The 1895 Ljubljana earthquake: can the intensity data points discriminate which one of the nearby faults was the causative one?

The earthquake (Mw 6 from the SHEEC defined by the MDPs) that occurred in the central part of Slovenia on 14 April, 1895, affected a broad region, causing deaths, injuries, and destruction. This event was much studied but not fully explained; in particular, its causative source model is still debated. The aim of this work is to contribute to the identification of the seismogenic source of this destructive event, calculating peak ground velocity values through the use of different ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and computing a series of ground motion scenarios based on the result of an inversion work proposed by Juki? in 2009 and on various fault models in the surroundings of Ljubljana: Vi?, ?elimlje, Borovnica, Vodice, Ortnek, Mi?jedolski, and Dobrepolje faults. The synthetic seismograms, at the basis of our computations, are calculated using the multi-modal summation technique and a kinematic approach for extended sources, with a maximum peak ground velocity value of 1 Hz. The qualitative and quantitative comparison of these simulations with the macroseismic intensity database allows us to discriminate between various sources and configurations. The quantitative validation of the seismic source is done using ad hoc ground motion to intensity conversion equations (GMICEs), expressly calculated for this study. This study allows us to identify the most probable causative source model of this event, contributing to the improvement of the seismotectonic knowledge of this region. The candidate fault that has the lowest values of average differences between observed and calculated intensities and chi-squared is a strike slip fault with a toward-north rupture as the Ortnek fault.     

Statistical power of detecting trends in total suspended sediment loads to the Great Barrier Reef

The export of pollutant loads from coastal catchments is of primary interest to natural resource management. For example, Reef Plan, a joint initiative by the Australian Government and the Queensland Government, has indicated that a 20% reduction in sediment is required by 2020. There is an obvious need to consider our ability to detect any trend if we are to set realistic targets or to reliably identify changes to catchment loads. We investigate the number of years of monitoring aquatic pollutant loads necessary to detect trends. Instead of modelling the trend in the annual loads directly, given their strong relationship to flow, we consider trends through the reduction in concentration for a given flow. Our simulations show very low power (<40%) of detecting changes of 20% over time periods of several decades, indicating that the chances of detecting trends of reasonable magnitudes over these time frames are very small.     

Potentially mobile pools of phosphorus and silicon in sediment from the Bay of Brest: Interactions and implications for phosphorus dynamics

Competitive interactions between silicate and phosphate at ligand exchange sites in the sediment surface layer may increase the release of phosphorus (P) from the sediment into the water column. In this study, the role of silicon (Si) in the release of P from the sediment surface layer was studied in a marine estuarine environment, the Bay of Brest, with the aid of a sequential sediment fractionation procedure developed for P, and the addition of inorganic or diatom-bound Si to surface sediment samples in vitro. The potentially mobile pools of P in the surface sediment (loosely bound P + Fe/Al-bound-P) amounted to 5.0 μmol g⁻¹ dry sed., 42% of the total extractable and 33% of the total amount of P in the sediment, while the similarly extracted pools of Si were bigger (ca. 20 μmol g⁻¹ dry sed., 50% of the total extractable Si). Additions of inorganic Si increased the concentration of dissolved P in the sediment interstitial water in a bottle experiment, and the addition of both inorganic Si and cultivated diatoms to intact sediment cores increased the outward flux of dissolved P. Model calculations based on the regression equation from the bottle experiment and Si and P water column data showed that the sedimentation of spring diatoms could cause Si pulses to the sediment which would produce a P flux to the water column of ca. 44 μmol m⁻² d⁻¹. Field data from the bay show that in spring, decreases in P and Si and an increase in chl a due to diatom production are often followed by a small separate P peak which may be caused by Si-induced P fluxes from the sediment surface.     

Regeneration in Gap Models: Priority Issues for Studying Forest Responses to Climate Change

Recruitment algorithms in forest gap models are examined withparticular regard to their suitability for simulating forestecosystem responses to a changing climate. The traditional formulation of recruitment is found limiting in three areas. First, the aggregation of different regeneration stages (seedproduction, dispersal, storage, germination and seedling establishment) is likely to result in less accurate predictionsof responses as compared to treating each stage separately. Second, the related assumptions that seeds of all species are uniformly available and that environmental conditions arehomogeneous, are likely to cause overestimates of future speciesdiversity and forest migration rates. Third, interactions between herbivores (ungulates and insect pests) and forest vegetation are a big unknown with potentially serious impactsin many regions. Possible strategies for developing better gapmodel representations for the climate-sensitive aspects of eachof these key areas are discussed. A working example of a relatively new model that addresses some of these limitations is also presented for each case. We conclude that better modelsof regeneration processes are desirable for predicting effectsof climate change, but that it is presently impossible to determine what improvements can be expected without carrying outrigorous tests for each new formulation.     

Mean Flow and Turbulence Characteristics in an Urban Roughness Sublayer

In this study, a detailed model of an urban landscape has been re-constructed inthe wind tunnel and the flow structure inside and above the urban canopy has beeninvestigated. Vertical profiles of all three velocity components have been measuredwith a Laser-Doppler velocimeter, and an extensive analysis of the measured meanflow and turbulence profiles carried out. With respect to the flow structure inside thecanopy, two types of velocity profiles can be distinguished. Within street canyons,the mean wind velocities are almost zero or negative below roof level, while closeto intersections or open squares, significantly higher mean velocities are observed.In the latter case, the turbulent velocities inside the canopy also tend to be higherthan at street-canyon locations. For both types, turbulence kinetic energy and shearstress profiles show pronounced maxima in the flow region immediately above rooflevel.Based on the experimental data, a shear-stress parameterization is proposed, inwhich the velocity scale, u_s, and length scale, z_s, are based on the level and magnitude of the shear stress peak value. In order to account for a flow region inside the canopy with negligible momentum transport, a shear stress displacement height, d_s, is introduced. The proposed scaling and parameterization perform well for the measured profiles and shear-stress data published in the literature.The length scales derived from the shear-stress parameterization also allowdetermination of appropriate scales for the mean wind profile. The roughnesslength, z₀, and displacement height, d₀, can both be described as fractions of the distance, z_s - d_s, between the level of the shear-stress peak and the shear-stress displacement height. This result can be interpreted in such a way that the flow only feels the zone of depth z_s - d_s as the roughness layer. With respect to the lower part of the canopy (z < d_s) the flow behaves as a skimming flow. Correlations between the length scales z_s and d_s and morphometric parameters are discussed.The mean wind profiles above the urban structure follow a logarithmic windlaw. A combination of morphometric estimation methods for d₀ and z₀ with wind velocity measurements at a reference height, which allow calculation of the shear-stress velocity, u_*, appears to be the most reliable and easiest procedure to determine mean wind profile parameters. Inside the roughnesssublayer, a local scaling approach results in good agreement between measuredand predicted mean wind profiles.     

Seasonal prediction of African precipitation with ECHAM4–T42 ensemble simulations using a multivariate MOS re-calibration scheme

A 15 member ensemble of 20th century simulations using the ECHAM4–T42 atmospheric GCM is utilized to investigate the potential predictability of interannual variations of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Common boundary conditions are the global sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice extent. A canonical correlation analysis (CCA) between observed and ensemble mean ECHAM4 precipitation over Africa is applied in order to identify the most predictable anomaly patterns of precipitation and the related SST anomalies. The CCA is then used to formulate a re-calibration approach similar to model output statistics (MOS) and to derive precipitation forecasts over Africa. Predictand is the climate research unit (CRU) gridded precipitation over Africa. As predictor we use observed SST anomalies, ensemble mean precipitation over Africa and a combined vector of mean sea level pressure, streamfunction and velocity potential at 850 hPa. The different forecast approaches are compared. Most skill for African precipitation forecasts is provided by tropical Atlantic (Gulf of Guinea) SST anomalies which mainly affect rainfall over the Guinean coast and Sahel. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences southern and East Africa, however with a lower skill. Indian Ocean SST anomalies, partly independent from ENSO, have an impact particularly on East Africa. As suggested by the large agreement between the simulated and observed precipitation, the ECHAM4 rainfall provides a skillful predictor for CRU precipitation over Africa. However, MOS re-calibration is needed in order to provide skillful forecasts. Forecasts using MOS re-calibrated model precipitation are at least as skillful as forecast using dynamical variables from the model or instantaneous SST. In many cases, MOS re-calibrated precipitation forecasts provide more skill. However, differences are not systematic for all regions and seasons, and often small.     

Impacts of Mixing Processes in Nocturnal Atmospheric Boundary Layer on Urban Ozone Concentrations

A number of open questions remain regarding the role of low-level jets (LLJs) and nocturnal mixing processes in the buildup of tropospheric ozone. The prevalence of southerly winds and LLJs in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during summer makes this region an ideal site for investigating the structure of the nocturnal boundary layer and its impacts on urban air quality. Ozone $(\mathrm{O}_{3})$ and nitrogen oxide concentrations measured at regulatory monitoring sites in the Oklahoma City (OKC) area and simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) model were analyzed to show how the nocturnal LLJ moderates boundary-layer mixing processes and air quality. Datasets collected during the Joint Urban 2003 campaign, which took place in July 2003 in OKC, provided detailed information about nocturnal boundary-layer structure and dynamics. In general, ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ time series show the expected behavior that urban ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ concentrations decrease at night due to nitrogen oxide titration reactions, but elevated ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ concentrations and secondary ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ peaks are also seen quite frequently after sunset. LLJs developed on most nights during the study period and were associated with strong vertical wind shear, which affected the boundary-layer stability and structure. Near-surface ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ concentrations are higher during less stable nights when active mixing persists throughout the night. The WRF/Chem model results agree well with the observations and further demonstrate the role of LLJs in moderating nocturnal mixing processes and air quality. The highest nocturnal ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ concentrations are linked to a strong LLJ that promotes both nocturnal long-range transport and persistent downward mixing of ${\mathrm{O}_{3}}$ from the residual layer to the surface.     

Spring water table depth mediates within-site variation of soil temperature in groundwater-fed mires

Groundwater-dependent ecosystems represent globally rare edaphic islands of scattered distribution, often forming areas of regionally unique environmental conditions. A stable groundwater supply is a key parameter defining their ecological specificity, promoting also soil thermal buffering. Still, a limited number of studies dealt with the importance of water temperature in mire ecosystems and virtually no data exist on within-site variation in the temperature buffer effect. Three temperature dataloggers, placed in patches potentially differing in groundwater supply, were installed in each of 19 Western Carpathian spring mire sites from May 2019 to July 2020. Spring source plots statistically differed in water temperature parameters from the plots located towards the spring mire margin, which did not significantly differ from one another. At the majority of sites, the temperature values changed gradually from spring source to mire margins, fitting the pattern expected in the groundwater temperature buffering scenario. Dataloggers placed in the spring sources were the most distinctive from the others in thermal buffering parameters in conditional principal component analysis. The difference between the spring source and its margin was on average 3.25 °C for 95th percentile of the recorded water temperature data points (i.e. warm extremes) and 1.91 °C for 5th percentile (i.e. cold extremes). This suggests that if the temperature at spring source area is considered, thermal buffering within a site may mitigate mainly warm extremes. Thus, our data may provide an important baseline for predictions of possibly upcoming changes in spring mire hydrology caused by climate change. Both warming and precipitation decrease can give rise to the loss or substantial reduction of buffering effect if the contrasting parameters now recorded at the central part shift to those found towards the margins of groundwater-fed areas.     

Survival of lichens and bacteria exposed to outer space conditions - Results of the Lithopanspermia experiments

In the space experiments Lithopanspermia, experimental support was provided to the likelihood of the lithopanspermia concept that considers a viable transport of microorganisms between the terrestrial planets by means of meteorites. The rock colonising lichens Rhizocarpon geographicum and Xanthoria elegans, the vagrant lichen Aspicilia fruticulosa, and endolithic and endoevaporitic communities of cyanobacteria and bacteria with their natural rock substrate were exposed to space for 10 days onboard the Biopan facility of the European Space Agency (ESA). Biopan was closed during launch and re-entry. In addition, in the Stone facility, one sample of R. geographicum on its natural granitic substrate was attached at the outer surface of the re-entry capsule close to the stagnation point, only protected by a thin cover of glass textolite. Post-flight analysis, which included determination of the photosynthetic activity, LIVE/DEAD staining, and germination capacity of the ascospores, demonstrated that all three lichen were quite resistant to outer space conditions, which include the full spectrum of solar extraterrestrial electromagnetic radiation or selected wavelength ranges. This high resistance of the lichens to space appears to be due to their symbiotic nature and protection by their upper pigmented layer, the cortex. In contrast, the rock- or halite-inhabiting bacteria were severely damaged by the same exposure. After atmospheric re-entry, the granite of the Stone sample was transformed into a glassy, nearly homogenous material, with several friction striae. None of the lichen cells survived this re-entry process. The data suggest that lichens are suitable candidates for testing the concept of lithopanspermia, because they are extremely resistant to the harsh environment of outer space. The more critical event is the atmospheric re-entry after being captured by a planet. Experiments simulating the re-entry process of a microbe-carrying meteoroid did not show any survivors.