Prediction of rainfall‐induced shallow landslides in the Loess Plateau,Yan'an,China, using the TRIGRS model

In this work, a transient rainfall infiltration and grid‐based regional slope‐stability model (TRIGRS) was implemented in a case study of Yan'an City, Northwest China. In this area, widespread shallow landslides were triggered by the 12 July 2013 exceptional rainstorm event. A high‐resolution DEM, soil parameters from in‐situ and laboratory measurements, water table depths, the maximum depth of precipitation infiltration and rain‐gauge‐corrected precipitation of the event, were used as inputs in the TRIGRS model. Shallow landslides triggered on the same day were used to evaluate the modeling results. The summarized results are as follows: (i) The characteristics and distribution of thirty‐five shallow landslides triggered by the 12 July 2013 rainfall event were identified in the study area and all were classified as shallow landslides with the maximum depth, area and volume less than 3 m, 200 m² and 1000 m³, respectively, (ii) Four intermediate factor of safety (F_S) maps were generated using the TRIGRS model to represent the scenarios 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours after the storm event. The area with F_S < 1 increased with the rainfall duration. The percentage of the area with F_S < 1 was 0.2%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 5.1% for the four stages, respectively. Twenty‐four hours after the rainstorm, TRIGRS predicted that 1255 grid cells failed, which is consistent with the field data. (iii) TRIGRS generated more satisfactory results at a given precipitation threshold than SINMAP, which is ideal for landslide hazard zoning for land‐use planning at the regional scale. Comparison results showed that TRIGRS is more useful for landslide prediction for a certain precipitation threshold, also in the regional scale. (iv) Analysis of the responses of loess slope prone to slope failure after different precipitation scenarios revealed that loess slopes are particularly sensitive to extended periods of heavy precipitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Satellite-based analysis of the role of land use/land cover and vegetation density on surface temperature regime of Delhi,India

The knowledge of the surface temperature is important to a range of issues and themes in earth sciences central to urban climatology, global environmental change and human-environment interactions. The study analyses land surface temperature (LST) estimation using temporal ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) datasets (day time and night time) over National Capital Territory Delhi using the surface emissivity information at pixel level. The spatial variations of LST over different land use/land cover (LU/LC) at day time and night time were analysed and relationship between the spatial distribution of LU/LC and vegetation density with LST was developed. Minimum noise fraction (MNF) was used for LU/LC classification which gave better accuracy than classification with original bands. The satellite derived emissivity values were found to be in good agreement with literature and field measured values. It was observed that fallow land, waste land/bare soil, commercial/industrial and high dense built-up area have high surface temperature values during day time, compared to those over water bodies, agricultural cropland, and dense vegetation. During night time high surface temperature values are found over high dense built-up, water bodies, commercial/industrial and low dense built-up than over fallow land, dense vegetation and agricultural cropland. It was found that there is a strong negative correlation between surface temperature and NDVI over dense vegetation, sparse vegetation and low dense built-up area while with fraction vegetation cover, it indicates a moderate negative correlation. The results suggest that the methodology is feasible to estimate NDVI, surface emissivity and surface temperature with reasonable accuracy over heterogeneous urban area. The analysis also indicates that the relationship between the spatial distribution of LU/LC and vegetation density is closely related to the development of urban heat islands (UHI).     

Predictions of future hydrological conditions and contribution of snow and ice melt in total discharge of Shigar River Basin in Central Karakoram, Pakistan

The high mountains of Hindu-Kush Karakoram and Himalaya(HKKH) contain a large volume of snow and ice, which are the primary sources of water for the entire mountainous population of HKKH. Thus, knowledge of these available resources is very important in relation to their sustainable use. A Modified Positive Degree Day Model was used to simulate daily discharge with the contribution of snow and ice melt from the Shigar River Basin, Central Karakoram, Pakistan. The basin covers an area of 6,921 km2 with an elevation range of 2,204 to 8,611 m a.s.l.. Forty percent of the total area is glaciated among which 20% is covered by debris and remaining 80% by clean ice and permanent snow. To simulate daily discharge, the entire basin was divided into 26 altitude belts. Remotely sensed land cover types are derived by classifying Landsat images of 2009. Daily temperature and precipitation from Skardu meteorological station is used to calibrate the glacio-hydrological model as an input variable after correlating data with the Shigar station data(r=0.88). Local temperature lapse rate of 0.0075 °C/m is used. 2 °C critical temperature is used to separate rain and snow from precipitation. The model is calibrated for 1988~1991 and validated for 1992~1997. The model shows a good Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and volume difference in calibration(0.86% and 0.90%) and validation(0.78% and 6.85%). Contribution of snow and ice melt in discharge is 32.37% in calibration period and 33.01% is validation period. The model is also used to predict future hydrological regime up to 2099 by using CORDEX South Asia RCM considering RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios.Predicted future snow and ice melt contributions in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 36% and 37%, respectively. Temperature seems to be more sensitive as compared to other input variables, which is why the contribution of snow and ice in discharge varies significantly throughout the whole century.     

Initiation process of debris flows on different slopes due to surface flow and trigger-specific strategies for mitigating post-earthquake in old Beichuan County, China

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (Ms 8.0) in China, produced an estimated volume of 28 × 10⁸ m³ loosened material, which led to debris flows after the earthquake. Debris flows are the dominant mountain hazards, and serious threat to lives, properties, buildings, traffic, and post-earthquake reconstruction in the earthquake-hit areas. It is very important to understand the debris flow initiation processes and characteristics, for designing debris flow mitigation. The main objective of this article is to examine the different debris flow initiation processes in order to identify suitable mitigation strategies. Three types of debris flow initiation processes were identified (designated as Types A, B, and C) by field survey and experiments. In “A” type initiation, the debris flow forms as a result of dam failure in the process of rill erosion, slope failure, landslide dam, or dam failure. This type of debris flow occurs at the slope of 10 ± 2°, with a high bulk density, and several surges following dam failure. “B” type initiation is the result of a gradual increase in headward down cutting, bank and lateral erosion, and then large amount of loose material interfusion into water flow, which increases the bulk density, and forms the debris flow. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 15 ± 3° without surges. “C” type debris flow results from slope failures by surface flow, infiltration, loose material crack, slope failure, and fluidization. This type of debris flow occurs mainly on slopes of 21 ± 4°, and has several surges of debris flow following slope failure, and a high bulk density. To minimize the hazards from debris flows in areas affected by the Wenchuan earthquake, the erosion control measures, such as the construction of grid dams, slope failure control measures, the construction of storage sediment dams, and the drainage measures, such as construction of drainage ditches are proposed. Based on our results, it is recommend that the control measures should be chosen based on the debris flow initiation type, which affects the peak discharge, bulk density and the discharge process. The mitigation strategies discussed in this paper are based on experimental simulations of the debris flows in the Weijia, Huashiban, and Xijia gullies of old Beichuan city. The results are useful for post-disaster reconstruction and recovery, as well as for preventing similar geohazards in the future.     

Prioritization of sub-watersheds for conservation measures in a semi arid watershed using remote sensing and GIS

Land and water resources development plans are generally adopted at watershed level. Delineation of watersheds and their prioritization within large river basins requires host of terrain parameters to be studied and analysed. Chopan watershed in Central India has been studied for sub-watershed delineation and prioritization based on drainage morphometry, land use/land cover and sediment yield index analysis using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The watershed was demarcated into five sub-watersheds on the basis of drainage flow directions, contour value, slope, elevation. Geocoded satellite data of 1989 and 2001 on 1:50 000 scale were visually interpreted to prepare land use/land cover and drainage maps which were later digitized using Arcview/ArcGIS. Linear and shape aspects of the sub-watersheds were computed and used for prioritization. The results show widespread variation in drainage characteristics, land cover changes and sediment yield rates across sub-watersheds. On the basis of morphometric, land use/land cover change and sediment yield index, sub-watersheds were grouped into low, medium and high priority. A correlation of results show that SW1 and SW5 are common sub-watersheds falling under high and low priority based on morphometric, land use change analysis and SYI. The priority list of sub-watersheds will be crucial for decision making and implementation of land and water resource conservation projects.     

Spatiotemporal trends of temperature extremes in Bangladesh under changing climate using multi-statistical techniques

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The rise in the frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature phenomena across the globe has led to the recurrent incidence of global climate hazards, which...     

Stability evaluation and potential damage of a giant paleo-landslide deposit at the East Himalayan Tectonic Junction on the Southeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

A large number of paleo-landslide deposits exist in the Southeastern margin of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Once these deposits are destroyed, the disaster chain will cause huge damage to life and property and have an impact on local geomorphic evolution. Diverse models are applied to analyze different geological problems of paleo-landslide deposits, which can produce the advantages of different models fully, thereby making up for the shortcomings of poor applicability of a single model in a certain type of problem. In this study, the Baimu paleo-landslide deposit located at the North side of Dongjiuqu Bridge of Sichuan-Tibet Railway is taken as the research object to completely analyze the potential damage by combining various technical means and numerical model, aiming to provide certain reference for the design and construction of the project. Firstly, site investigation and terrain interpretation confirm the existence of local deformation and damage. Secondly, the finite element model based on the strength reduction method is used to analyze the stability of the deposit and determine the potential damage area. For the potential damage area, debris avalanche and debris flow as two disaster transformation modes are considered. The discrete element model and shallow flow model are used to simulate the dynamic process of debris avalanche and debris flow under complex terrain, respectively. The results show that potential debris avalanche or debris flow will accumulate at the mouth of the Baimu gully, and there will be no direct threat to the bridge. Finally, the formation and evolution sequence of the deposit is proposed, which plays an important role in analyzing the evolution of local river geomorphology.

     

Review: Assessment and modeling of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers of the Arabian Peninsula

Hydrogeology Journal - Significant urbanization and industrialization, combined with strong population growth, have been witnessed in the Arabian Peninsula (Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi...