基于HJ-1A/1B的2014年黄海海域浒苔灾害时空分布

自2007年以来, 黄海海域每年的5月初～8月中下旬浒苔(Ulva prolifera)会周期性地暴发与消亡,导致海洋生态环境被破坏以及经济损失。利用2014 年的HJ-1A/1B遥感影像, 利用神经网络监督分类及RULE规则影像重分类动态阈值法, 对2014年的浒苔的漂移路径、各时期影响的海域面积、分布面积以及暴发高峰期的最大面积进行了动态监测。结果表明, 2014年浒苔持续时间为101 d, 5月中旬开始在江苏省盐城市近海出现零星斑点, 分布面积为2.299 km², 影响面积为1 744.799 km²; 6月初到6月中旬浒苔广泛分布于黄海海域, 分布面积扩大至1 367.145 km², 达到当年的峰值; 从6月下旬开始, 浒苔进入衰退期, 浒苔分布面积、相对聚集密度均急剧缩小, 但影响面积的峰值出现在该时期; 8月初消亡于青岛附近海岸, 8月20日遥感影像已难以监测到浒苔的存在。2014年黄海海域浒苔经过了“出现—发展—暴发—衰退—消亡”5个发展阶段。     

基于动态极值理论和Copula函数的极端海平面高度预测建模

全球气候变化背景下,海平面上升是一个潜在的重大风险,为防范气候灾害,应对极端气象海洋事件,需客观、定量地对未来极端海平面变化进行科学预测。为此,基于Copula函数和动态极值分析理论,综合考虑平均海平面变化(包括垂直陆地运动和基准的局地变化)与潮、涌、浪等其他气候变化的增水对极端海平面高度的影响,采用DREAM方法改进Bayes推断对动态极值模型的参数空间估计问题,提出一种新的模型对未来极端海平面高度变化进行预测,旨在改进传统模型存在的不确定性问题,并运用该模型对气候变化背景下厦门地区未来35年的海平面变化情景进行了模型应用和实验模拟。     

国际上的政治地理学研究进展与启示————对《Political Geography》杂志2005-2015年载文的分析

通过对国际上的政治地理学旗舰性杂志《Political Geography》2005-2015年期间391篇成果的分析,总结出国际政治地理学研究的主要研究议题为:边境与边界,环境政治,空间与尺度,领土和主权以及安全问题,选举地理,社会和文化政治,其中空间与尺度,领土和主权以及安全问题,社会和文化政治几个方向研究成果占较大比例,而其他三个方向则相对较少.通过研究方法分析发现,国际政治地理学主要采用定性分析的方法,尤其是民族志和文本分析的方法,定量分析的使用存在一定的局限性.最后,从该杂志的研究对象和研究机构两个方面的分析归纳出:欧美主导的发达国家(尤其是英国和美国)对世界政治地理学话题的学术霸权与世界南,北差异发展具有一定的相关性.在中国综合国力日渐增强,参与国际事务能力不断提高以及作为新兴的地缘政治力量崛起的社会历史背景下,政治地理学经世致用之能亟待被展现.因此,中国政治地理学发展作为发展中国家的声音势必将越来越洪亮.     

Seismic Stability of Gravity Retaining Structures by Pseudo-Dynamic Method

An analytical expression of a gravity retaining wall's seismic stability against sliding and overturning is proposed in this article. The derivation, aiming at the cohesionless soil with inclined backfill surface and nonvertical wall back, is based on limit equilibrium analysis and the pseudo-dynamic method. The variations of the sliding and overturning stability safe factors with the horizontal seismic acceleration are investigated for different seismic amplification factors, soil friction angles, wall friction angles, vertical seismic acceleration coefficients, wall back inclination angles, and backfill surface inclination angles. The results indicate that the soil friction and horizontal seismic action significantly impact the seismic stability. The increase of vertical earthquake action changes the curvature of stability factor curves. The wall friction and back inclination strengthen the gravity retaining wall's resistance to sliding and overturning failure while the backfill surface inclination plays a negative role in the seismic stability. We also found that the seismic stability safe factors calculated by the proposed method are larger but more reasonable than those by the Mononobe-Okabe method.     

Geochemical and Petrological Studies on the Early Carboniferous Sidingheishan Mafic–Ultramafic Iintrusion in the Southern Margin of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, NW China

The Sidingheishan mafic-ultramafic intrusion is located in the eastern part of the Northern Tianshan Mountain, along the southern margin of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt in northern Xinjiang autonomous region of China. The Sidingheishan intrusion is mainly composed of wehrlite, olivine websterite, olivine gabbro, gabbro and hornblende gabbro. At least two pulses of magma were involved in the formation of the intrusion. The first pulse of magma produced an olivine-free unit and the second pulse produced an olivine-bearing unit. The magmas intruded the Devonian granites and granodiorites.An age of 351.4±5.8 Ma(Early Carboniferous) for the Sidingheishan intrusion has been determined by U-Pb SHRIMP analysis of zircon grains separated from the olivine gabbro unit. A U-Pb age of 359.2±6.4 Ma from the gabbro unit has been obtained by LA-ICP-MS. Olivine of the Sidingheishan intrusion reaches 82.52 mole% Fo and 1414 ppm Ni. On the basis of olivine-liquid equilibria, it has been calculated that the MgO and FeO included in the parental magma of a wehrlite sample were approximately10.43 wt% and 13.14 wt%, respectively. The Sidingheishan intrusive rocks are characterized by moderate enrichments in Th and Sm, slight enrichments in light REE, and depletions in Nb, Ta, Zr and Hf. The ε_(Nd)(t) values in the rock units vary from +6.70 to +9.64, and initial ~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr ratios range between 0.7035 and0.7042. Initial ~(206)Pb/~(204)Pb, ~(207)Pb/~(204)Pb and ~(208)Pb/~(204)Pb values fall in the ranges of 17.23-17.91,15.45-15.54 and 37.54-38.09 respectively. These characteristics are collectively similar to the Heishan intrusion and the Early Carboniferous subduction related volcanic rocks in the Santanghu Basin, North Tianshan and Beishan area. The low(La/Gd)_(PM) values between 0.26 and 1.77 indicate that the magma of the Sidingheishan intrusion was most likely derived from a depleted spinel-peridotite mantle.(Th/Nb)_(PM)ratios from 0.59 to 20.25 indicate contamination of the parental magma in the upper crust.Crystallization modeling methods suggest that the parental magma of the Sidingheishan intrusion was generated by flush melting of the asthenosphere and subsequently there was about 10 vol%contamination from a granitic melt. This was followed by about 5 vol% assimilation of upper crustal rocks. Thus, the high-Mg basaltic parental magma of Sidingheishan intrusion is interpreted to have formed from partial melting of the asthenosphere during the break-off of a subducted slab.     

Petrological and Os Isotopic Characteristics of Zedong Peridotites in the Eastern Yarlung–Zangbo Suture in Tibet

The Zedong ophiolites in the eastern Yarlung–Zangbo suture zone of Tibet represent a mantle slice of more than 45 km~2. This massif consists mainly of mantle peridotites, with lesser gabbros, diabases and volcanic rocks. The mantle peridotites are mostly harzburgite, lherzolite; a few dike-like bodies of dunite are also present. Mineral structures show that the peridotites experienced plastic deformation and partial melting. Olivine(Fo89.7–91.2), orthopyroxene(En_(88–92)), clinopyroxene(En_(45–49) Wo_(47–51) Fs_(2–4)) and spinel [Mg~#=100×Mg/(Mg+Fe)]=49.1–70.7; Cr~#=(100×Cr/(Cr+Al)=18.8–76.5] are the major minerals. The degree of partial melting of mantle peridotites is 10%–40%, indicating that the Zedong mantle peridotites may experience a multi–stage process. The peridotites are characterized by depleted major element compositions and low REE content(0.08–0.62 ppm). Their "spoon–shaped" primitive–mantle normalized REE patterns with(La/Sm)_N being 0.50–6.00 indicate that the Zedong ultramafic rocks belong to depleted residual mantle rocks. The PGE content of Zedong peridotites(18.19–50.74 ppb) is similar with primary mantle with Pd/Ir being 0.54–0.60 and Pt/Pd being 1.09–1.66. The Zedong peridotites have variable, unradiogenic Os isotopic compositions with ~(187)Os/~(188)Os=0.1228 to 0.1282. A corollary to this interpretation is that the convecting upper mantle is heterogeneous in Os isotopes. All data of the Zedong peridotites suggest that they formed originally at a mid-ocean ridge(MOR) and were later modified in supra–subduction zone(SSZ) environment.