降雨入渗诱发黄土滑塌的模式及临界值初探

国内外对诱发滑坡的降雨阈值的研究多采用统计方法对历史滑坡和降雨量数据进行相关分析,而在分析过程中很少按降雨入渗诱发模式的不同进行分类.实际上,降雨临界值与被触发的滑坡类型紧密相关,不同模式的降雨可以触发不同类型和规模的滑坡,而不同类型的滑坡也“需要”不同的降雨临界值.本文以陕北黄土高原广泛发育的-种典型地质灾害-黄土滑塌作为研究对象,从定性分析降雨入渗的机理入手,探讨了不同入渗模式下雨水对滑塌的诱发作用,初步建立了缓慢下渗诱发型、下渗阻滞诱发型、下渗贯通诱发型三种降雨诱发黄土滑塌的模式.运用统计学的方法,对陕西北部地区25个县(市、区)1960年～2008年发生的有准确日期记录的227个黄土滑塌和降雨数据进行分类,建立了不同降雨入渗诱发类型下的黄土滑塌降雨临界值或预警值.     

黑龙江龙江盆地中侏罗统万宝组时代确定新证据及其地质意义

黑龙江西部大兴安岭地区侏罗纪地层研究程度不高,以往中侏罗世含煤地层的确定主要借助于与吉林西部万宝组的对比。近年来随着新一轮大兴安岭地区含煤及油气地层的区域地质调查工作的开展,笔者在大兴安岭地区中段的龙江盆地（黑龙江省龙江县以西）发现一套新的中侏罗世含煤地层,该地层由砂砾岩和火山碎屑岩夹煤层组成。文中对龙江盆地万宝组火山岩夹层内2件凝灰岩进行了LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年分析,获得凝灰岩形成时代,其年龄分别为(165.2±1.7) Ma和(162.1±1.6) Ma;笔者采得的植物大化石为Neocalamites Coniopteris Raphaelia组合,时代显示为早-中侏罗世;孢粉化石经初步鉴定,时代倾向于早-中侏罗世;综合同位素年龄及地层古生物研究,笔者认为龙江盆地万宝组的形成时代为中侏罗世晚期。地球化学分析显示：万宝组凝灰岩具有高Si、Al,低Ca、P过铝质钙碱性火山岩特点,富集轻稀土元素,配分曲线呈平缓右倾型,并具有明显负Eu异常;富集大离子亲石元素Cs、Th、U,亏损高场强元素Nb、Ti、Zr,反映火山岩为壳源成因类型。万宝期火山活动可能与古太平洋板块俯冲作用和蒙古-鄂霍茨克缝合带演化双重作用有关,而与蒙古-鄂霍茨克缝合带演化联系更密切。目前中侏罗统万宝组是油气勘探的重要新层系,本研究不仅为大兴安岭东坡地区中侏罗世含煤地层的划分、对比提供同位素年代学和生物地层学依据,而且为龙江盆地形成演化历史及油气资源勘查提供了基础地质新资料。     

基于HRCLDAS/CLM陆面数据同化系统的青藏高原地区土壤湿度模拟研究

利用最新的高时空分辨率（1 km、1 h）的中国气象局高分辨率陆面数据同化系统（HRCLDAS-V1.0）大气近地面强迫资料,驱动由NCAR发展的通用陆面模式（CLM）,对青藏高原地区2015年1月1日至9月30日的土壤湿度开展了模拟研究。结果表明模拟得到的高时空分辨率（1 km、1 h）土壤湿度能够体现出青藏高原地区从东南向西北逐渐变低的空间分布特征,较好地表现出各层土壤湿度的时间变化特征,6~9月土壤湿度波动较大,1~5月波动较平缓,上层土壤湿度变幅较大,深层变化较平缓。0~5 cm、0~10 cm和10~40 cm深度土壤湿度模拟结果与观测值的相关系数均在0.8以上,其中0~5 cm土层的相关系数达到0.92,各层土壤湿度观测值与模拟值的均方根误差变化则相反,3个土层土壤湿度模拟结果与观测值的偏差均小于0.04 mm3 mm-3,但模式对于研究时段土壤湿度变化的低值有高估现象,且模拟能力随着土层深度的加深而减弱。     

一次暴雨空报的诊断分析

实时天气系统的时空分布、多个物理要素、雷达回波特征都表现出24小时内鄂东地区及武汉单站有暴雨天气发生,结果暴雨空报。为了找到暴雨空报原因,对T213数值预报产品中多个物理要素进行诊断分析。首先根据物理量场分析鄂东地区暴雨是否产生;其次根椐物理量值分析武汉单站有否暴雨。结果表明：鄂东及武汉单站多个物理要素场和值不支持有暴雨产生。如：没有能量锋区、湿度锋区和水汽的辐合支持降水天气系统继续发展和加强,鄂东不会产生区域性暴雨。武汉单站涡度平流反映出低层正值高层负值,这种配置没有动力作用。垂直速度表明在汉口上空整层为下沉气流区,产生不了动力不稳定。单站ra和rf值表现出,前者为正值的水汽辐散;后者为小值。K指数不但没有达到K≥35℃以上,而且表现出逐日递减。这几种要素值都不支持单站次级环流的产生,所以,武汉不会发生暴雨。     

基于概率匹配的西南区域模式定量降水订正试验

利用2014—2015年5—10月地面观测降水资料和同时段的西南区域模式降水预报资料,基于概率匹配方法,采取分区及点对点匹配两种方案对2016年6—8月降水集中时段逐12h累积降水进行订正试验。结果表明:(1)订正后的模式预报相比订正前而言,平均(绝对)误差有所减小,降水落区的范围和平均强度与实况更加接近;(2)量级偏差越大,运用该方法的订正效果越好,夜间降水订正效果优于白天;(3)分区统计方案对模式系统性偏差的订正效果优于点对点方案,合理的区域划分增加统计样本量可以提高订正效果。     

Effects of turbulent dispersion of atmospheric balance motions of planetary boundary layer

New Reynolds' mean momentum equations including both turbulent viscosity and dispersion are used to analyze atmospheric balance motions of the planetary boundary layer. It is pointed out that turbulent dispersion with r 0 will increase depth of Ekman layer, reduce wind velocity in Ekman layer and produce a more satisfactory Ekman spiral lines fit the observed wind hodograph. The wind profile in the surface layer including tur-bulent dispersion is still logarithmic but the von Karman constant k is replaced by k1 = 1 -2/k, the wind increasesa little more rapidly with height.     

Composition and distribution of planktonic ciliates in the southern South China Sea during late summer: Comparison between surface and 75 m deep layer

Ciliates are very important components in most marine ecosystem.They are trophic link between the microbial food web and grazing food chain.In this study,ciliates were collected from 11 sites in the southern South China Sea(SCS) during August 25 to September 28,2011.Their composition and distribution at the surface and 75 m deep depth of the ocean were studied.A total of 30 species belonging to 22 genera were identified,and 22 species of 15 genera were Tintinnids.Eutintinnus fraknoii and E.stramentus were the most common species.The other dominants were strombidiids ciliates including Strombidium conicum and S.globosaneum,which were followed by the tide form,Mesodinium pulex.Ciliates abundance ranged from 46 ind L~(-1) to 368 ind L~(-1) in the open sites,46–368 ind L~(-1) at surface and 73–198 ind L~(-1) at 75 m deep layer.In the Yongshu reef,ciliates abundance ranged from 167 ind L~(-1) to 365 ind L~(-1) in the water column,similar to that in Sanya coral reef waters.Ciliates composition showed obvious difference between surface and 75 m deep layer at station S2(P 0.05),while no similar result was observed at other sites.At 75 m deep layer,salinity was negatively related to mixed layer depth(P 0.05),but positively to chlorophyll a concentration(P 0.05),indicating that the change of vertical mixing in water column influenced vertical distribution of ciliates in the southern SCS.     

Spatio-temporal variability of surface soil water content and its influencing factors in a desert area,China

Abstract

Knowledge of the variability of soil water content (SWC) in space and time plays a key role in hydrological and climatic modelling. However, limited attention has been given to arid regions. The focus of this study was to investigate the spatio-temporal variability of surface soil (0–6 cm) water content and to identify its controlling factors in a region of the Gobi Desert (40 km²). The standard deviation of SWC decreased logarithmically as mean water content decreased, and the coefficient of variation of SWC exhibited a convex upward pattern. The spatial variability of SWC also increased with the size of the investigated area. The spatial dependence of SWC changed over time, with stronger patterns of spatial organization in drier and wetter conditions of soil wetness and stochastic patterns in moderate soil water conditions. The dominant factors regulating the variability of SWC changed from combinations of soil and topographical properties (bulk density, clay content and relative elevation) in wet conditions to combinations of soil and vegetation properties (bulk density, clay content and shrub coverage) in dry conditions. This study has important implications for the assessment of soil quality and the sustainability of land management in arid regions.     

西南区域中心模式SWC-WARMS降水偏差分析

本文利用2014—2015年5—10月12(24)h累积降水资料和西南区域模式(SouthWest Center WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System,SWC-WARMS)36(72 h)预报时效内降水预报资料,从概率和频次角度分析不同海拔高度地区观测和模式降水在量级及空间分布上的特征差异。结果表明,SWC-WARMS模式各预报时效各量级降水的概率密度均比观测偏大,并向10 mm以下雨量集中,且随预报时效延长偏大更显著;模式与观测降水的概率密度曲线差异在盆地小于高原,地形差异小的区域小于地形差异大的区域。SWC-WARMS模式对四川地区降水预报存在雨日较观测明显偏多,量级偏大,降水频次高值区范围偏大、出现虚假高值区等系统性偏差。此外,模式预报在20—08时比08—20时优,24 h累积降水预报优于12 h降水预报,尤以中雨及以上量级降水落区预报为甚。最后,模式极端强降水预报在20—08、20—20时较实况偏大,08—20时,模式预报在盆地较实况偏小,川西高原和攀西地区偏大。     

Research on China’s aquaculture efficiency evaluation and influencing factors with undesirable outputs

Taking the aquaculture area, the number of farming boats and that of aquaculturist as input variables, the aquaculture production as desirable output variable and polluted economic loss as undesirable ...