Simulations of a comet impact on the Moon and associated ice deposition in polar cold traps

Modeling results of the water vapor plume produced by a comet impact on the Moon and of the resulting water ice deposits in the lunar cold traps are presented. The water vapor plume is simulated near the point of impact by the SOVA hydrocode and in the far field by the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method using as input the SOVA hydrocode solution at a fixed hemispherical interface. The SOVA hydrocode models the physics of the impact event such as the surface deformation and material phase changes during the impact. The further transport and retention processes, including gravity, photodestruction processes, and variable surface temperature with local polar cold traps, are modeled by the DSMC method for months after impact. In order to follow the water from the near field of the impact to the full planetary induced atmosphere, the 3D parallel DSMC code used a collision limiting scheme and an unsteady multi-domain approach. 3D results for the 45° oblique impact of a 2 km in diameter comet on the surface of the Moon at 30 km/s are presented. Most of the cometary water is lost due to escape just after impact and only ∼3% of the cometary water is initially retained on the Moon. Early downrange focusing of the water vapor plume is observed but the later material that is moving more slowly takes on a more symmetric shape with time. Several locations for the point of impact were investigated and final retention rates of ∼0.1% of the comet mass were observed. Based on the surface area of the cold traps used in the present simulations, ∼1 mm of ice would have accumulated in the cold traps after such an impact. Estimates for the total mass of water accumulated in the polar cold traps over 1 byr are consistent with recent observations.     

A comparison of the BALTIMOS coupled climate model with atmospheric and sea surface parameters derived from AMSR-E

The BALTEX Integrated Model System (BALTIMOS) coupled atmosphere ocean model was compared to passive microwave observations of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). Emphasis was put on quantifying the uncertainties associated with the different variables based on data screening both in the model and observations. Monthly means of three atmospheric parameters, as well as sea surface temperature, were compared for a period of 1 year. Sea ice extent was also derived from AMSR-E and compared to the model data on a daily basis. It is shown that the accuracy of the comparisons on a monthly mean basis is limited by precipitation screening. Out of the three atmospheric parameters, surface wind speed and water vapor column amount agree with the model data to within the accuracy of the comparison. The vertically integrated cloud liquid water content diagnosed from BALTIMOS is systematically higher than the liquid water content derived from satellite, even if potential systematic errors are accounted for. In terms of coupling, the two most relevant variables discussed are sea surface temperature and sea ice extent. The temporal extent of sea ice in the investigation area is well represented, as are the periods of the main growing and decay periods. The total sea ice cover appears to be underestimated by BALTIMOS, especially in the peak season between January and the beginning of March. The amplitude of the annual cycle of sea surface temperature in BALTIMOS appears to be too weak compared to the observations, leading to too cold sea surface temperatures in summer and too warm sea surface temperatures in winter. This might also partially explain the underestimation of sea ice cover by BALTIMOS.     

A comparison of solar radiative flux above clouds from MODIS with BALTIMOS regional climate model simulations

A comparison study for the solar radiative flux above clouds is presented between the regional climate model system BALTEX integrated model system (BALTIMOS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations. For MODIS, an algorithm has been developed to retrieve reflected shortwave fluxes over clouds. The study area is the Baltic Sea catchment area during an 11-month period from February to December 2002. The intercomparison focuses on the variations of the daily and seasonal cycle and the spatial distributions. We found good agreement between the observed and the simulated data with a bias of the temporal mean of 13.6 W/m² and a bias of the spatial mean of 35.5 W/m². For summer months, BALTIMOS overestimates the solar flux with up to 90 W/m² (20%). This might be explained by the insufficient representation of cirrus clouds in the regional climate model.     

Evidence of transient topographic disequilibrium in a landward passive margin river system: knickpoints and paleo‐landscapes of the New River basin,southern Appalachians

The upper New River basin of the southern Appalachian Mountains, a major tributary of the modern Ohio River, represents the unglaciated headwaters of the Tertiary Teays River system of eastern North America. Dating of relict fluvial gravels have suggested that New River incision may be outpacing lowering of the surrounding uplands, but physical evidence of transient topographic disequilibrium has yet to be identified. We use focused topographic analysis of the upper New River basin to delineate a perched, low‐relief paleo‐landscape that is experiencing transgressive dissection due to incision by the New River and its tributaries. Accelerated incision has decoupled hillslopes from the drainage network, generating knickpoints which represent the boundary between remnants of the paleo‐landscape and actively adjusting topography downstream. Steepening of hillslopes downstream of knickpoints suggests dynamic headward migration which, along with knickpoint occurrence throughout the drainage network, is inconsistent with the development of fixed stream profile convexities atop strike‐extensive geologic contacts. In the absence of tectonic forcing, we favor a climatically‐forced drop in external base level as driver of the incision pattern we observe. Plio‐Pleistocene glacial damming and diversion of the Teays River to form the modern Ohio River lowered regional base level for the study area, potentially forcing the paleo‐landscape developed during the Teays era to adjust to the modern drainage pattern. The upper New River may therefore represent the potential for glacially‐driven drainage rearrangement to drive transient topographic evolution hundreds of kilometers away from the ice margin, long after the disappearance of ice sheets. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ANALYSIS OF SUMMERTIME DAILY PRECIPITATION FOR THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP REGION

An assessment of the summertime precipitation climate for the Okefenokee Swamp region was undertaken utilizing daily precipitation data from meteorological sites near the swamp for the period 1955-1980. “Runs of dry days” were investigated in relation to total seasonal precipitation and with regard to the distribution of runs by length. Utilizing Markov chain analysis and regression techniques, relationships between the length of runs of dry days and total seasonal precipitation as well as cumulative number of runs of dry days and total seasonal precipitation were established. However, further analysis of the intensty distribution of daily precipitation suggested that the summertime precipitation climate could best be described utilizing an assessment of days with a significant amount of precipitation rather than by studying runs of dry days. An analytical definition of a “significant rain day” was attempted utilizing the correlation of the number of rain days exceeding a given daily precipitation threshold value versus total seasonal precipitation. The most appropriate threshold value was found to be about 0.6 inches, suggesting that days with greater than this amount of precipitation can be defined as significant rain days.     

TRENDS IN MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR THE CONTINGUOUS UNITED STATES, 1940-1983

A temperature departure index is calculated for each month of the year for 10 regions within the contiguous United States utilizing a total of 193 sites for the 44-year period 1940 to 1983. Five-year moving averages of the index values are plotted on graphs for each region by month in an attempt to detect trends toward an increase or decrease in the occurrence of well above or well below normal monthly temperatures in recent years. Considerable regional differences are found with respect to the size and temporal trend of monthly temperature departures. For example, the Northwest and Southwest regions are often exceptions to the average national trend supporting the concept of considerable east-west differences in temperature variation patterns. Only April, June and December show increases in temperature departure index values in the most recent years for a majority of regions while the summer months of July and August do not exhibit a clear national trend. For a majority of months (January, February, March, May, September, October, November), there has been a decrease in the occurrence of unusually above or below normal monthly temperatures for most regions during the late 1970s/early 1980s.     

Multidimensional visualisation of degrees of relevance of geographic data

The ever‐increasing number of spatial data sets accessible through spatial data clearinghouses continues to make geographic information retrieval and spatial data discovery major challenges. Such challenges have been addressed in the discipline of Information Retrieval through ranking of data according to inferred degrees of relevance. Spatial data, however, present an additional challenge as they are characteristically made up of geometry, attribute and, optionally, temporal components. As these components are mutually independent of one another, this paper suggests that they be ranked independently of one another. The representation of the results of the independent ranking of these three components of spatial data suggests that representation of the results of the ranking process requires an alternative approach to currently used textual ranked lists: visualisation of relevance in a three‐dimensional visualisation environment. To illustrate the possible application of such an approach, a prototype browser is presented.     

Split-Match-Aggregate (SMA) algorithm: integrating sidewalk data with transportation network data in GIS

Sidewalk geodata are essential to understand walking behavior. However, such geodata are scarce, only available at the local jurisdiction and not at the regional level. If they exist, the data are stored in geometric representational formats without network characteristics such as sidewalk connectivity and completeness. This article presents the Split-Match-Aggregate (SMA) algorithm, which automatically conflates sidewalk information from secondary geometric sidewalk data to existing street network data. The algorithm uses three parameters to determine geometric relationships between sidewalk and street segments: the distance between streets and sidewalk segments; the angle between sidewalk and street segments; and the difference between the lengths of matched sidewalk and street segments. The SMA algorithm was applied in urban King County, WA, to 13 jurisdictions’ secondary sidewalk geodata. Parameter values were determined based on agreement rates between results obtained from 72 pre-specified parameter combinations and those of a trained geographic information systems (GIS) analyst using a randomly selected 5% of the 79,928 street segments as a parameter-development sample. The algorithm performed best when the distances between sidewalk and street segments were 12 m or less, their angles were 25° or less, and the tolerance was set to 18 m, showing an excellent agreement rate of 96.5%. The SMA algorithm was applied to classify sidewalks in the entire study area and it successfully updated sidewalk coverage information on the existing regional-level street network data. The algorithm can be applied for conflating attributes between associated, but geometrically misaligned line data sets in GIS.     

Integrating Fire Behavior and Pedestrian Mobility Models to Assess Potential Risk to Humans from Wildfires Within the U.S.–Mexico Border Zone∗

Wildfires create a risk to pedestrians traveling through rural areas, because they might not be aware of the presence of a wildfire or its direction and rate of spread until is too late to successfully evacuate. In wildland areas of southern San Diego County, immigrants crossing the U.S.–Mexico border and border security agents are particularly at risk to wildfires. The objective of this study is to develop a framework of analysis and associated tools for examining the combined behavior of wildfires and pedestrian mobility to assess the potential threat of fire to pedestrians in wildland areas. Outputs from a geographic information system (GIS) overlay model for determining potentially dangerous fire zones, the Wildland–Urban Interface Evacuation (WUIVAC) model, and a model of pedestrian mobility in wildland areas were combined to generate wildfire risk to pedestrian maps. The key technical contributions of the study are the development and testing of the pedestrian mobility model and the framework and logic for integrating the results of three GIS-based models. The applied geography contribution is the testing of two scenarios of high risk from wildfires to pedestrians within the U.S.–Mexico border zone of San Diego County, California.

The study results show that the travel times calculated by the pedestrian mobility model appear to be realistic and are affected by the terrain and vegetation characteristics of a study site, whereas the evacuation trigger buffers (ETBs) from WUIVAC are mostly influenced by the wind speed and direction parameters of the FlamMap fire spread model. A moderate fire danger to pedestrians in the most remote wildland locations of the study area is determined. The scenario test results suggest that if a wildfire occurs within 2 km (extreme southwesterly winds) or 6 km (extreme northeasterly wind) of pedestrians in the worst case location within the San Diego border region they would likely not have a sufficient amount of time to reach a nearby safety zone.     

The brightening of Saturn’s F ring

Image photometry reveals that the F ring is approximately twice as bright during the Cassini tour as it was during the Voyager flybys of 1980 and 1981. It is also three times as wide and has a higher integrated optical depth. We have performed photometric measurements of more than 4800 images of Saturn’s F ring taken over a 5-year period with Cassini’s Narrow Angle Camera. We show that the ring is not optically thin in many observing geometries and apply a photometric model based on single-scattering in the presence of shadowing and obscuration, deriving a mean effective optical depth τ ≈ 0.033. Stellar occultation data from Voyager PPS and Cassini VIMS validate both the optical depth and the width measurements. In contrast to this decades-scale change, the baseline properties of the F ring have not changed significantly from 2004 to 2009. However, we have investigated one major, bright feature that appeared in the ring in late 2006. This transient feature increased the ring’s overall mean brightness by 84% and decayed with a half-life of 91 days.