A timescale decomposed threshold regression downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall

A timescale decomposed threshold regression(TSDTR) downscaling approach to forecasting South China early summer rainfall(SCESR) is described by using long-term observed station rainfall data and NOAA ERSST data. It makes use of two distinct regression downscaling models corresponding to the interannual and interdecadal rainfall variability of SCESR.The two models are developed based on the partial least squares(PLS) regression technique, linking SCESR to SST modes in preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal timescales. Specifically, using the datasets in the calibration period 1915–84, the variability of SCESR and SST are decomposed into interannual and interdecadal components. On the interannual timescale, a threshold PLS regression model is fitted to interannual components of SCESR and March SST patterns by taking account of the modulation of negative and positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO). On the interdecadal timescale, a standard PLS regression model is fitted to the relationship between SCESR and preceding November SST patterns. The total rainfall prediction is obtained by the sum of the outputs from both the interannual and interdecadal models. Results show that the TSDTR downscaling approach achieves reasonable skill in predicting the observed rainfall in the validation period 1985–2006, compared to other simpler approaches. This study suggests that the TSDTR approach,considering different interannual SCESR-SST relationships under the modulation of PDO phases, as well as the interdecadal variability of SCESR associated with SST patterns, may provide a new perspective to improve climate predictions.     

胶州湾沉积物重金属形态不同浸取方法的比较与污染讯息指示作用初探

海洋沉积物中重金属的活性形态对于指示沉积物污染状况具有重要作用;为探寻简洁且能够有效提取重金属活性形态的浸提方法;实验研究了0.1 mol/L和1 mol/L盐酸的单级提取和欧共体标准局（European Community Bureau of Reference）提出的BCR分级提取法对胶州湾表层沉积物中重金属（Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb、Zn）和Al、Fe、Mn的浸取效果。结果显示;3种提取方法提取的金属含量呈显著正相关关系;两种浓度的稀盐酸对BCR方法中的酸可提取态和可还原态金属均具有较好浸提效果;但对可氧化态金属浸提能力相对较弱。不同提取方法的人为信号指数（ASI）计算结果表明;BCR浸取法提取结果的金属ASI值最大;表明其对沉积物中金属活性形态提取效率较高;1 mol/L HCl提取结果的金属ASI值最低;可能是较高浓度强酸使沉积物较大颗粒内层中“惰性”金属被浸取出来;“增加”了金属活性组分的污染讯息信号;对沉积物中Cu、Pb和Zn而言;0.1 mol/L HCl提取结果的ASI值与BCR方法接近。经过Al归一化后;0.1 mol/L HCl浸提的重金属含量的空间分布与胶州湾的实际污染状况相吻合;表明0.1 mol/L的HCl在一定程度上能够代替复杂的BCR浸取法;此方法可简化重金属活性形态的提取步骤;适合大范围沉积物重金属污染评价。     

Snow disaster characteristics in Palongzangbu River Basin and mitigation countermeasures for road engineering

The Palongzangbu River Basin contains the highest number of maritime province glaciers in China.There are 130 glacial lakes,64 snow avalanche sites and 28 glacial debris flow gullies distributed within the basin.Snow disasters play a controlling role in the Sichuan-Tibet Highway construction,due to the terrain's special characteristics of high altitude and large height differential.Segmentation mitigation countermeasures for the Sichuan-Tibet Highway are presented based on snow disaster severity level and damage mode of the road.In the Ranwu to Midui section,snow avalanches are regional disasters, so the line should be placed in sunny slopes.In the Midui Gully to Yupu section,the line should be placed in shady slopes and at higher elevations to reduce the risk of glacial lake outburst.In the Yupu to Guxiang section,all three snow disasters are minimal.In the Guxiang to Tongmai section,glacier debris flows are the major threat,thus the road should be placed in shady slopes.     

Spatio-temporal evolution of urban innovation structure based on zip code geodatabase: An empirical study from Shanghai and Beijing

In today’s world, the innovation of science and technology has become the key support for improving comprehensive national strength and changing the mode of social production and lifestyle. The country that possesses world-class scientific and technological innovation cities maximizes the attraction of global innovation factors and wins a strategic initiative in international competition. Based on the urban zip code geodatabase, an evaluation system of urban innovation with the perspective of innovation outputs, and the spatial evolutionary mode, concerning the structure of innovation space of Shanghai and Beijing from 1991 to 2014, was developed. The results of the research indicated that the zip code geodatabase provided a new perspective for studying the evolving spatial structure of urban innovation. The resulting evaluation of the spatial structure of urban innovation using the urban zip code geodatabase established by connecting random edge points, was relatively effective. The study illustrates the value of this methodology. During the study period, the spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai and Beijing demonstrated many common features: with the increase in urban space units participating in innovation year by year, the overall gap of regional innovation outputs has narrowed, and the trend towards spatial agglomeration has strengthened. The evolving spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai and Beijing demonstrated differences between the common features during the 25 years as well: in the trend towards the suburbanization of innovation resources, the spatial structure of innovation of Shanghai evolved from a single-core to a multi-core structure. A radiation effect related to traffic arteries as spatial diffusion corridors was prominent. Accordingly, a spatial correlation effect of its innovation outputs also indicated a hollowness in the city center; the spatial structure of innovation of Beijing had a single-core oriented structure all the way. Together with the tendency for innovation resources to be agglomerated in the city center, the spatial correlation effect of innovation outputs reflected the characteristics of the evolutionary feature where “rural area encircles cities”. The innovation spatial structure of Shanghai and Beijing have intrinsic consistency with the spatial structure of their respective regions (Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region), which suggested that the principle of proportional and disproportional distribution of a city-scale pattern of technological and innovational activities is closely related to its regional innovation pattern.     

Mineralization time and tectonic setting of the Zhengguang Au deposit in the Duobaoshan ore field,Heilongjiang Province,NE China

The Zhengguang deposit, a representative large gold deposit in the Duobaoshan ore field in NE China, is located in the northeast of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Ore body emplacement was structurally controlled and occurs mainly at the contact zone between the strata of Duobaoshan Formation and an Ordovician diorite stock. The diorite rocks have a close genetic relationship with Au mineralization. Re–Os isotope dating of Au-bearing pyrite yields an isochron age of 506 ± 44 Ma (MSWD = 15). Based on present and previous dating results, it can be concluded that the Zhengguang deposit formed at ~480 Ma. The mineralization time of the Zhengguang deposit is nearly identical to those of the Duobaoshan and Tongshan deposits, indicating they are all derived from the same metallogenic system. The Duobaoshan-style porphyry Cu–Mo mineralization may exist at deeper levels at Zhengguang. The geochemical characteristics of the Zhengguang dioritic rocks presented in this paper are similar to those of bajaitic high-Mg andesite, and the magmas originated from a mantle wedge metasomatized by melts from a subducting oceanic slab at an active continental margin setting. The Ordovician magmatic–metallogenic events in the Duobaoshan ore field were caused by the westward subduction of an oceanic slab located between the Xing’an and Songliao blocks. It is worth pointing out that the Zhengguang deposit is the oldest known Phanerozoic Au deposit in NE China. Further studies of this deposit will improve understanding of the regularity of ore formation and aid mineralization forecast across the Duobaoshan region.     

Discriminating characters of ore-forming intrusions in the super-large Chalukou porphyry Mo deposit,NE China

The Chalukou porphyry Mo deposit, located in the Great Hinggan Range, is the largest Mo deposit in northeast China, although the age and genesis of the associated magmatic intrusions remain debated.Here we report zircon U-Pb ages and trace elements, whole rock geochemistry and Sre Nd isotope data with a view to understand the relationship between the magmatism and molybdenum mineralization.Zircon U-Pb analysis yield an age of 475 Ma for rhyolite in the older strata, 168 Ma for the premineralization monzogranite, and 154 Ma for the syn-mineralization granite porphyry. The granite porphyry and quartz porphyry are considered as the ore-forming intrusions. These rocks are peraluminous, alkali-calcic, and belong to high-K to shoshonitic series with a strong depletion of Eu. They also display characteristics of I-type granites. The rocks exhibit wide variations of(87 Sr/86 Sr)iin the range of 0.705426 -0.707363, and ε_(Nd)(t) of -3.7 to 0.93. Zircon REE distribution patterns show characteristics between crust and the mantle, implying magma genesis through crust-mantle interaction. The Fe_2O_3/FeO values(average 1) for the whole rock and EuN/Eu*Nvalues(average 0.45), Ce~(4+)/Ce~(3+) values(average 301)for zircon grains from the granite porphyry are higher than those from other lithologies. These features suggest that the ore-forming intrusions(syn-mineralization porphyry) had higher oxygen fugacity conditions than those of the pre-mineralization and post-mineralization rocks. The Chalukou Mo deposit formed in relation to the southward subduction of the Mongol-Okhotsk Ocean. Our study suggests that the subduction-related setting, crust-mantle interaction, and the large-scale magmatic intrusion were favorable factors to generate the super-large Mo deposits in this area.