Analyzing the spatial interactions between rainfall levels and flooding prediction in São Paulo

Rainfall is one of the primary triggers for many geological and hydrological natural disasters. While the geological events are related to mass movements in land collapse due to waterlogging, the hydrological ones are usually assigned to runoff or flooding. Studies in the literature propose predicting mass movement events as a function of accumulated rainfall levels recorded at distinct periods. According to these approaches, a two-dimensional rainfall levels feature space is segmented into the occurrence and non-occurrence decision regions by an empirical critical curve (CC). Although this scheme may easily be extended to other purposes and applications, studies in the literature need to discuss its use for flooding prediction. In light of this motivation, the present study is unfolded in (1) verifying that defining CCs in the rainfall levels feature space is a practical approach for flooding prediction and (2) analyzing how geospatial components interact with rainfall levels and flooding prediction. A database containing the rainfall levels recorded for flooding and non-flooding events in São Paulo city, Brazil, regarding the period 2015–2016, was considered in this study. The results indicate good accuracy for flooding prediction using only partial rain, which can be improved by adding physical characteristics of the flooding locations, demonstrating a direct correlation with spatial interactions, and rainfall levels.     

Vertical deformation partitioning across a collapsing large and hot orogen

Featuring 3 000-km-long large and hot orogen, the Mantiqueira Province provides a rare opportunity to study the process of gravitational collapse at mid to deep crustal levels. Distinct but contemporary (~500 Ma) post-collisional intrusions show structures and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) fabrics related to their emplacements, recording different flow patterns. In southern deep-seated intrusions, ellipsoidal-shaped roots with gabbroic-to-hybrid cores surrounded by granitic rocks show concentric patterns of AMS fabrics that cut across the NE-trending regional foliation. In contrast, northern intrusions, exposed as the upper sections of batholith-size bodies of coarse-grained granite emplaced at the shallow to mid-crust, show general NS-trending magnetic fabrics roughly parallel to strike of the orogen and the regional foliation of host rocks. These contrasting magnetic patterns from shallow to deeper crust suggest vertical magma migration from the overthickened orogenic core to be emplaced across its thinner stretched flanks during the gravitational collapse of the orogenic edifice.     

Paleoenvironmental dynamics in central-eastern Brazil during the last 23 000 years: tropical peatland record in the Cerrado biome

The Cerrado biome is the second largest in Brazil, but the evolution of the Cerrado during the late Quaternary is not yet fully known. This study identifies paleoenvironmental changes during the last 23 000 years, based on a tropical mountain peatland record, in the Serra do Espinhaço Meridional in central-eastern Brazil. A multi-proxy approach was used that involved palynological analysis, stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N), geochemistry, radiocarbon dating and multivariate statistics derived from a peatland core from Rio Preto (Minas Gerais state). The study reveals a very humid and cold climate during the late Pleistocene, with an increase in temperature and decrease in humidity at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. During this period there was strong instability in the landscape (episodes of erosion). At the beginning of the Holocene there was a reduction in humidity with greater landscape stability. The current sub-humid climatic conditions seem to have been established in the mid-/late Holocene, with periods of landscape instability. Our findings agree with other Cerrado records that contradict previously established hypotheses, such as the Amazonian Refuge and the Pleistocene Arc.