Swimming upstream: addressing fossil fuel supply under the UNFCCC

Reducing fossil fuel supply is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement goal to keep warming ‘well below 2°C’, yet the Agreement is silent on the topic of fossil fuels. This article outlines reasons why it is important that Parties to the Agreement find ways to more explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC. It describes how countries aiming to keep fossil fuel supply in line with Paris goals could articulate and report their actions within the current architecture of the Agreement. It also outlines specific mechanisms of the Paris Agreement through which issues related to the curtailment of fossil fuel supply can be addressed. Mapping out a transition away from fossil fuels – and facilitating this transition under the auspices of the UNFCCC process – can enhance the ambition and effectiveness of national and international climate mitigation efforts.

Key policy insights

• The international commitment to limit global average temperature increases to ‘well below 2°C’ provides a strong rationale for Parties to the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC to pursue a phase-down in fossil fuel production, not just consumption.

• Several countries have already made commitments to address fossil fuel supply, by agreeing to phase down coal or oil exploration and production.

• Integrating these commitments into the UNFCCC process would link them to global climate goals, and ensure they form part of a broader global effort to transition away from fossil fuels.

• The Paris Agreement provides a number of new opportunities for Parties to address fossil fuel production.

     

The problem of “naturally”-occurring drought

Naturally-occurring drought is defined here to be drought arising from the nonlinear interactions which are an inherent part of the dynamics of the climatic system. As such it has no specific excitation mechanism, in contrast to forced drought where sea surface temperature anomalies are frequently cited as an important precursor. The essential difference between these two types of drought is that the former is very local and isolated spatially, whereas the latter is widespread and coherent. Observations for Australia are used to illustrate these points. Results are given for a 10-year general circulation model integration which clearly simulated naturally occurring drought and highlighted its unique characteristics. Multi-annual time series for specific geographical regions in the model show that no differences in monthly mean values of relative humidity or zonal and meridional fluxes of moisture were apparent for years with or without drought. More detailed analysis indicated that rather small differences exist in atmospheric temperatures and absolute humidities between drought and nondrought years which are important factors in determining the onset of precipitation in the model.Overall the analysis emphasises the subtlety of the processes involved. These processes, however, were able to produce completely different precipitation histories from one year to the next at a given point. The smallness of the changes involved in the atmospheric processes indicates that the nonlinearities were able to modulate conditions at a given point within an existing synoptic system only slightly, rather than initiate a new climatic regime in drought years. The problem of naturally-occurring drought, of course, is that it is intrinsically unpredictable.     

Tests of a robust eddy correlation system for sensible heat flux

Summary Sensible heat flux estimates from a simple, one-propeller eddy correlation system (OPEC) were compared with those from a sonic anemometer eddy correlation system (SEC). In accordance with similarity theory, the performance of the OPEC system improved with increasing height of the sensor above the surface. Flux totals from the two systems at sites with adequate fetch were in excellent agreement after frequency response corrections were applied. The propeller system appears suitable for long periods of unattended measurement. The sensible heat flux measurements can be combined with net radiation and soil heat flux measurements to estimate latent heat as a residual in the surface energy balance.With 6 Figures     

Investigation about the dependence of spectral diffuse-to-direct-beam irradiance ratio on atmospheric turbidity and solar zenith angle

Summary The modifications of the solar spectral diffuse and direct-beam irradiances as well as the diffuse-to-direct-beam ratio, E_dλ/E_bλ, as a function of the aerosol optical depth, AOD, and solar zenith angle, SZA, is investigated. The E_dλ/E_bλ ratios decrease rapidly with wavelength and exponential curves in the form E_dλ/E_bλ = aλ^−b can be fitted with a great accuracy. These curves are strongly modified by the solar spectrum distribution, which is affected by the aerosol loading, aerosol optical properties and SZA. The spectral dependence of the above E_dλ/E_bλ ratios in logarithmic coordinates does not yield a straight line, while a significant departure from the linearity is revealed. The reasons for this departure are investigated in detail and it is established that the aerosol physical properties such as single scattering albedo and size distribution along with the effect of SZA are responsible. These parameters strongly affect the scattering processes in the atmosphere and as a consequence the diffuse spectral distribution. The E_dλ/E_bλ ratio, which is an indicator of the atmospheric transmittance (King, 1979), exhibits a strong wavelength and aerosol-loading dependence. The observed differences between turbid and clear atmospheres constitute a manifestation of contrasting air properties and influence solar irradiance spectra. The present work aims at investigating the effect of atmospheric turbidity and SZA on the E_dλ/E_bλ ratio. For this reason, two distinct cases are examined: one having different atmospheric turbidity conditions but same SZA and a second having different SZAs and same atmospheric turbidity levels.     

Countergradient Fluxes of Conserved Variables in the Clear convective and Stratocumulus-topped Boundary Layer: The role of the Entrainment Flux

Large-eddy simulations of a clear convective boundary layer (CBL)and a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer are studied. Bottom-upand a top-down scalars were included in the simulations, and theprinciple of linear superposition of variables was applied toreconstruct the fields of any arbitrary conserved variable.This approach allows a systematic analysis of countergradient fluxesas a function of the flux ratio, which is defined as the ratio betweenthe entrainment flux and the surface flux of the conserved quantity.In general, the turbulent flux of an arbitrary conserved quantityis counter to the mean vertical gradient if the heights where thevertical flux and the mean vertical gradient change sign do notcoincide. The regime where the flux is countergradient is thereforebounded by the so-called zero-flux and zero-gradient heights. Becausethe vertical flux changes sign only if the entrainment flux has anopposite sign to the surface flux, countergradient fluxes arepredominantly found for negative flux ratios. In the CBL the fluxratio for the virtual potential temperature is, to a good approximation,constant, and equal to -0.2. Only if the moisture contribution to thevirtual potential temperature is negligibly small will the flux ratio forthe potential temperature be equal to this value. Otherwise, theflux ratio for the potential temperature can have any arbitrary(negative) value, and, as a consequence, the fluxes for thepotential temperature and the virtual potential temperature willbe countergradient at different heights. As a practical application ofthe results, vertical profiles of the countergradient correction termfor different entrainment-to-surface-flux ratios are discussed.     

Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model

The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.     

A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.     

Evaluation of turbulent fluxes over Maitri,Antarctica

Turbulent fluxes have been evaluated for clear sunny days over the Indian Antarctic station, Maitri, using the basic meteorological data recorded at four levels of a 28 m tower. The data are supplemented with radiation data. The surface layer over Maitri remains thermally stratified during the hours of minimum solar insolation, the so-called nighttime period. The surface winds during this period are generally very strong resulting in high momentum fluxes. In particular, for high winds (>12 m s^–1), the temperature gradient is found to be less positive than for moderate winds (4 to 7 m s^–1). Solar insolation provided the daytime heating necessary for the diurnal variation of atmospheric stability, and hence, for the turbulent fluxes. Thus, on clear days daytime conditions are marked by upward transport of heat with reduced momentum flux, while stable nighttime conditions are marked by a downward heat flux with increased momentum fluxes.     

Modelling Korean extreme rainfall using a Kappa distribution and maximum likelihood estimate

Summary Attempts to use the 4-parameter Kappa distribution (K4D) with the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) on the summer extreme daily rainfall data at 61 gauging stations over South Korea have been made to obtain reliable quantile estimates for several return periods. A numerical algorithm for searching MLE of K4D by minimizing the negative log-likelihood function with penalty method has been described. The isopluvial maps of estimated design values corresponding to selected return periods have been presented. The highest return values are centered at sites in the south-western part of the Korean peninsula. The distribution of return values for annual maxima of 2-day precipitation (AMP2) is more similar to the climatological features of annual total precipitation of Korea than that of annual maxima of daily precipitation (AMP1). Our results of return values delineate well the horizontal patterns of the heavy precipitation over the Korean peninsula. Received January 15, 2001 Revised October 8, 2001