Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

Study of geothermal water intrusion due to groundwater exploitation in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico

Significant intrusion of geothermal water into fresh groundwater takes place in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico. The decline in the potentiometric surface due to the overexploitation of the groundwater induces this intrusion. This hydrological system comprises three aquifers located in Plio-Quaternary volcanic sediments and Mesozoic calcareous rocks. The hydraulic balance of the aquifer shows that the annual output exceeds the natural inputs by 12 million m³. Between 1973 and 2002, a drop in the potentiometric surface, with an 80 m cone of depression, was identified in a 5-km-wide area located southwest of the city of Puebla. Chemical analyses performed on water samples since 1990 have shown an increase in total dissolved solids (TDS) of more than 500 mg/L, coinciding with the region showing a cone of depression in the potentiometric surface. A three-dimensional flow and transport model, based on the hydrogeological and geophysical studies, was computed by using the MODFLOW and MT3D software. This model reproduces the evolution of the aquifer system during the last 30 years and predicts for 2010 an additional drawdown in the potentiometric surface of 15 m, and an increase in the geothermal water intrusion.     

Will the river Irtysh survive the year 2030? Impact of long-term unsuitable land use and water management of the upper stretch of the river catchment (North Kazakhstan)

The Irtysh river basin all the way from river spring in China across Kazakhstan as far as the Russian part of Siberia is among the most ecologically endangered and affected regions on our planet. The study provides a summary of the historical reasons for anthropological interventions in this area, which began with the construction of plants of the military—industrial complexes in the forties of the last century during World War II. These plants have a major share in extreme high concentrations of heavy metals in surface as well in groundwaters locally. The Semipalatinsk nuclear polygon plays a specific role as a source of contamination of local waters. The release of top secret data enabled us to gain knowledge about serious problems related to high radioactivity of groundwaters, which should spread uncontrollably through a system of secondary fissures activated by nuclear blasts. Another serious problem in this region is the quantitative aspect of contamination. Model simulations of water balance indicate that large industrial development in the spring area in China and continuously increasing water consumption in Kazakhstan may lead to desiccation of the lower stretch of this large river in Siberia during the summer months of 2030.     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

Reconstructing hydrological variability from testate amoebae analysis in Carpathian peatlands

Peatlands offer the potential for high resolution records of water balance over Holocene timescales, yet this potential is under-exploited in many areas of the world. Within Europe, peatlands are mostly confined to areas north of 55° N, but several areas of southern and eastern Europe contain small peatlands which may be suitable for palaeoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper we test the potential of peatlands in the Carpathian region for deriving quantified estimates of water table changes using testate amoebae analysis. A training set for palaeohydrological reconstruction from testate amoebae assemblages was obtained by collecting surface samples from 13 peatlands, including 9 from Hungary and 4 from Transylvania (Romania). Using a simple measure of mean annual water tables estimated from staining of PVC tape, we found that some peatlands were heavily influenced by runoff and groundwater, and were therefore not suitable as modern analogues of ombrotrophic climatically sensitive sites. The relationship between the testate amoebae assemblages in the modern samples and the environmental variables was explored using CCA. The CCA biplot showed that the most important variables are depth to water table and moisture content, confirming that hydrology is a key control on taxon distribution. pH was a secondary gradient. A transfer function for % moisture and depth to water table was established and applied to fossil assemblages from a sequence from Fenyves-tető, Transylvania, Romania. The reconstructed water table shows a number of variations which have parallels with other palaeoclimatic records from Europe and the North Atlantic prominent phases of higher water tables are associated with the periods 8000–8300 cal BP, 3000–2500 cal BP and after 600 cal BP. We suggest that these were periods of particular intensification of westerly airflow which affected eastern Europe as well as western and central Europe.     

Diffusion-limited REE uptake by eclogite garnets and its consequences for Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd geochronology

Garnets from the Zermatt-Saas Fee eclogites contain narrow central peaks for Lu + Yb + Tm ± Er and at least one additional small peak towards the rim. The REE Sm + Eu + Gd + Tb ± Dy are depleted in the cores but show one prominent peak close to the rim. These patterns cannot be modeled using Rayleigh fractionation accompanied by mineral breakdown reactions. Instead, the patterns are well explained using a transient matrix diffusion model where REE uptake is limited by diffusion in the matrix surrounding the porphyroblast. Observed profiles are well matched if a roughly linear radius growth rate is used. The secondary peaks in the garnet profiles are interpreted to reflect thermally activated diffusion due to temperature increase during prograde metamorphism. The model predicts anomalously low ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf and ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios in garnets where growth rates are fast compared to diffusion of the REE, and these results have important implications for Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd geochronology using garnet.     

Synchrotron IR study of hydrous ringwoodite (γ-Mg2SiO4) up to 30 GPa

High-pressure synchrotron infrared (IR) absorption spectra were collected between 650 and 4,000 cm⁻¹ at ambient temperature for hydrous Mg-ringwoodite (γ-Mg₂SiO₄) up to 30 GPa. The main feature in the OH⁻ stretching region is an extremely broad band centred at 3,150 cm⁻¹. The hydrogen bond is strong for most protons and the most probable site for protonation is the tetrahedral edge. With increasing pressure, this band shifts downward while decreasing its integrated intensity until disappearance at a pressure of 25 GPa. Only one band at 2,450 cm⁻¹ and an absorption plateau persist with a maximum wavenumber of 3,800 cm⁻¹. This behaviour is reversible upon pressure release. We interpret this as a second-order phase transition occurring in hydrated Mg-ringwoodite at high pressure (beyond ∼ 25 GPa). This result is compatible with the observation by Kleppe et al. (Phys Chem Miner 29:473–476, 2002a) who suggested the presence of Si–O–Si linkages and/or partial increase in the coordination of Si. Beyond the phase transition, the protons are delocalized and their environment on the ringwoodite structure is probably quite different from that at low pressure. Data obtained in situ at high pressures and temperatures are needed to better understand the effect of protonation on the structure and to better constrain this phase transition.     

Faulted backfold versus reactivated backthrust: the role of inherited structures during late extension in the frontal Piémont nappes east of Pelvoux (Western Alps)

In the central part of the internal Western Alps, widespread multidirectional normal faulting resulted in an orogen-scale radial extension during the Neogene. We revisit the frontal Piémont units, between Doire and Ubaye, where contrasting lithologies allow analysing the interference with the N–S trending Oligocene compressive structures. A major extensional structure is the orogen-perpendicular Chenaillet graben, whose development was guided by an E–W trending transfer fault zone between the Chaberton backfold to the north and the Rochebrune backthrust to the south. The Chaberton hinge zone was passively crosscut by planar normal faults, resulting in a E–W trending step-type structure. Within the Rochebrune nappe, E–W trending listric normal faults bound tilted blocks that slipped northward along the basal backthrust surface reactivated as an extensional detachment. Gravity-driven gliding is suggested by the general northward tilting of the structure in relation with the collapse of the Chenaillet graben. The stress tensors computed from brittle deformation analysis confirm the predominance of orogen-parallel extension in the entire frontal Piémont zone. This can be compared with the nearby Briançonnnais nappe stack where the extensional reactivation of thrust surfaces locally resulted in prominent orogen-perpendicular extension. Such a contrasting situation illustrates how the main direction of the late-Alpine extension may be regionally governed by the nature and orientation of the pre-existing structures inherited from the main collision stage.