SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

Particulate organic matter in the coastal and estuarine waters of Goa and its relationship with phytoplankton production

In the coastal and estuarine waters of Goa, particulate organic carbon (POC) varied from 0.52 to 2.51 mg l^?1 and from 0.28 to 5.24 mg l^?1 and particulate phosphorus (PP) varied from 0.71 to 5.18 μg l^?1 and from 0.78 to 20.34 μg l^?1, respectively. The mean values of chlorophyll and primary productivity were 1.94 mg m^?3 and 938.1 mg C m^?2 day^?1 in the coastal waters and 4.3 mg m^?3 and 636.5 mg C m^?1 day^?1 in the estuarine waters, respectively.$\text{POC}\text{chl}$ ratios were low in June and October even when POC values were quite high. The POC in surface waters was linearly correlated with the chlorophyll content. Also PP increased when chlorophyll and primary productivity remained high. The results suggest that the phytoplankton was sharply increasing and contributed to POC and PP content. The percentage of detritus calculated from the intercept values of chlorophyll on POC varied from 46 to 76% depending on season. Results indicate that the major portion of POC and PP during postmonsoon (October–January) is derived from phytoplankton production while the allochthonous matter predominate during monsoon (June–September).     

The FAST/SKA site selection in Guizhou province

Many karst depressions with diameters of 300 m to 500 m, suitable for constructing Arecibo-style radio telescopes, were identified in the south of Guizhou Province by Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies together with field investigations. Fundamental topography and landform databases were established for 391candidate depressions, and using GIS the3-dimensional images of depressions, at a scale of 1:10000, were then simulated to fit a spherical antenna. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Fundamental parameters and new variables of the galactic open cluster NGC 7128

CCD photometry in Johnson UBV and Strömgren uvby systems and medium-resolution spectroscopy of the galactic open cluster NGC 7128 are presented. Spectral types of the brightest 12 stars in the cluster field were determined based on equivalent widths of the H α and the He  i 6678-Å line. The spectroscopic observations also revealed two obvious and one probable Be-type stars showing H α emission. The analysis of the photometric diagrams gave a colour excess of E ( B − V )=1.03±0.06 mag, a distance modulus DM =13.0±0.2 mag and an age above 10 Myr. Time-resolved photometric observations obtained on one night resulted in the detection of short time-scale light variations of seven new and three already known variable stars in the cluster field.     

An Early Investigation Of The Striated Tail Of Comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1)

The Sekanina-Farrell particle fragmentation model for the striated tails of dust comets is successfully applied to two images of comet Hale-Bopp to study the motions of 12 striae in a time span of March 12–15, 1997. There is evidence for recurring outbursts with a periodicity of 11^h21^m, consistent with results based on analysis of dust jets. The ejecta in all the striae appear to have been released from one source on the nucleus between the end of January and the second half of February 1997, some 60 to 40 days before perihelion. The parent particles were subjected to a radiation pressure acceleration of β_p ≃ 0.55 and their fragmentation lifetimes in 11 of the 12 striae were practically constant and equal to 13–15 days, when normalized to 1 AU from the Sun. Brief analysis of Watanabe et al.'s measurements of striae on their images from March 5–9, 1997 shows even shorter fragmentation lifetimes for the parent particles, mostly about 7–11 days at1 AU. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Linear Dependence between the Magnitude and the Logarithm of the Length of the Time the Quasars OJ287 and 3C345 Stay below this Magnitude

We have studied the optical historical light curves of two Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs): OJ287 and 3C345. We find a linear dependence between the magnitude and the logarithm of the length of the time the objects stay below this magnitude. The relation may originate from a fractal structure of the light curve. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

High-temperature geothermal reservoir possibilities in Hungary

Theoretical studies have shown the possibility of high-temperature ('high enthalpy') geothermal reservoirs in the pre-Tertiary rocks at 4–5 km depth range within the Pannonian Basin. This expectation was proven by the hotwater/steam blowout of Fábiánsebestyén-4 borehole (16.12.85–31.1.86). Exploration efforts carried out during 1987–88 in the broad vicinity of the borehole proved that reservoirs of this type can be found with the combination of seismic reflection, silica-thermometry and magnetotelluric sounding methods. Deliberate prospection should be continued in all suitable areas within the basin, since high enthalpy reservoirs promise profitable operation of geothermal power stations.     

Remarks on dynamical ellipticity at the Earth's

In this paper, two factors — the redistribution of the density and the variation in the angular velocity of the Earth rotation, that affect the adopted value of the flattening for equidensity surface within the Earth, are discussed. The computational results show that the contribution of the redistribution of the density in the Earth interior (especially in the core) on the change of the flattening at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) is marginal, and that the calculated value of the flattening at the CMB can be in good agreement with the VLBI observed value so long as the fact that the angular velocity of the Earth rotation has undergone the tidal evolution is taken into account. As a result, this paper presents a set of recommended values of the dynamical parameters of the Earth (see Table III) for computing Earth's forced nutation series.     

Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867