全球变化的区域适应研究：挑战与研究对策

全球变化的适应研究不仅将成为今后一个时期内科学研究的重点,而且会成为国际社会关注的焦点。全球变化的适应可理解为人类社会面对预期或实际发生的全球变化的系统功能、过程或结构所产生的影响而采取的一种有目的的响应行为,其核心是趋利避害。对全球变化的适应是人类应对全球变化策略的明智选择,中国经济的快速发展面临全球变化影响的挑战,建议积极开展全球变化的适应研究。     

饱和砂土液化研究现状及展望

通过多年的研究,人们对饱和砂土液化有了很深的认识。在Seed简化法,剪切波速法和标准贯入试验等判别的方法的研究方面也取得了很多的成果。本文主要介绍了我国广泛应用的标准贯入试验的方法,以及应用数值方法如何更好的判断场地的抗液化性。提出应用室内的微型贯入试验来判断饱和砂土液化的展望。     

中国北方地区(33°～41°N,108°～115°E)过去500年夏季降水量的周期成分分析

利用连续小波分析和经验模态分解方法,对我国北方地区(33°～41°N,108°～115°E)1470 ～2002年每年夏季降水量指数的时间序列进行了周期成分分析,探索全球气候变暖下的该地区降水量的多尺度变化特征.小波分析表明,降水量指数的可能周期有2.57a,4.83a,10.65a,23.25a,48.56a,68.30a和105.90a的周期,在95％置信水平有统计意义的周期是2.57a和23.25a的周期.这些周期和自然因素导致的周期相联系,不仅包含了气候系统内部(平流层准2a振荡和厄尔尼诺/南方涛动)的非线性作用,还包含了气候系统外(主要是太阳活动)受强迫的周期变化,且二者在原始降水量中所在比重相当,共同反映了原始降水量的绝大部分变化.降水量不只是在百年尺度上受太阳活动的驱动,在数十年尺度上也受到太阳活动的影响.我国北方地区的夏季降水量指数和夏季温度指数同相位反相关,全球增温并没有明显地改变二者之间的反相关关系.近百年来全球变暖期间,夏季降水量出现明显的新特征:短周期成分(小于30a的周期)的振幅比以往要显著大,而长周期成分的振幅比以往要显著小,同时呈现降水量逐年减少的长期变化趋势.     

Simulation Study of the Climate Change Impact on the Rice and its Adaptability in Ningxia Province

Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia, as the top rice production area of high quality and quantity, has a long history in rice planting. The studies of the effective measures for the rice production replying the climate change were very important for reducing the harm of the future climate change and crop supply safety in Ningxia Province. Based on the coupling of the PRECIS model and the crop model CERES Rice, the effects of climate change on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province were simulated and evaluated, and the adaptability measures of rice production were studied. The results showed that the CERES Rice model had the preferable simulation capability, and the modified PRECIS model also could preferably simulate the required climate parameter. The crop model simulation results showed that the climate change had some influence on the rice production and growth stage in Yinhuang Irrigation District. The rice production goes down under future climate change scenarios in Ningxia Province. The trend of reduction of 2050s is more apparent than that of 2020s under the same scenarios,but the spatial change trend is similar. The extent and range of reduction of A2 scenario are wider than that of B2 scenario in the same period, but spatial change trend is different. For the change of growth stage, there has no obvious change in the north and the central part of the Yinhuang Irrigation District. The duration in 2050s shortens more obviously than that of 2020s under the same scenario, and the duration under B2 scenario shortens more obviously than that under A2 scenario in the same period. The results of adjusting the sowing date and the rice variety parameter G4 showed that the negative impact of climate change on the rice production can be reduced by sowing date advance in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province. There has obvious difference for the optimal G4 values of different region in Yinhuang Irrigation District, and the rice production can also be effectively upraised by adjusting the rice variety characteristic and cultivating the heat resistant rice varieties. The optimal G4 values can mitigate the damage of climate change on the rice production in Yinhuang Irrigation District in Ningxia Province.     

Spatio-temporal changes of marine macrobenthic community in sub-tropical waters upon recovery from eutrophication. I. Sediment quality and community structure

A two-year study was conducted in the vicinity of a harbour in sub-tropical Hong Kong, to examine the progress of improvement in sediment quality and recovery of macrobenthic community upon cessation of organic pollution caused by sewage discharge. Median sediment particle diameter (Mdphi) and levels of total organic carbon (TOC), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), ammonia-nitrogen (NH(3)-N) and total phosphorus (TP), as well as macrobenthic species composition and abundance were determined bi-monthly at three inside-harbour and two outside-harbour locations. At the two inside-harbour locations, significantly higher levels of TOC, TKN, NH(3)-N and TP in sediments were observed than the outside-harbour locations. However, no significant temporal change of nutrient levels was detected at all sampling locations during the two-year study, except a significant decrease in TKN and NH(3)-N levels at one outside-harbour location and a decline in NH(3)-N content at another outside-harbour location. Spatially, the highest in mean total species number, individual number, species diversity H' and lowest evenness J was found at one outside-harbour location, whereas the other four locations had relatively similar values. H' was negatively correlated with TOC, TKN, NH(3)-N and TP content in sediments while J was positively correlated with MDphi. Across the study period, the patterns of macrobenthic community were significantly different among all samplings and that the spatial difference of benthic community was best correlated with MDphi, TOC, TKN and water depth. A weak sign of recovery in macrobenthic community structure was detected at inside-harbour locations, with replacement of opportunistic by ubiquitous species over the two-year study. The slow recovery of macrobenthic community was related to sediment characteristics. Results of a larval settlement bioassay using the polychaete Capitella sp. I also demonstrated that the inside-harbour sediments were still unfavourable for colonization and larval settlement of species sensitive to pollution. The slow biodegradation of the organic pollutants and continuous presence of heavy metals in the sediment may hinder settlement and colonization of benthic animals. However, increases of H' and J were observed in a longer time scale when comparing the present data with those obtained four years ago. This suggested that a detectable recovery of benthic community in the harbour may take at least three years and a complete recovery may even take longer duration.     

Earthquake Monitoring and Study in the Jingpohu Volcano Cluster Area

Seismicity in the Jingpohu volcanic area was investigated based on the seismic data recorded by the mobile seismic network consisting of 14 stations equipped with 24-bit broad-band 3- component seismographs around Crater Forest, Results show that there appears certain seismicity in Jingpohu and its adjacent areas with a low activity level and most of the recorded earthquakes are the volcanic-tectonic ones, The results of location indicate a dominant focal depth of 10km - 30kin, most of the earthquakes are smaller than ML2,0, and are concentrated in the area of ＂ Crater Forest＂ and on the Dunhua-Mishan fault which runs through the volcanic area. At station No. 2, which has better observation conditions, two types of events, likely associated to volcanism, were recorded; their waveform characteristics are somewhat similar to that of the long-period volcanic event and the volcanic tremor, but with different feature of frequencies.     

Spectral features of geomagnetic low point displacement and its mechanism

In this paper,Changli station in Hebei Province was taken as an example,in which the minute data of geomagnetic Z component was used to analyze the spectral values of its main frequencies during normal time,geomagnetic storm time and low point displacement time interval respectively. After fitting of ten high spectral values to loga-rithmic functions,it is found that,by using same length of data,the spectral values at geomagnetic storm time in-crease apparently compared with those at normal time,especially at the high frequency segment. While low point displacement occurred,the spectral values at high frequency are approximate to those at normal time,but at period above 4 hours they are mostly lower than those at normal time. Comparison of accumulating of some FFT results at low point displacement and normal time shows that,spectral values at periods of 8.5 and 13.7 hours increase at low point displacement time relative to those at normal time. Compared with the images of Ne observed at DE-METER satellite,it is illustrated that the occurrence of geomagnetic low point displacement is well corresponding with the increase of Ne in ionosphere. Finally it was discussed about those spectral features and the occurrence mechanism of geomagnetic low point displacement.     

汶川Ms8．0地震的短临地电波动（潮汐力谐振和共振波-HRT波）前兆

简要介绍了强震短临前兆的HRT波模型,和用HRT波模型分析强震前地电观测资料预测未来强震的时间、地点、震级三要素方法。用HRT波模型分析了2008年汶川MS8.0地震前四川红格地电台的记录资料,提取出了汶川MS8.0地震前短临前兆信息。     

桩顶加筋灰土垫层理论分析与工程设计探讨

目前,加筋垫层的工程实践超前于其理论研究,桩顶加筋灰土垫层设计方法受到普遍关注。以郑－西客运专线深厚湿陷性黄土地基处理为工程背景,建立了桩顶加筋灰土垫层理论模型,分析了桩顶垫层荷载特征,提出了灰土垫层设计极限状态理论。考虑不同桩径、不同桩间距、不同路基高度和不同格栅强度情况,对灰土垫层厚度等进行了参数影响性分析。建议高速客运专线路基桩顶垫层设计中宜采用双层、双向土工格栅结构形式,并优先选用延伸率小的筋材。     

脆性岩石侧向变形特征及损伤机理研究

进行了三峡花岗岩常规三轴压缩、保持轴向应变和保持轴向应力的卸围压试验,研究了脆性岩石在不同应力路径和不同加载控制方式下的侧向变形特征,可见临界侧向应变均稳定在（?0.004 ? 0.000 5）范围内。进一步进行三峡花岗岩的全过程应力-应变曲线和损伤力学分析,发现脆性岩石在不同应力路径和不同加载控制方式下均以侧向损伤为主,且侧向损伤曲线的形态近似,达到临界破坏状态时损伤值稳定在0.7?0.8左右。最后以侧向损伤变量表征花岗岩脆性破坏过程,建立了基于应变空间的、可以考虑卸荷应力路径的损伤模型和应变型破坏准则。