Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China

Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km²) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated.     

Piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events on the Loess Plateau,China

Establishing a universal watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield prediction model represents a frontier field in erosion and soil/water conservation. The research presented here was conducted on the Chabagou watershed, which is located in the first sub‐region of the hill‐gully area of the Loess Plateau, China. A back‐propagation artificial neural model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield was established, with the accuracy of the model, then compared with that of multiple linear regression. The sensitivity degree of various factors to erosion and sediment yield was quantitatively analysed using the default factor test. On the basis of the sensitive factors and the fractal information dimension, the piecewise prediction model for erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events was established and further verified. The results revealed the back‐propagation artificial neural network model to perform better than the multiple linear regression model in terms of predicting the erosion modulus, with the former able to effectively characterize dynamic changes in sediment yield under comprehensive factor conditions. The sensitivity of runoff erosion power and runoff depth to the erosion and sediment yield associated with individual rainfall events was found to be related to the complexity of surface topography. The characteristics of such a hydrological response are thus closely related to topography. When the fractal information dimension is greater than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff erosion power is higher than that of using runoff depth. In contrast, when the fractal information dimension is smaller than the topographic threshold, the accuracy of prediction using runoff depth is higher than that of using runoff erosion power. The developed piecewise prediction model for watershed‐scale erosion and sediment yield of individual rainfall events, which introduces runoff erosion power and runoff depth using the fractal information dimension as a boundary, can be considered feasible and reliable and has a high prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A two‐dimensional coupled hydromechanical discontinuum model for simulating rock hydraulic fracturing

Within the framework of our discontinuous deformation analysis for rock failure algorithm, this paper presents a two‐dimensional coupled hydromechanical discontinuum model for simulating the rock hydraulic fracturing process. In the proposed approach, based on the generated joint network, the calculation of fluid mechanics is performed first to obtain the seepage pressure near the tips of existing cracks, and then the fluid pressure is treated as linearly distributed loads on corresponding block boundaries. The contribution of the hydraulic pressure to the initiation/propagation of the cracks is considered by adding the components of these blocks into the force matrix of the global equilibrium equation. Finally, failure criteria are applied at the crack tips to determine the occurrence of cracking events. Several verification examples are simulated, and the results show that this newly proposed numerical model can simulate the hydraulic fracturing process correctly and effectively. Although the numerical and experimental verifications focus on one unique preexisting crack, because of the capability of discontinuous deformation analysis in simulating block‐like structures, the proposed approach is capable of modeling rock hydraulic fracturing processes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precipitation variability assessment of northeast China: Songhua River basin

Variability in precipitation is critical for the management of water resources. In this study, the research entropy base concept was applied to investigate spatial and temporal variability of the precipitation during 1964–2013 in the Songhua River basin of Heilongjiang Province in China. Sample entropy was applied on precipitation data on a monthly, seasonally, annually, decade scale and the number of rainy days for each selected station. Intensity entropy and apportionment entropy were used to calculate the variability over individual year and decade, respectively. Subsequently, Spearman’s Rho and Mann–Kendall tests were applied to observe for trends in the precipitation time series. The statistics of sample disorder index showed that the precipitation during February (mean 1.09, max. 1.26 and min. 0.80), April (mean 1.12, max. 1.29 and min. 0.99) and July (mean 1.10, max. 1.20 and min. 0.98) contributed significantly higher than those of other months. Overall, the contribution of the winter season was considerably high with a standard deviation of 0.10. The precipitation variability on decade basis was observed to increase from decade 1964–1973 and 1994–2003 with a mean value of decadal apportionment disorder index 0.023 and 0.053, respectively. In addition, the Mann–Kendall test value (1.90) showed a significant positive trend only at the Shangzhi station.     

塔里木盆地西部阿克莫木气藏地层压力特征

阿克莫木气田目前已有多口井完钻,各井在钻揭白垩系砂岩储层前,对地层压力纵向上的变化规律认识不清,在什么层位及深度下7″套管意见仍不统一。本文根据目前研究现状和生产面临问题,对白垩系各组地层分布规律、压力特征进行了详细研究,认为白垩系克孜勒苏群、库克拜组分布稳定,压力窗口相近,白垩系东巴组与上覆古近系阿尔塔什组压力窗口相近。建议今后该区钻探7″套管应下至库克拜组顶部-东巴组底部,减少地层漏失和油气勘探风险。     

A modeling study of effective radiative forcing and climate response due to tropospheric ozone

This study simulates the effective radiative forcing(ERF) of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol–climate coupled model, BCC AGCM2.0.1 CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI(Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric column ozone(TCO) was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere;and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m~(-2), thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36℃, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d~(-1)(the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%). The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4?C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator,with an increase of 0.5 mm d~(-1)near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about-0.6 mm d~(-1)near the middle of the Indian Ocean.     

淮河流域夏季降水异常与若干气候因子的关系

基于旋转经验正交函数分解 (REOF) 方法探讨淮河流域1961—2010年夏季降水与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动 (ENSO)、北大西洋涛动 (NAO)、印度洋偶极子 (IOD)、太平洋年代际振荡 (PDO) 之间的关系,并进一步分析各气候因子不同位相单独以及联合对淮河流域夏季降水的影响。结果表明:淮河流域夏季降水与ENSO,PDO,NAO,IOD等气候因子具有较稳定的相关性,其中,PDO和IOD是影响淮河流域夏季降水的关键因子,且PDO与夏季降水呈显著负相关关系;各气候因子的冷暖位相单独及联合对淮河流域夏季降水的影响不同,PDO的冷期以及NAO,IOD冷位相使流域北部的夏季降水量呈显著增加趋势,PDO分别联合ENSO,NAO和IOD的冷、暖位相对流域北部地区和淮河上游地区的夏季降水影响显著。     

干侵入对我国东部一次强飑线过程的作用分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、雷达资料、FY2E卫星资料等,对2014年7月30日至31日发生在我国东部的一次强飑线天气过程进行综合分析,并着重分析了干侵入对此次飑线过程的作用。结果表明：中层阶梯槽引导高层干冷空气向下入侵后叠加在低层暖湿气流之上,增强了大气不稳定,不稳定能量累积;低空切变线促使不稳定能量释放,是此次飑线的重要触发机制。对干侵入的分析结果表明：此次飑线过程中,干侵入来源于高空槽后下沉气流,干侵入底部风场调整使得飑线在移动过程中发生了转向。在飑线发展过程中,干侵入范围扩大、强度增强;干侵入使飑线发生区域上空空气变冷、变干,增强了大气不稳定。干侵入底部的低相当位温空气与飑线内部高相当位温空气混合是飑线长时间维持的重要原因。