Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensification on the Latitude under Vertical Shear

The sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification to the ambient rotation effect under vertical shear is investigated. The results show that the vortices develop more rapidly with intermediate planetary vorticity, which suggests an optimal latitude for the TC development in the presence of vertical shear. This is different from the previous studies in which no mean flow is considered. It is found that the ambient rotation has two main effects. On the one hand, the boundary layer imbalance is largely controlled by the Coriolis parameter. For TCs at lower latitudes, due to the weaker inertial instability, the boundary inflow is promptly established, which results in a stronger moisture convergence and thus greater diabatic heating in the inner core region. On the other hand, the Coriolis parameter modulates the vertical realignment of the vortex with a higher Coriolis parameter, favoring a quicker vertical realignment and thus a greater potential for TC development. The combination of these two effects results in an optimal latitude for TC intensification in the presence of a vertical shear investigated.     

How Does Tropical Cyclone Size Affect the Onset Timing of Secondary Eyewall Formation?

By using idealized numerical simulations, the impact of tropical cyclone size on secondary eyewall formation (SEF) is examined. Both unbalanced boundary layer and balanced processes are examined to reveal the underlying mechanism. The results show that a tropical cyclone (TC) with a larger initial size favors a quicker SEF and a larger outer eyewall. For a TC with a larger initial size, it will lead to a stronger surface entropy flux, and thus more active outer convection. Meanwhile, a greater inertial stability helps the conversion from diabatic heating to kinetic energy. Furthermore, the progressively broadening of the tangential wind field will induce significant boundary layer imbalances. This unbalanced boundary layer process results in a supergradient wind zone that acts as an important mechanism for triggering and maintaining deep convection. In short, different behaviors of balanced and unbalanced processes associated with the initial wind profile lead to different development rates of the secondary eyewall.     

黄、渤海沿海大风变化特征及影响系统

利用1981—2010年黄、渤海沿海44个气象站大风资料,根据中央气象台对近海海区的划分,分析了近30 a黄、渤海近海5海区大风的气候特征,以及通过天气分型对2008—2012年黄、渤海沿海大风的影响系统进行了统计,结果表明:近30 a黄、渤海沿海5海区日最大风速≥6级和≥8级日数呈递减趋势,1980s大风日数较多,各海区≥6级大风在1981年和1987年前后均有两个峰值。≥6级大风日数随季节变化的峰值,渤海海区出现在春季,黄海南部海区是春季、夏季8月和秋季11月,渤海海峡、黄海北部和中部海区则主要是春季和冬季。渤海海区以偏北风和南南西风为主导风向,与其他海区以北或西北风为主的特征明显不同。冷锋是黄、渤海沿海大风最主要的影响系统,其次是气旋型和高低压型大风。另外以850 h Pa温度平流的强度、冷/暖中心的强度、等温线密集带梯度、地面高/低压强度、地面大风前3 h/24 h最强变压中心强度和地面气压梯度等要素为着眼点,对不同类型的大风指标进行了分析。     

Macroseepage of methane and light alkanes at the La Brea tar pits in Los Angeles

Geologic seepage of methane and light (C₂-C₅) alkanes was measured at the La Brea Tar Pits in Los Angeles. Samples were collected using flux chambers with stainless steel canisters and analyzed using gas chromatography. Average seepage rates from individual seepage sites were 970 ± 330 mg/h of methane, 14.0 ± 5.5 mg/h of ethane, 9.1 ± 3.7 mg/h of propane, 3.7 ± 1.6 mg/h of i-butane, 0.33 ± 0.16 mg/h of n-butane, 260 ± 120 μg/h of i-pentane, and 5.3 ± 1.9 μg/h of n-pentane, while maximum seepage rates exceeded 17 g/h of methane, 270 mg/h of ethane, 190 mg/h of propane, 95 mg/h of i-butane, 10 mg/h of n-butane, 7 mg/h of i-pentane, and 0.1 mg/h of n-pentane. These absolute fluxes have an additional unknown amount of error associated with them due to sampling methodology, and should be taken as the lower limit of emissions. Samples collected revealed generally dry gas, with high methane emissions relative to the light alkanes. Overall emissions from the tar pits were found to come not only from the active geologic seepage, but also from the outgassing of the standing asphalt at the site. Using the gas ratios, which are negligibly affected by errors introduced by sampling methodology, observed in this study, daily emissions of C₂ – C₅ alkanes from the La Brea area were estimated to be 4.7 ± 1.6 Mg, which represents 2–3 % of total emissions in the entire Los Angeles region.     

Ozone structure over the equatorial Andes from balloon-borne observations and zonal connection with two tropical sea level sites

In this paper we present first-time measurements of ozone profiles from a high altitude station in Quito, Ecuador (0.19°S, 78.4°W, and 2391 masl) taken from June 2014 to September 2015. We interpret ozone observations in the troposphere, tropopause, and stratosphere through a zonal comparison with data from stations in the Atlantic and Pacific (Natal and San Cristobal from the SHADOZ network). Tropospheric ozone concentrations above the Andes are lower than ozone over San Cristobal and Natal for similar time periods. Ozone variability and pollution layers are also reduced in the troposphere above the Andes. We explain these differences in terms of reduced contributions from the boundary layer and from horizontal transport. In the tropical tropopause layer, ozone is well-mixed up to near the cold point tropopause level. In this regard, our profiles do not show constraints to deep mixing above 14 km, as has been consistently observed at other tropical stations. Total column ozone and stratospheric column ozone are comparable among the three sites. However, the contribution of tropospheric column ozone to total column ozone is significantly lower above the Andes. Our comparisons provide a connection between observations from tropical stations in equatorial South America separated by the wide continental mass. Identified differences in ozone throughout the atmospheric column demonstrate the global benefit of having an ozone sounding station at the equatorial Andes in support of global monitoring networks.     

Mapping the mean monthly precipitation of a small island using kriging with external drifts

This study focuses on the spatial distribution of mean annual and monthly precipitation in a small island (1128 km²) named Martinique, located in the Lesser Antilles. Only 35 meteorological stations are available on the territory, which has a complex topography. With a digital elevation model (DEM), 17 covariates that are likely to explain precipitation were built. Several interpolation methods, such as regression-kriging (????????, ????????, and ????????) and external drift kriging (??????) were tested using a cross-validation procedure. For the regression methods, predictors were chosen by established techniques whereas a new approach is proposed to select external drifts in a kriging which is based on a stepwise model selection by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The prediction accuracy was assessed at validation sites with three different skill scores. Results show that using methods with no predictors such as inverse distance weighting (??????) or universal kriging (????) is inappropriate in such a territory. ?????? appears to outperform regression methods for any criteria, and selecting predictors by our approach improves the prediction of mean annual precipitation compared to kriging with only elevation as drift. Finally, the predicting performance was also studied by varying the size of the training set leading to less conclusive results for ?????? and its performance. Nevertheless, the proposed method seems to be a good way to improve the mapping of climatic variables in a small island.     

Spatial and temporal variabilities of rainfall data using functional data analysis

The paper analyzes equivalent data for a low density meteorological station network (spatially discontinuous data) and poor temporal homogeneity of thunderstorm observational data. Due to that, a Regional Climate Model (RegCM) dataset was tested. The Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy index value (MUCAPE) above the 200 J kg^?1 threshold was selected as a predictor describing favorable conditions for the occurrence of thunderstorms. The quality of the dataset was examined through a comparison between model results and soundings from several aerological stations in Central Europe. Good, statistically significant (0.05 significance level) results were obtained through correlation analysis; the value of Pearson’s correlation coefficient was above 0.8 in every single case. Then, using methods associated with gridded climatology, data series for 44 weather stations were derived and an analysis of correlation between RegCM modeled data and in situ thunderstorm observations was conducted with coefficients in the range of 0.75–0.90. The possibility of employing the dataset in thunderstorm climatology analysis was checked via a few examples by mapping monthly, seasonal, and annual means. Moreover, long-term variability and trend analysis along with modeled MUCAPE data were tested. As a result, the RegCM modeled MUCAPE gridded dataset was proposed as an easily available, suitable, and valuable predictor for thunderstorm climatology analysis and mapping. Finally, some limitations are discussed and recommendations for further improvements are given.     

Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in low mountain areas based on three-dimensional copulas—taking Kuandian County as an example

Rainfall in New South Wales (NSW), located in the southeast of the Australian continent, is known to be influenced by four major climate drivers: the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Many studies have shown the influences of ENSO, IPO modulation, SAM and IOD on rainfall in Australia and on southeast Australia in particular. However, only limited work has been undertaken using a multiple regression framework to examine the extent of the combined effect of these climate drivers on rainfall. This paper analysed the role of these combined climate drivers and their interaction on the rainfall in NSW using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to account for model uncertainty by considering each of the linear models across the whole model space which is equal to the set of all possible combinations of predictors to find the model posterior probabilities and their expected predictor coefficients. Using BMA for linear regression models, we are able to corroborate and confirm the results from many previous studies. In addition, the method gives the ranking order of importance and the probability of the association of each of the climate drivers and their interaction on the rainfall at a site. The ability to quantify the relative contribution of the climate drivers offers the key to understand the complex interaction of drivers on rainfall, or lack of rainfall in a region, such as the three big droughts in southeastern Australia which have been the subject of discussion and debate recently on their causes.     

Validating the dynamic downscaling ability of WRF for East Asian summer climate

This work aims, as a first step, to analyze rainfall variability in Northern Algeria, in particular extreme events, during the period from 1940 to 2010. Analysis of annual rainfall shows that stations in the northwest record a significant decrease in rainfall since the 1970s. Frequencies of rainy days for each percentile (5th, 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) and each rainfall interval class (1–5, 5–10, 10–20, 20–50, and ≥50 mm) do not show a significant change in the evolution of daily rainfall. The Tenes station is the only one to show a significant decrease in the frequency of rainy days up to the 75th percentile and for the 10–20-mm interval class. There is no significant change in the temporal evolution of extreme events in the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. The relationships between rainfall variability and general atmospheric circulation indices for interannual and extreme event variability are moderately influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Mediterranean Oscillation. Significant correlations are observed between the Southern Oscillation Index and annual rainfall in the northwestern part of the study area, which is likely linked with the decrease in rainfall in this region. Seasonal rainfall in Northern Algeria is affected by the Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation in the west. The ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) are assessed using the bias method to test their ability to reproduce rainfall variability at different time scales. The Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETHZ), and Forschungszentrum Geesthacht (GKSS) models yield the least biased results.     

Photochemical activation of chlorine by iron-oxide aerosol

The photochemical activation of chlorine by dissolved iron in artificial sea-salt aerosol droplets and by highly dispersed iron oxide (Fe₂O₃) aerosol particles (mainly hematite, specific surface ~150 m² g^?1) exposed to gaseous HCl, was investigated in humidified air in a Teflon simulation chamber. Employing the radical-clock technique, we quantified the production of gaseous atomic chlorine (Cl) from the irradiated aerosol. When the salt aerosol contained Fe₂O₃ at pH 6, no significant Cl production was observed, even if the dissolution of iron was forced by “weathering” (repeatedly freezing and thawing for five times). Adjusting the pH in the stock suspension to 2.6, 2.2, and 1.9 and equilibrating for one week resulted in a quantifiable amount of dissolved iron (0.03, 0.2, and 0.6 mmol L^?1, respectively) and in gaseous Cl production rates of ~1.6, 6, and 8?×?10²¹ atoms cm^?2 h^?1, respectively. In a further series of experiments, the pure Fe₂O₃ aerosol was exposed to various levels of gaseous hydrogen chloride (HCl). The resulting Cl production rates ranged from 8?×?10²⁰ Cl atoms cm^?2 h^?1 (at ~4 ppb HCl) to 5?×?10²² Cl atoms cm^?2 h^?1 (at ~350 ppb HCl) and confirmed the uptake and conversion of HCl to atomic Cl (at HCl to Cl conversion yields of 2–5 %, depending on the relative humidity). The Fe₂O₃ experiments indicate that iron-induced Cl formation may be important for highly soluble combustion-aerosol particles in marine environments in the presence of gaseous HCl.