Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.     

Slope inclinometers for landslides

Slope inclinometers/indicators are used to determine the magnitude, rate, direction, depth, and type of landslide movement. This information is usually vitally important for understanding the cause, behavior, and remediation of a landslide. However, many inclinometer measurements fail to achieve these intended aims because of lack of appreciation of the many factors that need to be correctly implemented during installation, monitoring, and data reduction to yield useful data. This paper presents some guidelines for understanding, installing, and interpreting slope inclinometers and presents three case histories that illustrate some of the pitfalls that can develop if these guidelines are not followed.     

基于增强型GPS的自适应UKF实时星间相对定位方法

高精度的星间实时相对定位是卫星编队飞行的一项关键技术。本文以双星编队为例,提出一种基于GPS双频P码、双频载波相位以及星间距离观测信息的自适应UKF、实时相对定位方法。仿真结果表明:相比传统的EKF方法,该算法能有效地提高滤波稳定性及相对定位精度,而且,星间测距信息的引入能大大减少整周模糊度判定所需的历元数。     

Sedimentary characteristics of terrigenous debris at site MD05-2905 in the northeastern part of the South China Sea since 36 ka and evolution of the East Asian monsoon

Sediments with high sedimentation rate at site MD05-2905 in the Northeastern slope of the South China Sea provide unique materials for a high-resolution study on the paleoenvironment. Based on precise dating of AMS ¹⁴C, grain size analysis of terrigenous debris at core MD05-2905 was conducted after organic matter, biological carbonate and biogenic opal were removed. The results show that 15.5–63.5 μm coarse grain size ingredients may indicate East Asian winter monsoon changes and that 2–9 μm fine grain size ingredients may be used as a proxy of evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. The results of grain size analysis, which suggest East Asian monsoon intensity, reveal that a winter monsoon dominated the glacial regime and a summer monsoon dominated the Holocene regime. It was also shown that the summer monsoon increased gradually, experienced several abrupt changes and reached a culmination in the early Holocene (11200–8500 a B.P.) since 36 ka. Controlled by precession periodicity, it may be related with the amount of solar radiation at the highest stage, which needs further study. __________ Translated from Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(10): 1012–1018 [译自: 地球科学进展]     

盘南响水矿井船形构造特征及其对煤层开采的影响

盘南响水井田播土采区内北西向断层成组出现,倾向相对,地面大致平行或呈透镜状延伸,深部相交消失,空间形态组合类似船体形状。通过对船形构造内的断层组合及成因分析,认为该船形构造属挽近地质历史时期形成的重力滑动构造,其两侧利用和追踪了先期形成的北西向断层,主滑面主要沿煤系地层中部的17、19煤层等软弱层发育。根据船形构造发育特点,分析了各个船形构造对煤系地层及煤层的切割破坏程度,为矿井生产中的构造预测提供了依据。     

菲降解菌的降解特性及酶促反应动力学研究

通过对取自MBR膜生物反应器中的活性污泥加入菲进行富集培养、驯化,分离、纯化出一株能以菲为唯一碳源和能源的短杆状革兰氏阴性菌J-1,细菌长2～5μm,宽1～3μm;研究了初始底物浓度、温度、pH对菌株J-1降解菲的影响,探讨了菌株J-1胞内酶对菲降解的底物抑制动力学。试验表明:菌株J-1在48h内能将不同浓度菲的水溶液中的菲完全降解;菲浓度增加,达到完全降解的时间延长。温度对细菌的降解能力影响较大,菌株J-1对菲降解的最佳温度为28℃。1.15mg·L-1的菲,28℃时48h内能完全降解,而相同时间内10℃时的降解率仅为36.65%。菌株J-1对pH的波动具有一定的适应性,pH在一定范围内(6.0～8.4)变化对菲降解的影响不大,降解反应的最佳pH为7.2。菌株J-1对菲的降解符合一级动力学反应方程。较高的底物浓度对酶促降解反应具有抑制作用,酶促反应的最大速率常数vm=1.17mg·L-1·h-1,米氏常数Km=61.70mg·L-1;底物抑制常数kS=49.60mg·L-1;最佳底物浓度[S]opt=55.32mg·L-1。     

第二次土地调查若干问题探讨

第二次土地调查的目的是全面查清全国土地利用状况,掌握真实的土地基础数据,如何保证调查的质量?文章以江阴市为例进行探讨。     

Using Sequential Self-Calibration Method to Identify Conductivity Distribution: Conditioning on Tracer Test data

An iterative inverse method, the sequential self-calibration method, is developed for mapping spatial distribution of a hydraulic conductivity field by conditioning on nonreactive tracer breakthrough curves. A streamline-based, semi-analytical simulator is adopted to simulate solute transport in a heterogeneous aquifer. The simulation is used as the forward modeling step. In this study, the hydraulic conductivity is assumed to be a deterministic or random variable. Within the framework of the streamline-based simulator, the efficient semi-analytical method is used to calculate sensitivity coefficients of the solute concentration with respect to the hydraulic conductivity variation. The calculated sensitivities account for spatial correlations between the solute concentration and parameters. The performance of the inverse method is assessed by two synthetic tracer tests conducted in an aquifer with a distinct spatial pattern of heterogeneity. The study results indicate that the developed iterative inverse method is able to identify and reproduce the large-scale heterogeneity pattern of the aquifer given appropriate observation wells in these synthetic cases.     

The Tau Model for Data Redundancy and Information Combination in Earth Sciences: Theory and Application

Many decision-making processes in the Earth sciences require the combination of multiple data originating from diverse sources. These data are often indirect and uncertain, and their combination would call for a probabilistic approach. These data are also partially redundant with each other or with all others taken jointly. This overlap in information arises due to a variety of reasons—because the data arises from the same geology, because they originate from the same location or the same measurement device, etc. The proposed tau model combines partially redundant data, each taking the form of a prior probability for the event being assessed to occur given that single datum. The parameters of that tau model measure the additional contribution brought by any single datum over that of all previously considered data; they are data sequence-dependent and also data value-dependent. Data redundancy depends on the sequence in which the data is considered and also on the data values themselves. However, for a given sequence, averaging the tau model parameters over all possible data values leads to exact analytical expressions and corresponding approximations and inference avenues. Information on multiple-point connectivity of permeability arrives from core data, well-test data and seismic data which are defined over varying supports with complex redundancy between these information sources. In order to compute these tau weights for determining connectivity, one needs a model of data redundancy, here expressed as a vectorial training image (Ti) constructed using a prior conceptual knowledge of geology and the physics of data measurement. From such a vectorial Ti, the tau weights can be computed exactly. Neglecting data redundancy leads to an over-compounding of individual data information and the possible risk of making extreme decisions.     

Group Time Delay in the Reflection of P-Polarized Electromagnetic Plane Waves at a Stratigraphic Interface

The group time delay (GTD) formulae of quasi-total reflection of inhomogeneous P-polarized electromagnetic waves (P-PEW, whose electric field parallels to the plane of incidence), caused by the Goos–Hänchen effect, is derived by the phase shift of the wave. A numerical example where the frequency equals to 1 GHz is given. The curves of calculating results show that there are three discontinuous points at the critical angle of phase shift vector, the critical angle of attenuation vector and 90^○. When the angle of incidence is equal to one of these three angles, the GTD will become infinite, and the electromagnetic wave will propagate along the interface. The GTD will be very large, when the angle of incidence is close to one of these three angles. The results indicate that there is an important relationship between the two critical angles and the conductivity and permittivity of the two strata, and that the GTD has an important relationship with the angle of incidence. These results can be used to determine the lithology of the strata and to delimit the interfaces of strata more effectively. It is suggested that this research may prove useful in electromagnetic logging analysis and, perhaps, in the design of logging instruments.