Tsunami flooding extension for coastal zones of Mexico

Abstract

Joint probabilities of runup height due to astronomical tides and tsunamis are calculated for five bays on the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. Runup heights equaled or exceeded on the average of once per 100 years, and once per 200 years, for those bays, are evaluated. Calculations are based on wave height probabilities obtained from sets of harmonic constituents and tsunami heights recorded during the last 28 years at tidal stations on each location.

Extension of potential tsunami terrestrial flooding for populated coastal zones around those bays can be determined from the previous results. One case is illustrated showing endangered features in the hazardous zones, and recommendations to prevent casualties and property damages are given.     

An observation made in 1602 of an aurora in North America

The earliest known record of an aurora sighting in North America was made by Jesuit missionaries in New Brunswick, Canada, in the year 1611. Here, we wish to report an earlier record made in 1602 by the Notary Public of the Spanish Manila Galleon “San Antonio de Padua” while sailing near the coast of California. We also include a brief account of the circumstances and peculiar concurrence of events leading to the 1602 sighting.     

Geoarchaeological study of the Phoenician cemetery of Tyre‐Al Bass (Lebanon) and geomorphological evolution of a tombolo

The geoarchaeological record of the Phoenician necropolis of Al Bass (Lebanon) provides information concerning the geomorphological evolution of a late Holocene tombolo. Physical and chemical analysis of sediments indicates that the cemetery (9th century B.C.) was located near a littoral lagoon, between the dunes of a cuspate spit pointing toward the island of Tyre. From the sea apex of this spit, the moles mentioned in historical chronicles were constructed. Once mainland and island were connected, at the northern coast (where the port of Sidon was located), a sediment trap was formed, which quickly filled with silt. Afterwards, an extensive field of sand dunes buried all the archaeological remains from Phoenician to Roman times. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

An approach for valid covariance estimation via the Fourier series

The use of kriging for construction of prediction or risk maps requires estimating the dependence structure of the random process, which can be addressed through the approximation of the covariance function. The nonparametric estimators used for the latter aim are not necessarily valid to solve the kriging system, since the positive-definiteness condition of the covariance estimator typically fails. The usage of a parametric covariance instead may be attractive at first because of its simplicity, although it may be affected by misspecification. An alternative is suggested in this paper to obtain a valid covariance from a nonparametric estimator through the Fourier series tool, which involves two issues: estimation of the Fourier coefficients and selection of the truncation point to determine the number of terms in the Fourier expansion. Numerical studies for simulated data have been conducted to illustrate the performance of this approach. In addition, an application to a real environmental data set is included, related to the presence of nitrate in groundwater in Beja District (Portugal), so that pollution maps of the region are generated by solving the kriging equations with the use of the Fourier series estimates of the covariance.     

Quantification of bank erosion in a drained agricultural lowland catchment

The long‐term and current volumes of sediment exported from stream banks were calculated as potential sources of sediment in a large pond located at the catchment outlet of a small agricultural lowland basin strongly affected by anthropogenic pressure in France. Bank erosion was measured over a short period using a network of erosion pins along a small stream (1400 m long) to quantify the material exported during a single winter (2012–2013). The material exported by this same stream over the last 69 years was quantified using an original approach involving the comparison of a compilation of three‐dimensional historical stream redesign plans that date back to 1944 with the state of the banks in 2013 (differential global positioning system and LiDAR data). The results suggest that a global trend of material loss along the stream banks monitored by erosion pins, with an average erosion rate of 17.7 mm year^?1 and an average volume of exported material of 75 t km^?1. Over 69 years, this same stream exported an average of 36 t km^?1 year^?1, and the average loss of material from the banks throughout the whole catchment was estimated to be 14 t km^?1 year^?1. The contribution of bank material to the filling of the pond over the last 10 years is between 46% and 52% based on an extrapolation of erosion pin dynamics or between 27% and 30% based on the comparison of LiDAR data to the average historical profile extrapolated for the catchment. These results suggest that bank erosion represents a major source of sediment in degraded waters in traditionally understudied agricultural lowland catchments, where anthropogenic pressures are high.     

Lateral and topographic effects in geoelectric soundings

Several two-dimensional structures are modelled for vertical electrical soundings in arrays parallel and perpendicular to the strike of the structure. The models are a horst and a graben within a three-layer medium, a cliff over two layers, and heterogeneities around the electrodes. Apparent resistivity curves are shown for different model parameters and different distances to the two-dimensional structures. Some of the features on the shape of these curves are inflections that may be misinterpreted as fictitious layers, of slopes greater than 45°; some features are simply anomalous peaks. One-dimensional interpretation of a two-dimensional graben model has been performed, in order to show typical errors when 2D structures are interpreted as one-dimensional. A real case corresponding to a landfill near Barcelona and showing strong lateral and topographic effects is presented. This represents combined effects of the above theoretical 2D models.     

Estimates of Horizontal Groundwater Flow Velocities in Boreholes

Currently, monitoring tools can be deployed in observation boreholes to better assess groundwater flow, flux of dissolved contaminants and their mass discharge in an aquifer. The relationship between horizontal water velocity in observation boreholes and Darcy fluxes in the surrounding aquifer has been studied for natural flow conditions (i.e., no pumping). Interpretation of measurements taken with dilution tests, the colloidal borescope, the Heat Pulse Flowmeter, and other techniques require the conversion of observed borehole velocity u to aquifer Darcy flux q_∞ . This conversion is typically done through a proportionality factor α = u/q_∞ . In experimental studies as well as in theoretical developments, reported values of α vary almost three orders of magnitude (from 0.5 to 10). This large variability in reported values of α could be explained by: (1) unclear distinction between Darcy flux and water seepage velocity, (2) unclear definition of water velocity in the borehole, (3) effects of well screen and the presence of the measurement device itself on the observable velocities, and (4) hydraulic conditions in the borehole annulus. We address (1), (2) from a conceptual/theoretical perspective, and (3) by means of numerical simulations. We show that issue (1) in low porosity aquifers can yield to order-of-magnitude discrepancies in estimates of q_∞ ; (2) may result in discrepancies of up to 50%, and (3) can cause differences up to 20% of water velocity in the borehole void space compared to the theoretical case of an open borehole.     

Lateglacial and Holocene palaeohydrology in the western Mediterranean region: The Lake Estanya record (NE Spain)

The multi-proxy analysis of sediment cores recovered in karstic Lake Estanya (42°02′ N, 0°32′ E; 670 m a. s. l., NE Spain), located in the transitional area between the humid Pyrenees and the semi-arid Central Ebro Basin, provides the first high-resolution, continuous sedimentary record in the region, extending back the last 21 000 years. The integration of sedimentary facies, elemental and isotopical geochemistry and biogenic silica, together with a robust age model based on 17 AMS radiocarbon dates, enables precise reconstruction of the main hydrological and environmental changes in the region during the last deglaciation.Arid conditions, represented by shallow lake levels, predominantly saline waters and reduced organic productivity occurred throughout the last glacial maximum (21–18 cal kyrs BP) and the lateglacial, reaching their maximum intensity during the period 18–14.5 cal kyrs BP (including Heinrich event 1) and the Younger Dryas (12.9–11.6 cal kyrs BP). Less saline conditions characterized the 14.5–12.6 cal kyrs BP period, suggesting higher effective moisture during the Bölling/Allerød. The onset of more humid conditions started at 9.4 cal kyrs, indicating a delayed hydrological response to the onset of the Holocene which is also documented in several sites of the Mediterranean Basin. Higher, although fluctuating, Holocene lake levels were punctuated by a mid Holocene arid period between 4.8 and 4.0 cal kyrs BP. A major lake-level rise occurred at 1.2 cal kyrs BP, conducive to the establishment of conditions similar to the present and interrupted by a last major water level drop, occurring around 800 cal yrs BP, which coincides with the Medieval Climate Anomaly.The main hydrological stages in Lake Estanya are in phase with most Western Mediterranean and North Atlantic continental and marine records, but our results also show similarities with other Iberian and northern African reconstructions, emphasizing peculiarities of palaeohydrological evolution of the Iberian Peninsula during the last deglaciation.