A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.     

Explicit formula for the geoid-quasigeoid separation

The explicit formula for the geoid-to-quasigeoid correction is derived in this paper. On comparing the geoidal height and height anomaly, this correction is found to be a function of the mean value of gravity disturbance along the plumbline within the topography. To evaluate the mean gravity disturbance, the gravity field of the Earth is decomposed into components generated by masses within the geoid, topography and atmosphere. Newton’s integration is then used for the computation of topography-and atmosphere-generated components of the mean gravity, while the combined solution for the downward continuation of gravity anomalies and Stokes’ boundary-value problem is utilized in computing the component of mean gravity disturbance generated by mass irregularities within the geoid. On application of this explicit formulism a theoretical accuracy of a few millimetres can be achieved in evaluation of the geoid-to-quasigeoid correction. However, the real accuracy could be lower due to deficiencies within the numerical methods and to errors within the input data (digital terrain and density models and gravity observations).     

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.     

Relation between the extreme angular and areal distortion in cartographic representation

Summary The paper presents the method of deriving representations, optimal from the point of view of global characteristics, for areal and extreme angular distortion (3), (7), if one is optional and the other characteristic is minimized at the same time. If a special minimization method (Section 5) is used for computer processing, the problem can be solved in the region of representation equations in the form of polynomials of the 3rd or 5th degree, while assuming symmetry relative to the equator and the central meridian. Thus, the method enables both the fundamental global characteristics to be regulated freely. Their dependence is illustrated in graphs (Figs 2 and 6) depending on the selected examples of representations of the whole globe. The latter shows that method is a contribution for cartographic practice as well.     

Magnitude scale structure from filtered broadbandP-wave records

A series of Hokkaido events, recorded by the FBV Broadband Seismograph System at the KHC Seismic Station, is used to study the structure of the earthquake magnitude scale on the basis of maximum velocity amplitudesA _vmax of teleseismicPwaves in different period bands. Amplitude-periodband (APB) diagrams are constructed for each event. According to the shape of the APB diagrams the events investigated can be divided into three types: (a) events with largestA _vmax values in the intermediate period range (periods ofA _vmax from 2.2 to 23 sec), (b) events with largestA _vmax values in the short-period range (periods ofA _vmax from 1 to 2 sec), (c) events exhibiting anomalous APB diagrams. Type (a) events seem to represent the process of wave generation that prevails for shallow earthquakes. Type (b) events approach to explosive-like generation of seismic waves. The nature of the exceptionally occurring type (c) events must be clarified in further investigations. The influence of the type of earthquake on the magnitude values estimated on the basis of standard class A and B (short-period and intermediate-band) seismograms is demonstrated. It appears that for estimating correct values of earthquake magnitudes complementary information on the process of seismic wave generation in the focus is necessary. At teleseismic distances this information can be obtained from either APB diagrams or amplitude spectra ofP waves recorded, e.g., by broadband velocity sensing instruments.     

Geodynamic interpretation of the earthquake distribution in the kermadec subduction zone

Summary The morphology of the Wadati-Benioff zone in the Kermadec region, based on the distribution of 1100 earthquake foci, verified the existence of an intermediate aseismic gap and its relation to active andesitic volcanism, and the non-uniformity of subduction due to the hampering effect of the main structural features of the subducting Pacific plate. Two cycles of the recently active subduction in the Tonga-Kermadec island arc were found.     

Crustal thermal models for South Siberia

Summary The results of geothermal research carried out in South Siberia (West-Siberian and Siberian Platforms, Altai-Sayan folded area and the Baikalian arched uplift zone) were employed to calculate the Earth's crustal temperatures. It is shown that temperature is a function of the heat flow value. The maps of the surface heat flow and the temperatures at the Moho discontinuity are presented and characteristic temperature-depth profiles were compiled for specific tectonic areas. The West-Siberian and Siberian Platforms, as well as the Altai-Sayan folded region are characterized by rather low heat flow, 42–50mW m ^–2 (1.0–1.2 µcal/cm ² s), and low temperatures at the Moho boundary.400–500 °C. The thermal conditions in the area of Lake Baikal are extreme, the heat flow reaches here100–142 mW m ^–2 (2.4–3.4 µcal/cm ² s), and the temperature at the crust's bottom may exceed1000 °C. The Moho-surface according to our calculations is nonisothermal.     

Electrical conductivity of rocks in the heating and cooling cycle

Summary The values of the electrical conductivity, recorded during the heating and cooling cycle, of eclogites and basalts are compared. The observed difference in the values is explained by reversible and irreversible changes which take place in the samples.     

Isoseismals of the strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976

Summary Isoseismal maps of the three strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976 were compiled using the contributions from European countries within the shaken area. The characteristic features of the macroseismic fields are discussed.