Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Transformation of accommodation space of the Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation, the Songliao Basin, NE China

Analysis of accommodation space variation during deposition of the Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation in the Songliao Basin, NE China, indicates that accommodation space changed both through time and across the basin as a seesaw movement. The mid‐upper Qingshankou Formation is divided into three units. In each unit, changes of accommodation space differ in the southern and northern part of the basin. Increasing accommodation in the southern part is accompanied by a decrease in the northern part, and vice versa. Between the northern and southern basin, there was a neutral belt that is like a fulcrum, called the transformation belt here, where the accommodation did not change to any significant degree. We call this response ‘accommodation transformation’, whose characteristics are defined by tectonic subsidence analysis, palaeontological and sedimentary analyses. The accommodation increasing belt, decreasing belt, transformation belt and accommodation transformation boundary together constitute the accommodation transformation system. The recognition of accommodation transformation in the Songliao Basin provides a new insight into sequence stratigraphy and might be widely applicable.     

Analysis on Bearing Capacity of Tunnel-Type Anchorage of a Long-Span Suspension Bridge

INTRODUCTION Tunnel typeanchoragehasobviousadvantages inbearingcapacityversusinvestment(LiuandHu,1996).However,itisrarelyusedinapracticalpro jectbecauseofitsrequirementofgoodrockcondi tions.Siduhebridge(Fig.1),whichliesintheBa dongmountainsinthewestplatea…     

Geochemistry and occurrence of inorganic gas accumulations in Chinese sedimentary basins

Inorganic gases are commonly seen in eastern China and occasionally in southern China from the shallow water columns above hot and cold springs. The gases contain 68% to nearly 100% CO₂, with δ¹³C_CO2 and δ¹³C₁ values in the range of −1.18‰ to −6.00‰ and −19.48‰ to −24.94‰, respectively. All of the 34 large inorganic CO₂ and one inorganic methane accumulations discovered in China are distributed in eastern parts of the country, from both onshore and continental shelf basins. No commercial inorganic gas accumulation has been found in central and western China. This is a review of the occurrence and geochemical characteristics of inorganic gas accumulations in Chinese sedimentary basins. A detailed study of gas samples collected from four representative inorganic CO₂ pools and one possible inorganic methane pool indicates that inorganic alkane gases typically show δ¹³C₁ values greater than −10‰ versus PDB (mostly −30‰), with a positive stable carbon isotope sequence of δ¹³C₁ < δ ¹³C₂ < δ¹³C₃ < δ ¹³C₄. In contrast, the δ¹³C₁ values of biogenic alkane gases are lighter than −30‰, with a negative isotope sequence (i.e. δ¹³C₁ > δ¹³C₂ > δ ¹³C₃ > δ¹³C₄). Inorganic gases also tend to show less negative δ¹³C_CO2 values (−10‰) than biogenic gases (<−10‰).     

Characterization and Application of S-Band Polarimetric Radar and X-Band Phased Array Radar for a Tornadic Storm Event on June 16,2022

The X-band phased array radar offers faster scanning speed and higher spatial resolution compared to the S-band radar, making it capable of enhancing tornado monitoring and early warning capabilities. This study analyzed the char- acteristics and nowcasting signals of a tornado case that occurred on June 16, 2022 in the Guangzhou region. Our findings indicate that the violent contraction of rotation radius and the dramatic increase in rotation speed were important signal characteristics associated with tornado formation. The X-band phased array radar, with its high temporal and spatial resolution, provided an opportunity to capture early warning signals from polarimetric characteristics. The X-band phased array radar demonstrated noteworthy ability to identify apparent tornado vortex signature (TVS) features in a 10-minute lead time, surpassing the capabilities of the CINRAD/SA radar. Additionally, due to its higher scanning frequency, the X- band phased-array radar was capable of consistently identifying TVS with shorter intervals, enabling a more precise tracking of the tornado’s path. The application of professional radars, in this case, provides valuable insights for the monitoring of evolutions of severe local storms and even tornadoes and the issuance of early warning signals.     

葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段江豚活动规律

长江江豚是我国一级保护野生动物,也是长江生态系统的指示性物种,其种群数量恢复情况及活动规律一直备受关注。本文选择长江宜昌段江豚活动频繁的葛洲坝下游至胭脂坝江段为研究区域,于2021年6月-2022年5月采用定点目测、水上流动监测与无人机监测相结合的方法分区监测长江江豚的游泳行为,分析长江江豚的活动规律,构建了长江江豚出水头次的零膨胀泊松回归模型,识别影响长江江豚出水头次的关键因素,建立长江江豚出水头次与各因素间的相关关系。结果表明:(1)葛洲坝至胭脂坝长江干流段监测到最大江豚出水头次为19头次,长江江豚集群规模以2~3头最为常见,占比达58.1%;长江江豚主要表现出4种行为特征,各行为占比从大到小依次为:玩耍＞休息＞摄食＞抚幼。(2)长江江豚在葛洲坝下游近坝区(A区,葛洲坝至至喜长江大桥)出水头次最多,且在秋冬季节累计出水头次多于春夏季节,冬季累计出水头次最高,达252头次。(3)长江江豚出水头次与电站下泄流量呈显著负相关;浊度增大,长江江豚出水的概率减小。本文研究结果对长江江豚生态保护策略及长江十年禁渔效果评估具有重要参考价值。     

数字技术力量下的乡村重构

随着数字技术逐渐深入到乡村生产生活的各个方面,乡村社会关系及空间意义发生重构。信息化冲击下的乡村空间转变不仅体现在物质方面,其社会文化空间意义及人地关系地域系统的重构在内生逻辑上重塑乡村话语权力和主体身份。论文通过探讨数字技术与乡村发展的多维关系及其对乡村产生的多重效应,关注数字技术带来的自由与异化、数字经济引发的话语与权力流变及乡村女性主体地位和身份的重构,解释了数字技术作为非人类行动者的主体性及其建构下的乡村日常经济生活和社会关系,拟为乡村性的分析框架提供有益的补充,为数字乡村建设和乡村振兴提供新的理论借鉴。     

基于新生代活动构造背景的地震重点危险区域综合研究——以安徽为例

基于地震的发生与断裂的活动性密切相关,为了科学合理并尽可能准确地判定未来地震重点危险区域,以安徽为例,利用由深浅部对比、宏微观构造解析所给出的新生代构造活动性最新研究成果,结合地震活动性资料研究结果,对一些重点部位的地震危险性进行了综合研究。结果表明,根据长时间尺度的地质构造最新研究揭示的活动性较强区域,与根据近代地震活动性资料研究反映的危险性较大区域,呈现较好的一致性特征,从而为未来地震重点危险区域的判定提供了新的较为可靠的依据和方法。     

Delphi实现的集约化市县预报服务平台

以琼海市预报服务平台为例,阐述delphi语言在气象业务中的具体应用.     

CONCEPTION OF ESTABLISHING THE SINO RUSSIAN BORDER FREE ECONOMIC REGION

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