An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical...     

First recorded eruption of Mount Belinda volcano (Montagu Island), South Sandwich Islands

The MODVOLC satellite monitoring system has revealed the first recorded eruption of Mount Belinda volcano, on Montagu Island in the remote South Sandwich Islands. Here we present some initial qualitative observations gleaned from a collection of satellite imagery covering the eruption, including MODIS, Landsat 7 ETM+, ASTER, and RADARSAT-1 data. MODVOLC thermal alerts indicate that the eruption started sometime between 12 September and 20 October 2001, with low-intensity subaerial explosive activity from the islands summit peak, Mount Belinda. By January 2002 a small lava flow had been emplaced near the summit, and activity subsequently increased to some of the highest observed levels in August 2002. Observations from passing ships in February and March 2003 provided the first visual confirmation of the eruption. ASTER images obtained in August 2003 show that the eruption at Mount Belinda entered a new phase around this time, with fresh lava effusion into the surrounding icefield. MODIS radiance trends also suggest that the overall activity level increased significantly after July 2003. Thermal anomalies continued to be observed in MODIS imagery in early 2004, indicating a prolonged low-intensity eruption and the likely establishment of a persistent summit lava lake, similar to that observed on neighboring Saunders Island in 2001. Our new observations also indicate that lava lake activity continues on Saunders Island.Editorial responsibility: J. Gilbert     

Conversion of time-varying Stokes coefficients into mass anomalies at the Earth’s surface considering the Earth’s oblateness

Time-varying Stokes coefficients estimated from GRACE satellite data are routinely converted into mass anomalies at the Earth’s surface with the expression proposed for that purpose by Wahr et al. (J Geophys Res 103(B12):30,205–30,229, 1998). However, the results obtained with it represent mass transport at the spherical surface of 6378 km radius. We show that the accuracy of such conversion may be insufficient, especially if the target area is located in a polar region and the signal-to-noise ratio is high. For instance, the peak values of mean linear trends in 2003–2015 estimated over Greenland and Amundsen Sea embayment of West Antarctica may be underestimated in this way by about 15%. As a solution, we propose an updated expression for the conversion of Stokes coefficients into mass anomalies. This expression is based on the assumptions that: (i) mass transport takes place at the reference ellipsoid and (ii) at each point of interest, the ellipsoidal surface is approximated by the sphere with a radius equal to the current radial distance from the Earth’s center (“locally spherical approximation”). The updated expression is nearly as simple as the traditionally used one but reduces the inaccuracies of the conversion procedure by an order of magnitude. In addition, we remind the reader that the conversion expressions are defined in spherical (geocentric) coordinates. We demonstrate that the difference between mass anomalies computed in spherical and ellipsoidal (geodetic) coordinates may not be negligible, so that a conversion of geodetic colatitudes into geocentric ones should not be omitted.     

Paleolimnology of a freshwater estuary to inform Area of Concern nutrient delisting efforts

The St. Louis River Estuary (SLRE), a freshwater estuary bordering Duluth, Minnesota, Superior, Wisconsin, and the most western point of Lake Superior (46.74°, ? 92.13°), has a long history of human development since Euro-American settlement ~ 200 years ago. Due to degradation from logging, hydrologic modification, industrial practices, and untreated sewage, the SLRE was designated an Area of Concern in 1987. Action has been taken to restore water quality including the installation of the Western Lake Superior Sanitary District in 1978 to help remove beneficial use impairments. A better understanding of historical impacts and remediation is necessary to help document progress and knowledge gaps related to water quality, so a paleolimnological study of the SLRE was initiated. Various paleolimnological indicators (pigments, diatom communities, and diatom-inferred phosphorus) were analyzed from six cores taken throughout the SLRE and another from western Lake Superior. Reductions in eutrophic diatom taxa such as Cyclotella meneghiniana and Stephanodiscus after 1970 in certain cores suggest an improvement in water quality over the last 40 years. However, in cores taken from estuarine bay environments, persistence of eutrophic taxa such as Cyclostephanos dubius and Stephanodiscus binderanus indicate ongoing nutrient problems. Sedimentary pigments also indicate cyanobacteria increases in bays over the last two decades. Diatom model-inferred phosphorus and contemporary monitoring data suggest some of the problems associated with excess nutrient loads have been remediated, but modern conditions (internal phosphorus loading, changing climate) may be contributing to ongoing water quality impairments in some locations. The integrated record of biological, chemical, and physical indicators preserved in the sediments will aid state and federal agencies in determining where to target their resources.     

Spectroscopic and bond-topological investigation of interstitial volatiles in beryl from Slovakia

Nine beryl samples from Western Carpathians, Slovakia, were investigated by infrared and Raman spectroscopy and differential thermal analysis. Two types of water H₂O I and H₂O II were detected. Infrared spectroscopy proved the presence of water type I and II in the presence of alkali cations with several bands: (1) symmetric stretching vibration—ν₁; (2) antisymmetric stretching mode—ν₃; (3) bending vibration—ν₂. The presence of singly and doubly coordinated type II water (IIs and IId) was confirmed by single-crystal IR spectroscopy. From Raman spectra a band at 3606 cm^?1 was assigned to ν₁ of water type I and the range of 3597–3600 cm^?1 to water type II. The presence of doubly coordinating water indicates a relatively highly hydrated environment with the presence of alkali ions including Na as the dominant cation coordinated by H₂O II. CO₂ bands were detected only by single-crystal IR spectroscopy. Thermal analysis proved total water loss in the range of 1.4–2.0 wt% and three main dehydration events. Based on the study of bond-topological arrangements two molecules of H₂O IId are each bound with two H···O1 bonds and one Na–O_W bond with an angular distortion, and by releasing one H₂O molecule more stable H₂O IIs is produced. The H₂O I molecule is bound only by two equivalent hydrogen bonds. The H₂O IIs molecule with a Na–O_W bond strength of 0.28 vu and two H···O1 bonds of 0.14 vu without any forced angular distortion is the most stable of all.     

Stress indications in the Bohemian Massif: Reinterpretation of borehole televiewer data

Summary This paper presents the first results of stress determinations in the Bohemian Massif utilizing televiewer data from deeper boreholes. The televiewer survey was originally carried out by Geological Survey Ostrava for the purpose of studying fractures and bedding in coal basins to depths of 2 km. A reinterpretation of the amplitude logs reveal a large number of stress-induced borehole elongations (breakouts) which occur in a direction perpendicular to the maximum horizontal principal stress (S_H). The breakout analysis in the Upper Silesian, Meno and Kladno Basins indicates a dominant NW-SE direction of S_H which is consistent with the pattern of stress orientation in Western Europe. The NE-SW trend observed in the Plze Basin is less reliable. A model for stress magnitude determinations is formulated as a linear programming problem. If the a priori information on rock strength properties is limited, it reduces to explicit formulas for stress regime estimates. The model is applied to data from the Upper Silesian Basin for which a compressional stress regime is derived.     

Replication of a terrain stability mapping using an Artificial Neural Network

Subjective geomorphic mapping is a method commonly used for landslide hazard zonation. This method relies heavily on the skills and experience of the mapper, and therefore, its major drawbacks are the high costs and lack of consistency between products generated by different terrain mappers. In this study a method for cost-effective and consistent replication of subjective geomorphic mappings is demonstrated, by using a type of Artificial Neural Network named Learning Vector Quantization. This paper presents a study conducted in the Canadian province of British Columbia employing a high-quality data set. By utilizing Learning Vector Quantization, stable and unstable terrains were delineated with a similarity of approximately 91%, compared to the mapping produced by terrain specialists. Also, in this process, slope, elevation, aspect, and existing geomorphic processes were identified as the terrain attributes that contributed most to the quality of the mapping.     

Testing global geopotential models through comparison of a local quasi-geoid model with GPS/leveling data

The satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) provide accurate data that are routinely inverted into spherical harmonic coefficients of the geopotential forming a global geopotential model (GGM). Mean square errors of these coefficients, in some cases even entire covariance matrices, are included in the GGM. Due to estimation procedures with a large redundancy and insufficiently propagated observation errors, they often do not represent the actual accuracy of the harmonic coefficients, thus also gravity field parameters synthesized from the respective GGM. Since in most cases standard methods validating the GGMs reached their limits, new procedures and independent data are being currently sought. This article discusses an alternative validation procedure based on comparison of the GGMs with independent data represented by a set of GPS/leveling stations. Due to a different spectral content of the height anomalies synthesized from the GGMs and of those derived by combination of GPS-based ellipsoidal and leveled normal heights, the GGM-based low frequency height anomaly is enhanced for a high frequency component computed from local ground gravity and elevation data. The methodology is applied on a set of selected points of the European Vertical Reference Network and Czech trigonometric stations. In accordance with similar tests based on entirely independent data of cross-over altimetry, obtained results seem to indicate low-frequency deficiencies in the current GGMs, namely in those estimated from data of single-satellite missions.     

2005年国家自然科学基金批准项目一览表(地球科学部分)

~~2005年国家自然科学基金批准项目一览表(地球科学部分)~~     

Long-term variability in the hydrochemical regime of the Manych-Chograi hydrological system

Data collected from the scientific literature and field studies carried out by the specialists from the Azov Branch of the Murmansk Institute of Marine Biology and from the Southern Scientific Center in July and August of 2004 are used to confirm the further salinization of the Manych-Gudilo Lake. The aforesaid salinization was accompanied by a change in the water state index, caused by an increase in the salinity of inflowing water, which determines the water-and-salt budget of the lake.