Regeneration in Gap Models: Priority Issues for Studying Forest Responses to Climate Change

Recruitment algorithms in forest gap models are examined withparticular regard to their suitability for simulating forestecosystem responses to a changing climate. The traditional formulation of recruitment is found limiting in three areas. First, the aggregation of different regeneration stages (seedproduction, dispersal, storage, germination and seedling establishment) is likely to result in less accurate predictionsof responses as compared to treating each stage separately. Second, the related assumptions that seeds of all species are uniformly available and that environmental conditions arehomogeneous, are likely to cause overestimates of future speciesdiversity and forest migration rates. Third, interactions between herbivores (ungulates and insect pests) and forest vegetation are a big unknown with potentially serious impactsin many regions. Possible strategies for developing better gapmodel representations for the climate-sensitive aspects of eachof these key areas are discussed. A working example of a relatively new model that addresses some of these limitations is also presented for each case. We conclude that better modelsof regeneration processes are desirable for predicting effectsof climate change, but that it is presently impossible to determine what improvements can be expected without carrying outrigorous tests for each new formulation.     

Mean Flow and Turbulence Characteristics in an Urban Roughness Sublayer

In this study, a detailed model of an urban landscape has been re-constructed inthe wind tunnel and the flow structure inside and above the urban canopy has beeninvestigated. Vertical profiles of all three velocity components have been measuredwith a Laser-Doppler velocimeter, and an extensive analysis of the measured meanflow and turbulence profiles carried out. With respect to the flow structure inside thecanopy, two types of velocity profiles can be distinguished. Within street canyons,the mean wind velocities are almost zero or negative below roof level, while closeto intersections or open squares, significantly higher mean velocities are observed.In the latter case, the turbulent velocities inside the canopy also tend to be higherthan at street-canyon locations. For both types, turbulence kinetic energy and shearstress profiles show pronounced maxima in the flow region immediately above rooflevel.Based on the experimental data, a shear-stress parameterization is proposed, inwhich the velocity scale, u_s, and length scale, z_s, are based on the level and magnitude of the shear stress peak value. In order to account for a flow region inside the canopy with negligible momentum transport, a shear stress displacement height, d_s, is introduced. The proposed scaling and parameterization perform well for the measured profiles and shear-stress data published in the literature.The length scales derived from the shear-stress parameterization also allowdetermination of appropriate scales for the mean wind profile. The roughnesslength, z₀, and displacement height, d₀, can both be described as fractions of the distance, z_s - d_s, between the level of the shear-stress peak and the shear-stress displacement height. This result can be interpreted in such a way that the flow only feels the zone of depth z_s - d_s as the roughness layer. With respect to the lower part of the canopy (z < d_s) the flow behaves as a skimming flow. Correlations between the length scales z_s and d_s and morphometric parameters are discussed.The mean wind profiles above the urban structure follow a logarithmic windlaw. A combination of morphometric estimation methods for d₀ and z₀ with wind velocity measurements at a reference height, which allow calculation of the shear-stress velocity, u_*, appears to be the most reliable and easiest procedure to determine mean wind profile parameters. Inside the roughnesssublayer, a local scaling approach results in good agreement between measuredand predicted mean wind profiles.     

Seasonal prediction of African precipitation with ECHAM4–T42 ensemble simulations using a multivariate MOS re-calibration scheme

A 15 member ensemble of 20th century simulations using the ECHAM4–T42 atmospheric GCM is utilized to investigate the potential predictability of interannual variations of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Common boundary conditions are the global sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice extent. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) between observed and ensemble mean ECHAM4 precipitation over Africa is applied in order to identify the most predictable anomaly patterns of precipitation and the related SST anomalies. The CCA is then used to formulate a re-calibration approach similar to model output statistics (MOS) and to derive precipitation forecasts over Africa. Predictand is the climate research unit (CRU) gridded precipitation over Africa. As predictor we use observed SST anomalies, ensemble mean precipitation over Africa and a combined vector of mean sea level pressure, streamfunction and velocity potential at 850 hPa. The different forecast approaches are compared. Most skill for African precipitation forecasts is provided by tropical Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea) SST anomalies which mainly affect rainfall over the Guinean coast and Sahel. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences southern and East Africa, however with a lower skill. Indian Ocean SST anomalies, partly independent from ENSO, have an impact particularly on East Africa. As suggested by the large agreement between the simulated and observed precipitation, the ECHAM4 rainfall provides a skillful predictor for CRU precipitation over Africa. However, MOS re-calibration is needed in order to provide skillful forecasts. Forecasts using MOS re-calibrated model precipitation are at least as skillful as forecast using dynamical variables from the model or instantaneous SST. In many cases, MOS re-calibrated precipitation forecasts provide more skill. However, differences are not systematic for all regions and seasons, and often small.     

Impacts of Mixing Processes in Nocturnal Atmospheric Boundary Layer on Urban Ozone Concentrations

A number of open questions remain regarding the role of low-level jets (LLJs) and nocturnal mixing processes in the buildup of tropospheric ozone. The prevalence of southerly winds and LLJs in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during summer makes this region an ideal site for investigating the structure of the nocturnal boundary layer and its impacts on urban air quality. Ozone $(\mathrm{O}_{3})$ and nitrogen oxide concentrations measured at regulatory monitoring sites in the Oklahoma City (OKC) area and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model were analyzed to show how the nocturnal LLJ moderates boundary-layer mixing processes and air quality. Datasets collected during the Joint Urban 2003 campaign, which took place in July 2003 in OKC, provided detailed information about nocturnal boundary-layer structure and dynamics. In general, ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ time series show the expected behavior that urban ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ concentrations decrease at night due to nitrogen oxide titration reactions, but elevated ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ concentrations and secondary ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ peaks are also seen quite frequently after sunset. LLJs developed on most nights during the study period and were associated with strong vertical wind shear, which affected the boundary-layer stability and structure. Near-surface ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ concentrations are higher during less stable nights when active mixing persists throughout the night. The WRF/Chem model results agree well with the observations and further demonstrate the role of LLJs in moderating nocturnal mixing processes and air quality. The highest nocturnal ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ concentrations are linked to a strong LLJ that promotes both nocturnal long-range transport and persistent downward mixing of ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ from the residual layer to the surface.     

Spring water table depth mediates within-site variation of soil temperature in groundwater-fed mires

Groundwater-dependent ecosystems represent globally rare edaphic islands of scattered distribution, often forming areas of regionally unique environmental conditions. A stable groundwater supply is a key parameter defining their ecological specificity, promoting also soil thermal buffering. Still, a limited number of studies dealt with the importance of water temperature in mire ecosystems and virtually no data exist on within-site variation in the temperature buffer effect. Three temperature dataloggers, placed in patches potentially differing in groundwater supply, were installed in each of 19 Western Carpathian spring mire sites from May 2019 to July 2020. Spring source plots statistically differed in water temperature parameters from the plots located towards the spring mire margin, which did not significantly differ from one another. At the majority of sites, the temperature values changed gradually from spring source to mire margins, fitting the pattern expected in the groundwater temperature buffering scenario. Dataloggers placed in the spring sources were the most distinctive from the others in thermal buffering parameters in conditional principal component analysis. The difference between the spring source and its margin was on average 3.25 °C for 95th percentile of the recorded water temperature data points (i.e. warm extremes) and 1.91 °C for 5th percentile (i.e. cold extremes). This suggests that if the temperature at spring source area is considered, thermal buffering within a site may mitigate mainly warm extremes. Thus, our data may provide an important baseline for predictions of possibly upcoming changes in spring mire hydrology caused by climate change. Both warming and precipitation decrease can give rise to the loss or substantial reduction of buffering effect if the contrasting parameters now recorded at the central part shift to those found towards the margins of groundwater-fed areas.     

Survival of lichens and bacteria exposed to outer space conditions - Results of the Lithopanspermia experiments

In the space experiments Lithopanspermia, experimental support was provided to the likelihood of the lithopanspermia concept that considers a viable transport of microorganisms between the terrestrial planets by means of meteorites. The rock colonising lichens Rhizocarpon geographicum and Xanthoria elegans, the vagrant lichen Aspicilia fruticulosa, and endolithic and endoevaporitic communities of cyanobacteria and bacteria with their natural rock substrate were exposed to space for 10 days onboard the Biopan facility of the European Space Agency (ESA). Biopan was closed during launch and re-entry. In addition, in the Stone facility, one sample of R. geographicum on its natural granitic substrate was attached at the outer surface of the re-entry capsule close to the stagnation point, only protected by a thin cover of glass textolite. Post-flight analysis, which included determination of the photosynthetic activity, LIVE/DEAD staining, and germination capacity of the ascospores, demonstrated that all three lichen were quite resistant to outer space conditions, which include the full spectrum of solar extraterrestrial electromagnetic radiation or selected wavelength ranges. This high resistance of the lichens to space appears to be due to their symbiotic nature and protection by their upper pigmented layer, the cortex. In contrast, the rock- or halite-inhabiting bacteria were severely damaged by the same exposure. After atmospheric re-entry, the granite of the Stone sample was transformed into a glassy, nearly homogenous material, with several friction striae. None of the lichen cells survived this re-entry process. The data suggest that lichens are suitable candidates for testing the concept of lithopanspermia, because they are extremely resistant to the harsh environment of outer space. The more critical event is the atmospheric re-entry after being captured by a planet. Experiments simulating the re-entry process of a microbe-carrying meteoroid did not show any survivors.     

Environmental and climatic conditions at a potential Glacial refugial site of tree species near the Southern Alpine glaciers. New insights from multiproxy sedimentary studies at Lago della Costa (Euganean Hills, Northeastern Italy)

It has been hypothesized that refugia of thermophilous tree species were located in Northern Italy very close to the Alps, though, this hypothesis has yet to be tested thoroughly. In contrast to Central and Southern Italy with its relative wealth of data, only a few fragmentary records are currently available from Northern Italy for the last Glacial (Würm, Weichselian). Our new study site Lago della Costa lies adjacent to the catchment of the megafans of the Alpine forelands and the braided rivers of the Northeastern Po Plain that have so far inhibited the recovery of continuous Glacial and Late-Glacial records. We analyze pollen, plant macrofossils, charcoal and ostracods to reconstruct the vegetation, fire and lake history for the period 33,000–16,000 cal. BP. We compare our data with Glacial records from Southern Europe to discuss similarities and dissimilarities between these potential refugial areas. A comparison with independent paleoclimatic proxies allows to assess potential linkages between environmental and climatic variability. New macrofossil and pollen data at Lago della Costa unambiguously document the local persistence of boreal tree taxa such as Larix decidua and Betula tree species around the study site during the last Glacial. The regular occurrence of pollen of temperate trees in the organic lake sediments (fine-detritus calcareous gyttja) suggests that temperate taxa such as Corylus avellana, Quercus deciduous, Tilia, Ulmus, Fraxinus excelsior, Carpinus, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica, most likely survived the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at favorable sites in the Euganean Hills. The percentage values of temperate trees are comparable with those from Southern Europe (e.g. Monticchio in Southern Italy). We conclude that the Euganean Hills were one of the northernmost refugial areas of temperate taxa in Europe. However, the relative and absolute abundances of pollen of temperate trees are highly variable. Pollen-inferred declines of temperate tree communities (e.g. Quercetum mixtum) and low ostracod-inferred water levels at Lago della Costa correspond to the cold Heinrich events H-2 (LGM; 23,000–19,000 cal. BP) and H-3 (around 28,000 cal. BP), as recorded in the marine sediments of the North Atlantic. Similar patterns of significant temperate tree population collapses during cold Heinrich events are recorded at southern Mediterranean sites (e.g. Monticchio and the Alboran Sea). These findings suggest close linkages between Northern Atlantic and South-Central European climates during the past Glacial.     

European glacial relict snails and plants: environmental context of their modern refugial occurrence in southern Siberia

Knowledge of present‐day communities and ecosystems resembling those reconstructed from the fossil record can help improve our understanding of historical distribution patterns and species composition of past communities. Here, we use a unique data set of 570 plots explored for vascular plant and 315 for land‐snail assemblages located along a 650‐km‐long transect running across a steep climatic gradient in the Russian Altai Mountains and their foothills in southern Siberia. We analysed climatic and habitat requirements of modern populations for eight land‐snail and 16 vascular plant species that are considered characteristic of the full‐glacial environment of central Europe based on (i) fossil evidence from loess deposits (snails) or (ii) refugial patterns of their modern distributions (plants). The analysis yielded consistent predictions of the full‐glacial central European climate derived from both snail and plant populations. We found that the distribution of these 24 species was limited to the areas with mean annual temperature varying from ?6.7 to 3.4 °C (median ?2.5 °C) and with total annual precipitation varying from 137 to 593 mm (median 283 mm). In both groups there were species limited to areas with colder and drier macroclimates (e.g. snails Columella columella and Pupilla loessica, and plants Kobresia myosuroides and Krascheninnikovia ceratoides), whereas other species preferred areas with relatively warmer and/or moister macroclimates (e.g. snails Pupilla turcmenica and P. alpicola, and plants Artemisia laciniata and Carex capillaris). Analysis of climatic conditions also indicated that distributional shifts of the studied species during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition were closely related to their climatic tolerances. Our results suggest that the habitat requirements of southern Siberian populations can provide realistic insights into the reconstruction of Eurasian, especially central European, glacial environments. Data obtained from modern populations also highlight the importance of wet habitats as refugia in the generally dry full‐glacial landscape.