Impact of LULC change on the runoff,base flow and evapotranspiration dynamics in eastern Indian river basins during 1985–2005 using variable infiltration capacity approach

As a catchment phenomenon, land use and land cover change (LULCC) has a great role in influencing the hydrological cycle. In this study, decadal LULC maps of 1985, 1995, 2005 and predicted-2025 of the Subarnarekha, Brahmani, Baitarani, Mahanadi and Nagavali River basins of eastern India were analyzed in the framework of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macro scale hydrologic model to estimate their relative consequences. The model simulation showed a decrease in ET with 0.0276% during 1985–1995, but a slight increase with 0.0097% during 1995–2005. Conversely, runoff and base flow showed an overall increasing trend with 0.0319 and 0.0041% respectively during 1985–1995. In response to the predicted LULC in 2025, the VIC model simulation estimated reduction of ET with 0.0851% with an increase of runoff by 0.051%. Among the vegetation parameters, leaf area index (LAI) emerged as the most sensitive one to alter the simulated water balance. LULC alterations via deforestation, urbanization, cropland expansions led to reduced canopy cover for interception and transpiration that in turn contributed to overall decrease in ET and increase in runoff and base flow. This study reiterates changes in the hydrology due to LULCC, thereby providing useful inputs for integrated water resources management in the principle of sustained ecology.     

Highway congestion during evacuation: examining the household’s choice of number of vehicles to evacuate

Hurricane evacuations in coastal counties have been reviewed and analyzed for the role of household preparedness and decisions before and during a disaster. However, one of the several emerging problems in the hurricane evacuation is transportation. Transportation issues have become more important in coastal evacuations as traffic problems impinge on people’s ability to get out of harm’s way and ultimately influence their decisions to evacuate. To add to the complexity, when families evacuate in multiple vehicles, it leads to additional vehicular traffic on roads and increased pressure on the transportation systems. However, little has been investigated on the characteristics that influence a household’s decision to evacuate in one or multiple vehicles. The outcome from such an analysis can help both the emergency managers and the transportation planners to targets groups that report taking more vehicles to develop policies that result in efficient evacuation. This study investigates the responses of evacuees surveyed after Hurricane Rita in the counties of Galveston, Brazoria and Harris County. The ordinary least square regression analysis revealed that access to transportation characteristics of a household such as number of registered vehicles in a household and number of eligible drivers was positively and significantly related to evacuating in more vehicles. Meanwhile, the risk of reaching destination safely was negatively related to taking more vehicles for evacuation even though both the risk index and deterrence index were positively significant. The time of decision and evacuation did not report any statistical significance.     

Tsunami Inundation Modelling for the Coast of Kerala,India

The disastrous tsunami of December 26, 2004, exposed the urgent need for implementing a tsunami warning system. One of the essential requirements of a tsunami warning system is the set up of tsunami inundation models which can predict inundation and run-up along a coastline for a given set of seismic parameters. The Tsunami Warning Centre and the State/District level Disaster Management Centres should have tsunami inundations maps for different scenarios of tsunami generation. In the event of a tsunamigenic earthquake, appropriate decisions on issue of warnings and/or evacuation of coastal population are made by referring to such maps. The nature of tsunami inundation and run-up along the Kerala coast for the 2004 Sumatra and 1945 Makran, and a hypothetical worst-case scenario are simulated using the TUNAMI N2 model and the results are presented in this paper. Further, scenarios of tsunami inundation arising out of possible rise in sea level as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) are also simulated and analysed in the paper. For the study, three representative sectors of the Kerala coast including the Neendakara-Kayamkulam coast, which was the worst hit by the 2004 tsunami, are chosen. The results show that the southern locations and certain locations of central Kerala coast are more vulnerable for Sumatra when compared to Makran 1945 tsunami. From the results of numerical modelling for future scenarios it can be concluded that sea level rise can definitely make pronounced increase in inundation in some of the stretches where the backshore elevation is comparatively low.     

Study of simultaneous presence of DD and PP electric fields during the geomagnetic storm of November 7–8, 2004 and resultant TEC variation over the Indian Region

During very intense geomagnetic storm of November 7–8, 2004 simultaneous presence of storm time disturbance dynamo and eastward and westward directed prompt penetration electric fields inferred from the ground based magnetometer data in the 75^° E sector is presented. Magnetometer observations show that, on the whole, average ΔH variation on 8 November remains below the night time level compared to its quiet day variation. A number of upward and downward excursions have been observed between 0130 UT and 0800 UT in the ΔH variation on 8 November. These excursions in ΔH have been attributed to the episodes of eastward and westward prompt penetrating electric fields. Ionospheric response in the equatorial ionization anomaly region along 75^° E has also been studied using the total electron content data recorded at five GPS stations, namely Udaipur, Bengaluru (IISC), Hyderabad (HYDE), Maldives (MALD) and Diego Garcia (DGAR). Observation of markedly suppressed EIA, in conjunction with ΔH variation which was m negative during the daytime on 8 November, indicates the presence of an external field of opposite polarity (the disturbance dynamo electric field) that either undermined, or overshadowed the daytime ambient (eastward) electric field to the extent that the equatorial plasma fountain could not become effective.     

Processes controlling the surface temperature signature of the Madden�CJulian Oscillation in the thermocline ridge of the Indian Ocean

During boreal winter, there is a prominent maximum of intraseasonal sea-surface temperature (SST) variability associated with the Madden?CJulian Oscillation (MJO) along a Thermocline Ridge located in the southwestern Indian Ocean (5°S?C10°S, 60°E?C90°E; TRIO region). There is an ongoing debate about the relative importance of air-sea heat fluxes and oceanic processes in driving this intraseasonal SST variability. Furthermore, various studies have suggested that interannual variability of the oceanic structure in the TRIO region could modulate the amplitude of the MJO-driven SST response. In this study, we use observations and ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments to quantify these two effects over the 1997?C2006 period. Observational analysis indicates that Ekman pumping does not contribute significantly (on average) to intraseasonal SST variability. It is, however, difficult to quantify the relative contribution of net heat fluxes and entrainment to SST intraseasonal variability from observations alone. We therefore use a suite of OGCM experiments to isolate the impacts of each process. During 1997?C2006, wind stress contributed on average only about 20% of the intraseasonal SST variability (averaged over the TRIO region), while heat fluxes contributed about 70%, with forcing by shortwave radiation (75%) dominating the other flux components (25%). This estimate is consistent with an independent air-sea flux product, which indicates that shortwave radiation contributes 68% of intraseasonal heat flux variability. The time scale of the heat-flux perturbation, in addition to its amplitude, is also important in controlling the intraseasonal SST signature, with longer periods favouring a larger response. There are also strong year-to-year variations in the respective role of heat fluxes and wind stress. Of the five strong cooling events identified in both observations and the model (two in 1999 and one in 2000, 2001 and 2002), intraseasonal-wind stress dominates the SST signature during 2001 and contributes significantly during 2000. Interannual variations of the subsurface thermal structure associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole or El Ni?o/La Ni?a events modulate the MJO-driven SST signature only moderately (by up to 30%), mainly by changing the temperature of water entrained into the mixed layer. The primary factor that controls year-to-year changes in the amplitude of TRIO, intraseasonal SST anomalies is hence the characteristics of intraseasonal surface flux perturbations, rather than changes in the underlying oceanic state.     

Higher harmonics electrostatic ion cyclotron parallel flow velocity shear instability with inhomogeneous DC electric field in the magnetosphere of Saturn

In present paper higher harmonic electrostatic ion-cyclotron (EIC) parallel flow velocity shear instability in presence of perpendicular inhomogeneous DC electric field with the ambient magnetic field has been studied, in different regions of the magnetosphere of Saturn. Dimensionless growth rate variation of EIC waves has been observed with respect to \(k_{ \bot } \rho _{i}\) for various plasma parameters. Effect of velocity shear scale length (\(A_{i}\)), temperature anisotropy (\(T_{ \bot } /T_{\|}\)), magnetic field (\(B\)), electric field (\(E\)), inhomogeneity (\(P/a\)), angle of propagation (\(\theta \)), ratio of electron to ion temperature (\(T_{e}/T_{i}\)) and density gradient (\(\varepsilon _{n}\rho _{i}\)) on the growth of EIC waves in the inner magnetosphere of Saturn has been studied and analyzed. The mathematical formulation for dispersion relation and growth rate has been done by using the method of characteristic solution and kinetic approach. This theoretical analysis has been done taking the data from the Cassini in the inner magnetosphere of Saturn in the extended region where ion cyclotron waves have been observed. The change in the growth of these waves due to the presence of Enceladus has been analyzed.     

River bank erosion hazard study of river Ganga,upstream of Farakka barrage using remote sensing and GIS

This study has been carried out to analyze and report the river bank erosion hazard due to morphometric change of the Ganga River (also called Ganges in English) in the upstream of Farakka Barrage up to Rajmahal. Morphometric parameters, such as, Sinuosity, Braidedness Index, and percentage of the island area to the total river reach area were measured for the year of 1955, 1977, 1990, 2001, 2003, and 2005 from LANDSAT and IRS satellite images. The analysis shows that there is a drastic increase in all of those parameters over the period of time. This study has found that bank failure is because of certain factors like soil stratification of the river bank, presence of hard rocky area (Rajmahal), high load of sediment and difficulty of dredging and construction of Farakka Barrage as an obstruction to the natural river flow. For the increasing sinuosity, the river has been engulfing the large areas of left bank every year. The victims are mostly Manikchak and Kaliachak-II blocks of Malda district, with a loss of around 1,670 ha agricultural land since 1977. Temporal shift measurements for the river reach between Farakka and Rajmahal has been done with help of 22 cross-sections in this reach. Erosion impact area has also been estimated to emphasize the devastating nature of the hazard.