ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE *

Atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected to double by A.D. 2050, raising global temperatures 2 to 3°C. A model for climatic deviations is presented, based upon paleoclimatic experience 5,000 to 8,000 years ago, when midlatitude temperatures were 1.5 to 2.5°C higher. The economic prognosis includes a United States barely able to meet its own agricultural needs and a substantial overall reduction of world food supplies. The revolutionary implications for contemporary sociopolitical alignments suggest an urgent need for long-range planning and more, historically oriented research.     

Model of the geoelectrical structure of the mid- and lower mantle in the Europe–Asia region

The conductivity structure of the Earth's mantle was estimated using the induction method down to 2100  km depth for the Europe–Asia region. For this purpose, the responses obtained at seven geomagnetic observatories (IRT, KIV, MOS, NVS, HLP, WIT and NGK) were analysed, together with reliable published results for 11  yr variations. 1-D spherical modelling has shown that, beneath the mid-mantle conductive layer (600–800  km), the conductivity increases slowly from about 1  S  m⁻¹ at 1000  km depth to 10  S  m⁻¹ at 1900  km, while further down (1900–2100  km) this increase is faster. Published models of the lower mantle conductivity obtained using the secular, 30–60  yr variations were also considered, in order to estimate the conductivity at depths down to the core. The new regional model of the lower mantle conductivity does not contradict most modern geoelectrical sounding results. This model supports the idea that the mantle base, situated below 2100  km depth, has a very high conductivity.     

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN DENOMINATIONAL SWITCHING AMONG WHITE PROTESTANTS*

This study examines the hypothesis that the determinants of denominational switching vary regionally among white American Protestants. Data for the analysis are taken from the National Opinion Research Center's General Social Survey for 1974 through 1984. Using logistic regression, the analysis compares the determinants of switching among respondents residing in the nine Census regions of the U.S. Results reveal significant regional differences in the determinants of switching, especially in the effects of conversion, childhood affiliation and interdenominational marriage.     

An evolutionary algorithm for multicriteria path optimization problems

For many years researchers and decision makers (DMs) faced with multicriteria shortest path problems (MSPPs) have resorted to reductions to the classical shortest path problem (SPP) by means of weighted linear combinations of the criteria. Algorithmic and approximation schemes are available to solve MSPPs but these approaches often display complexities prohibitive to their implementation on real‐world applications. This paper describes the development of an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) approach to MSPPs on networks with multiple independent criteria. The EA approach is shown to sufficiently explore the underlying network space, generate large candidate path sets, and evolve high quality approximations to the optimal MSPP solution(s). Opportunities for early termination of the EA in time‐critical applications are also offered. Among the issues for further work is the integration of the EA as a tool within a GIS for path optimization.     

Hydrogeochemistry of two river main floodplain lakes,Hessia, FR Germany

Two lakes, Lake Gänseweiher (LGW) and Lake Fechenheimer Weiher (LFW) occupy groundwater filled abandoned gravel pits which serve as fishing grounds and are part of recreational areas, respectively.Both lakes are cut into a near-surface groundwater aquifer, which is located in the pleistocene River Main gravel terrace t₆. They are sealed at the base by miocene clays and above by overlying flood deposits of the River Main. The latter provide protection from pollutants derived from wet and dry deposition of atmospheric contaminants.Groundwater chemistry determines the pool of dissolved constituents in lake water. The temporal and spatial distribution patterns of chemical compounds in lake water are brought about by endo-biogenic processes, of which the indicators are nitrate-nitrogen and dissolved silica. The latter illustrates an instantaneous response to pulses of diatom blooms.Both lakes are eutrophic (polytrophic) according to the classification guidelines presented in literature.     

Growth and reproduction of the bivalve Spisula subtruncata (da Costa) in Dutch coastal waters

The bivalve Spisula subtruncata is usually abundant in shallow coastal waters along the Dutch coast. However, its biomass has been decreasing since 1995. In order to assess whether reproductive failure may be the cause of the observed decline over the last decades, the energy investment in reproduction of a population of S. subtruncata from central Dutch coastal waters was studied. The population studied consisted of individuals of up to four years old. Shell length reached maximum values of around 32 mm and individual total body, somatic and gonadal ash-free dry mass reached maximum values of about 278 mg AFDM, 252 mg AFDM and 76 mg AFDM, respectively. A clear seasonal cycle in somatic and gonadal mass was observed. Somatic and gonadal mass indices increased in early spring and reached maximum values during summer, followed by a decrease to minimum values at the beginning of the following year. Spawning was in June–July and settlement of spat seems to have occurred in July–August. Mean oocyte diameter was 57.43 ± 0.03 μm, corresponding to a volume of 98972 μm³. These results suggested that reproductive failure was not the cause of the current population decline. Most likely, unsuccessful settlement of spat and/or severe predation during the first months of life were responsible for the observed patterns.     

Phytoplankton biomass and size fractions in surface waters of the Australian sector of the southern ocean

We collected surface water along the 142nd E meridian from Tasmania to Antarctica in December 1999. We measured temperature, salinity and total chlorophyll a; additionally, we collected suspended particle size fractions and used fluorometric analysis to determine the quantity of chlorophyll a in each of four cell size classes: picoplankton (<3 μm), two nanoplankton fractions (3–10 μm and 10–20 μm) and microplankton (> 20 μm). Changes in temperature and salinity show that we crossed 6 water masses separated by 5 fronts. We found low abundance (<0.2 mg m⁻³) of chlorophyll in all size classes, with the exception of higher values near the continent (0.2 to 0.4 mg m⁻³). Lowest chlorophyll values (<0.1 mg m⁻³) were found in the Polar Frontal Zone (51° to 54°S). Microplankton made up the largest portion of total chlorophyll throughout most of the region. We conclude that biomass of all phytoplankton fractions, especially pico-and nanoplankton, was constrained by limiting factors, most probably iron, throughout the region and that ecosystem dynamics within a zone are not circumpolar but are regionalized within sectors.