SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

Effect of spatial variation characteristics on contouring of design storm depth

The ordinary kriging method, a geostatistical interpolation technique, was applied for developing contour maps of design storm depth in northern Taiwan using intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) data. Results of variogram modelling on design storm depths indicate that the design storms can be categorized into two distinct storm types: (i) storms of short duration and high spatial variation and (ii) storms of long duration and less spatial variation. For storms of the first category, the influence range of rainfall depth decreases when the recurrence interval increases, owing to the increasing degree of their spatial independence. However, for storms of the second category, the influence range of rainfall depth does not change significantly and has an average of approximately 72 km. For very extreme events, such as events of short duration and long recurrence interval, we do not recommend usage of the established design storm contours, because most of the interstation distances exceed the influence ranges. Our study concludes that the influence range of the design storm depth is dependent on the design duration and recurrence interval and is a key factor in developing design storm contours. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

类太阳色球活动星εEri磁场的观测研究

本文给出１９９３—１９９４年期间，用云南天文台１米望远镜折轴摄谱仪观测获得类太阳色球活动星。εＥｒｉ的５个波段高分辨、高信噪比光谱，运用两种不同方法：谱线轮廓塞曼致宽分析和多重线统计分析法成功地测定了εＥｒｉ的表面磁场强度和磁场的覆盖因子，并对这两种磁场测定方法作了简单的讨论．     

Dynamic analysis of three-dimensional marine cables

Marine cables are widely used in a variety of offshore activities. In this paper, a numerical approach is presented which is capable of predicting the dynamic behaviour of three-dimensional marine cables. The solution of this problem is of practical importance in the estimation of dybamic loading and motion, and thus has direct application to the enhancement of safety and the effectiveness of the offshore activities. The approach is based upon the lump-mass-and-spring model and the finite difference method. Mathematical analysis is provided on the basic characteristics of the model and the numerical stability. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the validity of the approach.     

Elastic solutions for stresses in a transversely isotropic half‐space subjected to three‐dimensional buried parabolic rectangular loads

In many areas of engineering practice, applied loads are not uniformly distributed but often concentrated towards the centre of a foundation. Thus, loads are more realistically depicted as distributed as linearly varying or as parabola of revolution. Solutions for stresses in a transversely isotropic half‐space caused by concave and convex parabolic loads that act on a rectangle have not been derived. This work proposes analytical solutions for stresses in a transversely isotropic half‐space, induced by three‐dimensional, buried, linearly varying/uniform/parabolic rectangular loads. Load types include an upwardly and a downwardly linearly varying load, a uniform load, a concave and a convex parabolic load, all distributed over a rectangular area. These solutions are obtained by integrating the point load solutions in a Cartesian co‐ordinate system for a transversely isotropic half‐space. The buried depth, the dimensions of the loaded area, the type and degree of material anisotropy and the loading type for transversely isotropic half‐spaces influence the proposed solutions. An illustrative example is presented to elucidate the effect of the dimensions of the loaded area, the type and degree of rock anisotropy, and the type of loading on the vertical stress in the isotropic/transversely isotropic rocks subjected to a linearly varying/uniform/parabolic rectangular load. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First Post-Newtonian Angular Momentum In Relativistic Celestial Mechanics

With a new theory on the 1PN celestial mechanics recently developed by Damour, Soffel and Xu (1991,1992,1993,1994), definitions and expressions of the 1PN spin angular momentum are investigated and analysed. The total spin angular momentum of a system of extended bodies such as the solar system is calculated and expressed as the function of local parameters and observables under reasonable assumptions, which would find its application in the evolution and dynamics of systems of celestial bodies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The influence of a non‐associated flow rule on the calculation of the factor of safety of soil slopes

This paper presents a method that incorporates a non‐associated flow rule into the limit analysis to investigate the influence of the dilatancy angle on the factor of safety for the slope stability analysis. The proposed method retain's the advantage of the upper bound method, which is simple and has no stress involvement in the calculation of the energy dissipation and the factor of safety. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Abundance and isotopic composition of noble gases in metal and graphite of the Bohumilitz IAB iron meteorite

Abstract— Abundances and isotopic compositions of noble gases in metal and graphite of the Bohumilitz IAB iron meteorite were measured. The abundance ratios of spallogenic components in metal reveal a ³He deficiency which is due to the diffusive loss of parent isotopes, that is, tritium (Tilles, 1963; Schultz, 1967). The diffusive loss likely has been induced by thermal heating by the Sun during cosmic‐ray exposure (～160 Ma; Lavielle et al, 1999). Thermal process such as impact‐induced partial loss may have affected the isotopic composition of spallogenic Ne. The ¹²⁹Xe/¹³¹Xe ratio of cosmogenic components in the metal indicates an enhanced production of epi‐thermal neutrons. The abundance ratios of spallogenic components in the graphite reveal that it contained small amounts of metal and silicates. The isotopic composition of heavy noble gases in graphite itself was obtained from graphite treated with HF/HCl. The isotopic composition of the etched graphite shows that it contains two types of primordial Xe (i.e., Q‐Xe and El Taco Xe). The isotopic heterogeneity preserved in the Bohumilitz graphite indicates that the Bohumilitz graphite did not experience any high‐temperature event and, consequently, must have been emplaced into the metal at subsolidus temperatures. This situation is incompatible with an igneous model as well as the impact melting models for the IAB‐IIICD iron meteorites as proposed by Choi et al. (1995) and Wasson et al (1980).     

Optical Flash of GRB 990123: Constraints on the Physical Parameters of the Reverse Shock

The optical flash accompanying GRB 990123 is believed to be powered by the reverse shock of a thin shell. With the best-fit physical parameters for GRB 990123 and the assumption that the parameters in the optical flash are the same as in the afterglow, we show that: 1) the shell is thick rather than thin, and we have provided the light curve for the thick shell case which coincides with the observation; 2) the theoretical peak flux of the optical flash accounts for only 3×10~-4 of the observed. In order to remove this discrepancy, the physical parameters, the electron energy and magnetic ratios, εe and εB, should be 0.61 and 0.39, which are very different from their values for the late afterglow.