宁夏短期天气预报业务流程

介绍了以宁夏ＭＯＳ预报结果为基本指导产品、结合宁夏气象业务具体情况、通过二次开发建立在微机上的新型短期天气预报业务流程。该流程的建立,使宁夏短期天气预报人员基本摆脱了传统的纸上作业而转向新型的计算机预报平台,使宁夏短期天气预报的自动化水平上了一个新台阶。     

Comparison of debris-flow volume and activity under different formation conditions

Debris flows frequently occurred in Wenchuan earthquake region from 2008 to 2010, resulting in great damage to localities and being a prolonged threat to reconstruction. Forty three events' data including debris-flow volume, sediment volume and watershed area are analyzed and compared with other debris-flow events in Eastern Italian Alps, burned areas in USA and in Taiwan. The analysis reveals that there is a strong empirical relationship between debris-flow volume and loose materials volume in the earthquake region. In addition, the relationship between debris-flow volume and watershed area in the earthquake region has a wider variation range than that in other three regions while the debris volume also appears to be larger than that in the other three regions, which implies the volume of debris flows with strong influence of earthquakes is larger than that with no such influence and it is hard to predict the post-quake volume only by the watershed area. The comparison of the maximal debris-flow erosion modulus in the Wenchuan region and in Taiwan indicates that debris flows will be very active in a short time after strong earthquake.     

班怒带西段尕尔穷铜金矿两套侵入岩源区及其地质意义——来自Hf同位素特征的指示

尕尔穷铜金矿位于班公湖—怒江缝合带西段南缘的措勤—申扎火山岩浆弧内,为与侵入岩有关的矽卡岩型-破碎带型铜金(铁)矿床。在已有石英闪长岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb测年的基础上,进一步对其进行锆石Hf同位素研究,同时对最新勘查成果显示具有一定成矿潜力的花岗斑岩进行LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年和Hf同位素研究,确定了两套侵入岩的形成顺序;结合前人总结的岩石地球化学特征,利用Hf同位素对其岩浆源区进行示踪。结果显示:花岗斑岩锆石206Pb/238U年龄加权平均值为(83.2±0.7)Ma,较石英闪长岩晚4 Ma左右,其初始176Hf/177Hf值为0.282 235～0.283 073,εHf(t)值为-17.2～12.5;石英闪长岩锆石初始176Hf/177Hf值为0.282 800～0.283 015,εHf(t)值为3.5～10.5。结合二者地球化学特征显示:石英闪长岩和花岗斑岩可能是同一岩浆系统不同分异阶段的产物,前者主要起源于具有幔源印记的初生地壳,而花岗斑岩具有和石英闪长岩相似的岩浆源区,但明显混入上地壳基底物质;暗示晚白垩世班怒带西段南缘内随着南羌塘—三江复合板片与冈底斯—念青唐古拉板片之间的弧-陆碰撞,先成的具有幔源印记的初生地壳重熔形成岩浆,随着碰撞的继续和岩浆的上涌分异,部分上地壳受挤压或热效应进一步重熔并参与岩浆系统中,由早至晚形成了由幔源特征向幔-壳混合源特征源区逐渐转变的花岗岩演化系列。尕尔穷铜金矿是起源于具有幔源印记的初生地壳的花岗岩的成矿专属性表现。     

Site effect on vulnerability of high-rise shear wall buildings under near and far field earthquakes

Worldwide experience repeatedly shows that damages in structures caused by earthquakes are highly dependent on site condition and epicentral distance. In this paper, a 21-storey shear wall-structure built in the 1960s in Hong Kong is selected as an example to investigate these two effects. Under various design earthquake intensities and for various site conditions, the fragility curves or damage probability matrix of such building is quantified in terms of the ductility factor, which is estimated from the ratio of storey yield shear to the inter-storey seismic shear. For high-rise buildings, a higher probability of damage is obtained for a softer site condition, and damage is more severe for far field earthquakes than for near field earthquakes. For earthquake intensity of VIII, the probability of complete collapse (P) increases from 1 to 24% for near field earthquakes and from 1 to 41% for far field earthquakes if the building is moved form a rock site to a site consisting a 80 m thick soft clay. For intensity IX, P increases from 6 to 69% for near field earthquake and from 14 to 79% for far field earthquake if the building is again moved form rock site to soft soil site. Therefore, site effect is very important and not to be neglected. Similar site and epicentral effects should also be expected for other types of high-rise structures.     

环莫干山民宿的时空分布特征与成因

民宿是中国乡村振兴和旅游转型升级过程中涌现出的新兴业态和空间利用方式,但学术关注滞后。环莫干山地区是目前中国最典型的民宿发展集聚区之一。本研究通过官方统计资料和实地调研获取环莫干山民宿空间发展数据,构建了ArcGIS和地理探测器结合的民宿空间过程分析方法,基于目的地的微观尺度系统地探讨环莫干山民宿时空分布特征和成因。研究发现：① 2011—2017年环莫干山民宿呈现出逐年增长的态势,空间分布范围不断扩大,空间发展方向出现较大变化,逐渐趋向镇域均衡性发展。目前已经在莫干山风景区毗邻村域形成以“后坞-仙潭-燎原-劳岭-兰树坑”为中心的环莫干山面状核心集聚区和边缘村域多点集聚的民宿空间发展结构。不同档次民宿的时空发展趋势具有一定差异。② 环莫干山民宿的空间过程由集聚到强烈集聚,不同档次民宿的集聚程度均呈现出快速提升的趋势。空间发展过程中早期民宿集聚点扩散效应显著。空间集聚过程与地形地势、核心风景区、交通干线和居民点密切相关。③ 风景景观、发展基础、社会因素和区位因素是环莫干山民宿景观格局异质性的重要决定因素维度,但不同等级民宿的空间决定因素维度和指标差异性显著,两因素维度交互作用对于民宿的空间影响力更为显著。研究对于丰富接待业空间选址的类型研究,总结中国典型民宿集聚区空间发展模式具有重要理论意义,同时对于民宿产业选址和民宿集聚区规划实践具有一定现实意义。     

河南省西峡—内乡北部元古界与古生界间的构造边界

构造制图和详细的构造解析,在东秦岭造山带核部识别出一个原先未曾注意的元古代变质岩区与古生代变质岩区间的构造边界——军马河-马蹄湾断裂带。实际上,这个构造边界是一个底部韧性变形带,带内发育构造混杂岩、糜棱岩和强直片麻岩。本文阐述了各种几何学特征,它们表明变形是发生在一个缓倾斜的剪切带之上。大量的运动学标志指出,在中生代花岗岩类岩体就位前,再造的元古代变质岩区沿着构造边界向北逆冲于古生代变质岩区之上。     

长江流域河水和悬浮物的锂同位素地球化学研究

深入理解流域侵蚀过程中的锂同位素分馏对于运用锂同位素来示踪化学循环和气候变化是十分必要的。研究集中在长江干流和主要支流的水体和悬浮物的锂及锂同位素组成。长江流域水体的锂及锂同位素组成（δ⁷Li）分别为150~4 570 nmol/L和+7.6‰~+28.1‰,两者沿上游至下游的变化趋势相反。悬浮物锂同位素组成（δ⁷Li）变化比较稳定,分别为41~92 μg/g和-4.7‰~+0.7‰,而且总是低于相应水体的锂同位素组成。悬浮物和流体之间的锂同位素分馏系数在0.977和0.992之间,与悬浮物的量及组成存在明显相关性,反映了粘土矿物的吸附和化学风化的程度。锂含量与锂同位素组成之间良好的负相关性表明流域水体的锂来自2个端元混合：其一可能是蒸发盐岩,并伴有深部热泉水;其二可能是硅酸岩。     

台风路径预报套网格模式的试验

为了提高差分模式的分辨率,以改进台风路径预报。本文提出了原始方程模式的两种嵌套网格方案。试验表明,所提异模式嵌套网格交界域变量的衔接、协调处理是有效的;以轴对称正态分布模拟台风环流对于合风路径数值预报是适宜的。个例计算及1980年试用结果表明,套网格方案对路径预报有不同程度改进。     

黄河口近岸海域鱼卵、仔稚鱼种类组成及群落结构特征

为了解调水调沙期间黄河口及邻近海域鱼卵、仔稚鱼群落结构的动态变化,作者分别于2011年和2018年黄河调水调沙期间（6月—7月）,利用大型浮游生物网对该海域的鱼卵、仔稚鱼进行表层水平拖网调查。结果表明：2011年3个航次共采集鱼卵1 280粒,仔稚鱼5 973尾,隶属于7目11科13属;2018年3个航次共采集鱼卵4 104粒,仔稚鱼237尾,隶属于7目11科13属。优势种以斑鰶（Konosirus punctatus）、鳀（Engraulis japonicus）和赤鼻棱鳀（Thryssa kammalensis）等短生命周期、低营养层级的小型中上层鱼类为主。靠近黄河入海口处站位的鱼卵、仔稚鱼密度相对较高,鱼卵、仔稚鱼分布范围向黄河入海口门处集中。鱼卵、仔稚鱼的多样性指数在调水调沙过程中出现波动,过后又恢复至调水调沙前水平。环境因子Pearson相关性分析表明,鱼卵数量与环境因子间无显著相关性（P0.05）,仔稚鱼数量与叶绿素a的含量呈极显著正相关（R=0.870,P<0.01）。两个年度调查结果对比发现,总体来说调查期间黄河口及邻近海域鱼卵、仔稚鱼种类数变化不大,在适温类型组成上均以暖温种为主;2018年鱼卵、仔稚鱼采集数量均小于2011年,但是鱼卵、仔稚鱼的均匀度指数（J’）和多样性指数（H’）均大于2011年,除6月上旬航次外,其他两个航次丰富度指数（D）也均大于2011年。本研究补充了黄河口及邻近海域鱼类早期补充资源的基础数据,旨为黄河口邻近海域及渤海的渔业资源评估和养护提供依据。     

A new method of testing pile using dynamic P-S-curve made by amplitude of wave train

A new method of detecting the vertical bearing capacity for single-pile with high strain is discussed in this paper. A heavy hammer or a small type of rocket is used to strike the pile top and the detectors are used to record vibration graphs. An expression of higher degree of strain (deformation force) is introduced. It is testified theoretically that the displacement, velocity and acceleration cannot be obtained by simple integral acceleration and differential velocity when long displacement and high strain exist, namely when the pile phase generates a whole slip relative to the soil body. That is to say that there are non-linear relations between them. It is educed accordingly that the force P and displacement S are calculated from the amplitude of wave train and (dynamic) P-S curve is drew so as to determine the yield points. Further, a method of determining the vertical bearing capacity for single-pile is discussed. A static load test is utilized to check the result of dynamic test and determine the correlative constants of dynamic-static P(Q)-S curve. Foundation item: Key projects of the tenth Five-year Plan of Yunnan Province (documented Yunnan district [2002]54-02-02) and Geophysical Society of Yunnan Province.