Experiments were performed using the electrolyte trace method under the pulse boundary model, under conditions of 4 slope gradients (5°, 10°, 15°, and 20°), 3 flow rates (1, 2, and 4 L/min), and 7 sensors positioned at 0.1, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, and 6.0 m away from the electrolyte injection point. Results showed that velocities over frozen soil slopes increased with flow rate and slope gradient. Flow velocities over nonfrozen soil slopes increased with flow rate and slope gradients from 5° to 15° and stabilized at 15°. Flow velocities over frozen soil slopes were 30%, 54%, 71%, and 91% higher than those over nonfrozen ones at slope gradients of 5°, 10°, 15°, and 20°. Flow velocities over frozen soil slopes under different flow rates of 1, 2, and 4 L/min were approximately 52%, 59%, and 79% higher than those over nonfrozen soil, respectively. This study can help in assessing the erosion of partially thawed frozen soil by meltwater flow.     

江苏典型地区河流沉积物重金属元素分布特征及其污染来源

通过对河流沉积物等地表沉积物中重金属元素分布等环境地球化学调查数据的统计分析,总结了江苏典型地区河流沉积物中重金属元素的分布特点与规律:江苏局部地区河流沉积物中,Cd、Pb、Zn、Cr、Cu、Ni、Hg等相对富集趋势明显,Cd最大富集倍数 100;不同河流沉积物的重金属元素分布存在差异,与其污染来源密切相关;工业排放是导致河流重金属污染的主要原因,使用含Cd的颜料作为调色剂导致部分河流出现严重Cd污染;与土壤等其他地表沉积物相比,河流沉积物中重金属元素的分布更不均衡。查明河流沉积物的重金属元素分布可为相关农产品安全性预测、确定重金属污染来源、追踪涉重产业的发展历程、防治局部耕地重金属污染等提供科学依据。     

恒星相机姿态计算及其在摄影测量中的应用

简要介绍基于恒星相机的卫星像片姿态计算过程,蘑点给出恒星相机姿态计算的最小二乘算法,实际处理若干恒星影像数据,恒星相机姿态计算中误差平均为:mα,mδ≤±0.8",mk≤±5".最后对卫星像片姿态数据用于卫星像片空中三角测量加密进行计算分析,相对于无姿态控制测量,精度得到显著提高.     

川西地区地壳形变特征及其对汶川8.0级地震成因的启示

四川西部地区是构造运动强烈,强地震多发区.自公元前26年有破坏性地震记载以来,共记录6～6.9级地震48次,7～7.9级地震18次.平均每10～15年1次,主要集中在活动块体的边界断裂带上.川西地区的强震受NW向、NE向和近SN向活动断裂所控制,明显地表现出变形局部化的基本构造特征.     

Methods and applications of a geomorphological GIS: a case study in the Ordos region of China

An information system designed for geomorphology has been established employing GIS tools, statistics, fuzzy mathematics, digital image processing and finite element analysis. In addition, we have reorganized and proposed a series of quantitative geomorphic analysis modules (quantitative analysis, information compound, division and assessment, dynamic simulation and prediction), and developed new technology in computer-aided geomorphic mapping.Then, by the methods mentioned above, we have made a quantitative analysis in a case study and worked out a map series which consists of about 100 maps on morphotectonics in the Ordos region in China.This work contributes to the development of geomorphology, the theory and applications of GIS, and research on regional morphotectonics, which shows that a GIS-based approach to geomorphic modelling has distinct advantages over traditional methods.