Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions

Europe experiences different natural hazards and subsequent risks that have various effects on the development of its regions. The spatial significance of hazards can be expressed as an economic risk when combining hazard potential with vulnerability data. Two examples of European natural hazard maps on floods and earthquakes, as well as the resulting risk profiles of regions (combination of hazard potential and vulnerability) give a first impression on the spatial characters of hazards in Europe and their potential impact on further spatial development. The economic risk maps enable a view on the spatial dimension of the economic damage potential of flood and earthquakes, pointing out comparable situations across Europe with the aim to facilitate targeted responses and policies. The spatial character of a hazard is either defined by spatial effects that might occur in case of a disaster or by the possibility of spatial planning responses. The integration of the economic vulnerability of a region (regional GDP per capita, population density) leads to a classification of areas according to their economic risk or damage potential towards hazards. These synthetic risk profiles are presented as risk maps of European regions in administrative boundaries. Obtained information can be of interest for spatial planning and development strategies, e.g. economic risk profile of regions can influence the targets of investments and could thus be an important background for structural funding.     

Enrichment of redox-sensitive trace metals (U,V, Mo,As) associated with the late Hauterivian Faraoni oceanic anoxic event

The Faraoni Level is a short-lived oxygen-deficient event that took place during the latest Hauterivian. In order to improve our understanding of the palaeoenvironmental conditions that occurred during this event, we have analysed the contents of several redox-sensitive trace elements (U, V, Mo, As, Co, Cd, Cu, Zn, Ni, Pb, Cr) from bulk limestone samples of late Hauterivian–early Barremian age from three reference sections. U, V, Mo and As show consistent and significant enrichments during the Faraoni event whereas the other redox-sensitive trace elements analysed here are not systematically enriched. In order to explain this discrepant behaviour, we propose that the Faraoni Level was deposited during a period of anoxic conditions near the sediment–water interface. The distinctive peaks in U, V, Mo and As contents are traceable throughout the three studied sections and represent a good correlation tool which helps to identify the Faraoni Level and its equivalents in the western Tethyan realm and outside of the Tethys. For example, a peak in U contents in upper Hauterivian sediments of the northwestern Pacific realm (ODP leg 185, site 1149) may well be an expression of the Faraoni event in this particular basin.     

Paleoclimatic implications of late quaternary lacustrine sediments in Western Nubia, Sudan

Owing to the hypercontinental location of Western Nubia, secular fluctuations of climate have been filtered and wet phases can be considered as representative of conditions throughout the southeastern Sahara. The study area is crossed by the 20-mm isohyet; between 9300 and about 4000 yr B.P., however, there were widespread lake and swamp environments with freshwater molluscs, ostracods, and diatoms, and a species-rich savanna mammal fauna. The center of the West Nubian Basin (approx. 18°N), an area of about 20,000 km², was occupied by a semiaquatic landscape which was situated at the same latitude as Paleolake Chad. From extensive lake carbonates up to about 4 m thick, a long-term rise of the groudwater table is inferred. Environments developed that now exist at about latitude 13°N. Radiocarbon dates from lake sediment sequences cluster between 30,000 and 21,000 yr B.P., indicating a Pleistocene wet phase. A gap in radiocarbon dates between 21,000 and 11,000 yr B.P. signals a phase of hyperaridity, similar to the present hyperarid phase, with eolian deflation and deposits of sand being the dominant forms of erosion and accumulation.     

The use of maximum entropy to increase the informational content of hydrological networks by additional gauges

ABSTRACT

The optimization and extension of existing gauging networks are a challenging task, which can be done under consideration of many different aspects. One possibility is to maximize the obtained information on regional hydrological characteristics by new gauges compared to existing ones. For this, information theory approaches are most suitable. Here, the principle of maximum entropy is applied to calculate the probability of non-similarity of catchments to determine locations of new gauges according to the catchment characteristics that are most relevant for the hydrological conditions. The realization in an interactive application, provided online, makes use easy for practitioners and scientists. Goodness-of-fit measures are applied to investigate the explanatory power of the model and the contribution of each characteristic to the model, which gives information on the most influential properties of the catchment. The relevance of the proposed approach is proven by comparing hydrological signatures between similar and non-similar catchment.     

Stable carbon isotope composition and concentrations of CO2 and CH4 in the deep catotelm of a peat bog

Vertical profiles of concentration and C-isotopic composition of dissolved methane and carbon dioxide were observed over 26 months in the catotelm of a deep (6.5 m) peat bog in Switzerland. The dissolved concentrations of these gases increase with depth while CO₂ predominates over CH₄ (CO₂ ca. 5 times CH₄). This pattern can be reproduced by a reaction-advection-ebullition model, where CO₂ and CH₄ are formed in a ratio of 1:1. The less soluble methane is preferentially lost via outgassing (bubbles). The isotopic fractionation between CO₂ and CH₄ also increases with depth, with α_C values ranging from 1.045 to 1.075. The isotopic composition of the gases traces the passage of respiration-derived CO₂ (from the near surface) through a shallow zone with methanogenesis of low isotopic fractionation (splitting of fermentation-derived acetate). This solution then moves through the catotelm, where methanogenesis occurs by CO₂ reduction (large isotopic fractionation). In the upper part of the catotelm the C-13-depleted respiration-derived CO₂ pool buffers the isotopic composition of CO₂; the δ¹³C of CO₂ increases only slowly. At the same time strongly depleted CH₄ is formed as CO₂ reduction consumes the depleted CO₂. In the lower part of the catotelm, the respiration-derived CO₂ and shallow CH₄ become less important and CO₂ reduction is the dominant source of CO₂ and CH₄. Now, the δ¹³C values of both gases increase until equilibrium is reached with respect to the isotopic composition of the substrate. Thus, the δ¹³C values of methane reach a minimum at intermediate depth, and the deep methane has δ¹³C values comparable to shallow methane. A simple mixing model for the isotopic evolution is suggested. Only minor changes of the observed patterns of methanogenesis (in terms of concentration and isotopic composition) occur over the seasons. The most pronounced of these is a slightly higher rate of acetate splitting in spring.     

Coal taxes as supply-side climate policy: a rationale for major exporters?

The shift away from coal is at the heart of the global low-carbon transition. Can governments of coal-producing countries help facilitate this transition and benefit from it? This paper analyses the case for coal taxes as supply-side climate policy implemented by large coal exporting countries. Coal taxes can reduce global carbon dioxide emissions and benefit coal-rich countries through improved terms-of-trade and tax revenue. We employ a multi-period equilibrium model of the international steam coal market to study a tax on steam coal levied by Australia alone, by a coalition of major exporting countries, by all exporters, and by all producers. A unilateral export tax has little impact on global emissions and global coal prices as other countries compensate for reduced export volumes from the taxing country. By contrast, a tax jointly levied by a coalition of major coal exporters would significantly reduce global emissions from steam coal and leave them with a net sector level welfare gain, approximated by the sum of producer surplus, consumer surplus, and tax revenue. Production taxes consistently yield higher tax revenues and have greater effects on global coal consumption with smaller rates of carbon leakages. Questions remain whether coal taxes by major suppliers would be politically feasible, even if they could yield economic benefits.     

Tectono‐sedimentary evolution of the northern Iranian Plateau: insights from middle–late Miocene foreland‐basin deposits

Sedimentary basins in the interior of orogenic plateaus can provide unique insights into the early history of plateau evolution and related geodynamic processes. The northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau of the Arabia–Eurasia collision zone offer the unique possibility to study middle–late Miocene terrestrial clastic and volcaniclastic sediments that allow assessing the nascent stages of collisional plateau formation. In particular, these sedimentary archives allow investigating several debated and poorly understood issues associated with the long‐term evolution of the Iranian Plateau, including the regional spatio‐temporal characteristics of sedimentation and deformation and the mechanisms of plateau growth. We document that middle–late Miocene crustal shortening and thickening processes led to the growth of a basement‐cored range (Takab Range Complex) in the interior of the plateau. This triggered the development of a foreland‐basin (Great Pari Basin) to the east between 16.5 and 10.7 Ma. By 10.7 Ma, a fast progradation of conglomerates over the foreland strata occurred, most likely during a decrease in flexural subsidence triggered by rock uplift along an intraforeland basement‐cored range (Mahneshan Range Complex). This was in turn followed by the final incorporation of the foreland deposits into the orogenic system and ensuing compartmentalization of the formerly contiguous foreland into several intermontane basins. Overall, our data suggest that shortening and thickening processes led to the outward and vertical growth of the northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau starting from the middle Miocene. This implies that mantle‐flow processes may have had a limited contribution toward building the Iranian Plateau in NW Iran.     

Fatal landslides in Europe

Landslides are a major hazard causing human and large economic losses worldwide. However, the quantification of fatalities and casualties is highly underestimated and incomplete, thus, the estimation of landslide risk is rather ambitious. Hence, a spatio-temporal distribution of deadly landslides is presented for 27 European countries over the last 20  years (1995–2014). Catastrophic landslides are widely distributed throughout Europe, however, with a great concentration in mountainous areas. In the studied period, a total of 1370 deaths and 784 injuries were reported resulting from 476 landslides. Turkey showed the highest fatalities with 335. An increasing trend of fatal landslides is observed, with a pronounced number of fatalities in the latest period from 2008 to 2014. The latter are mostly triggered by natural extreme events such as storms (i.e., heavy rainfall), earthquakes, and floods and only minor by human activities, such as mining and excavation works. Average economic loss per year in Europe is approximately 4.7 billion Euros. This study serves as baseline information for further risk mapping by integrating deadly landslide locations, local land use data, and will therefore help countries to protect human lives and property.