Strict positive definiteness under axial symmetry on the sphere

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Axial symmetry for covariance functions defined over spheres has been a very popular assumption for climate, atmospheric, and environmental...     

Integrated Radiolaria,benthic foraminifera and conodont biochronology of the pelagic Permian blocks/tectonic slices and geochemistry of associated volcanic rocks from the Mersin Mélange,southern Turkey: Implications for the Permian evolution of the northern Neotethys

Blocks and tectonic slices within the Mersin Mélange (southern Turkey), which are of Northern Neotethyan origin (Izmir–Ankara–Erzincan Ocean (IAE)), were studied in detail by using radiolarian, conodont, and foraminiferal assemblages on six different stratigraphic sections with well‐preserved Permian succesions. The basal part of the Permian sequence, composed of alternating chert and mudstone with basic volcanics, is assigned to the late Asselian (Early Permian) based on radiolarians. The next basaltic interval in the sequence is dated as Kungurian. The highly alkaline basic volcanics in the sequence are extremely enriched, similar to kimberlitic/lamprophyric magmas generated at continental intraplate settings. Trace element systematics suggest that these lavas were generated in a continental margin involving a metasomatized subcontinental lithospheric mantle source (SCLM). The middle part of the Permian sequences, dated by benthic foraminifera and conodont assemblages, includes detrital limestones with chert interlayers and neptunian dykes of middle Wordian to earliest Wuchiapingian age. Higher in the sequence, detrital limestones are overlain by alternating chert and mudstone with intermittent microbrecciated beds of early Wuchiapingian to middle Changhsingian (Late Permian) age based on the radiolarians. A large negative shift at the base of the Lopingian at the upper part of section is correlated to negative shifts at the Guadalupian/Lopingian boundary associated with the end‐Guadalupian mass extinction event. All these findings indicate that a continental rift system associated with a possible mantle plume existed during the late Early to Late Permian period. This event was responsible for the rupturing of the northern Gondwanan margin related to the opening of the IAE Ocean. When the deep basinal features of the Early Permian volcano‐sedimentary sequence are considered, the proto IAE oceanic crust formed possibly before the end of the Permian. This, in turn, suggests that the opening of the IAE Ocean dates back to as early as the Permian.     

Changes in Habitat Availability for Multiple Life Stages of Diamondback Terrapins (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Malaclemys terrapin</Emphasis>) in Chesapeake Bay in Response to Sea Level Rise

Global sea level rise (SLR) will significantly alter coastal landscapes through inundation and erosion of low-lying areas. Animals that display area fidelity and rely on fringing coastal habitats during multiple life stages, such as diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin Schoepff 1793), are likely to be particularly vulnerable to SLR-induced changes. We used a combination of empirical nest survey data and results from a regional SLR model to explore the long-term availability of known nesting locations and the modeled availability of fringing coastal habitats under multiple SLR scenarios for diamondback terrapin in the MD portion of Chesapeake Bay and the MD coastal bays. All SLR scenarios projected the rapid inundation of historically used nesting locations of diamondback terrapins with 25%–55% loss within the next 10 years and over 80% loss by the end of the century. Model trajectories of habitat losses or gains depended on habitat type and location. A key foraging habitat, brackish marsh, was projected to decline 6%–94%, with projections varying spatially and among scenarios. Despite predicted losses of extant beach habitats, future gains in beach habitat due to erosion and overwash were projected to reach 40%–600%. These results demonstrate the potential vulnerability of diamondback terrapins to SLR in Chesapeake Bay and underscore the possibility of compounding negative effects of SLR on animals whose habitat requirements differ among life stages. More broadly, this study highlights the vulnerability of species dependent on fringing coastal habitats and emphasizes the need for a long-term perspective for coastal development in the face of SLR.     

Exploiting historical rainfall and landslide data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds

Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation. In this context, the aim of this paper is exploiting historical landslide and rainfall data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy. The hourly rainfall events that caused landslides occurred in the twentieth century were specifically identified and reconstructed. A procedure was proposed to automatically convert rain guages charts recorded on paper tape into digital format and then to provide the cumulative rainfall hyetograph in digital format. This procedure is based on a segmentation followed by signal recognition techniques which allow to digitalize and to recognize the hyetograph automatically. The role of rainfall prior to the landslide events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall occurred 5, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. Finally, cumulated rainfall duration thresholds for different exceedance probability levels were determined. The obtained thresholds resulted in agreement with the regional curves proposed by other authors for the same area; antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides.     

Large Earthquakes at the Ibero-Maghrebian Region: Basis for an EEWS

Large earthquakes (M_w > 6, I_max > VIII) occur at the Ibero-Maghrebian region, extending from a point (12ºW) southwest of Cape St. Vincent to Tunisia, with different characteristics depending on their location, which cause considerable damage and casualties. Seismic activity at this region is associated with the boundary between the lithospheric plates of Eurasia and Africa, which extends from the Azores Islands to Tunisia. The boundary at Cape St. Vincent, which has a clear oceanic nature in the westernmost part, experiences a transition from an oceanic to a continental boundary, with the interaction of the southern border of the Iberian Peninsula, the northern border of Africa, and the Alboran basin between them, corresponding to a wide area of deformation. Further to the east, the plate boundary recovers its oceanic nature following the northern coast of Algeria and Tunisia. The region has been divided into four zones with different seismic characteristics. From west to east, large earthquake occurrence, focal depth, total seismic moment tensor, and average seismic slip velocities for each zone along the region show the differences in seismic release of deformation. This must be taken into account in developing an EEWS for the region.     

Nonlinear response estimates of RC frames using linear analysis of SDOF systems

An approximate‐simple method for nonlinear response estimates of reinforced concrete frames subjected to near‐field and far‐field records is presented in this paper. The approximate method is based on equivalent single‐degree‐of‐freedom and linear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom models. In this procedure, the nonlinear maximum roof displacement is estimated using an effective period factor and elastic response spectrum with an equivalent damping. The effective period factor was proposed for far‐field and near‐field ground motion records. For regions of high seismicity, the maximum roof displacement can be estimated by applying an effective period factor of 2.3 and 2.1 for near‐field and far‐field records, respectively, and 9% damped displacement response spectrum. For regions of moderate seismicity, a lower effective period factor of 1.9 and 1.8, for near‐field and far‐field records, respectively, can be applied to estimate the maximum roof displacement. A relationship between linear and nonlinear response of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom systems was also proposed to obtain estimates of the maximum inter‐story drift of nonlinear responding reinforced concrete frames. In addition, the effects of number of ground motion records used in the analyses on the scatters of results were investigated. The required number of ground motions to produce a reliable response was proposed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the accuracy of atmospheric forcing for extra-tropical storm surge prediction

The ability of the SMARA storm surge numerical prediction system to reproduce local effects in estuarine and coastal winds was recently improved by considering one-way coupling of the air–sea momentum exchange through the wave stress, and best forecasting practices for downscaling. The inclusion of long period atmospheric pressure forcing in tide and tide/surge calculations corrected a systematic error in the surge, produced by the South Atlantic Ocean quasi-stationary pressure patterns. The maximum forecast range for the storm surge at Buenos Aires provided by the real-time use of water level observations is approximately 12 h. The best available water level prediction is the 6-h forecast (nowcast) based on the closest water level observations. The 24-h forecast from the numerical models slightly improves this nowcast. Although the numerical forecast accuracy degrades after the first 48 h, the improvement to the full range observation-based prediction is maintained at the inner Río de la Plata area and extends to the first 3 days at the intermediate navigation channels.     

Macrobenthic community for assessment of estuarine health in tropical areas (Northeast, Brazil): Review of macrofauna classification in ecological groups and application of AZTI Marine Biotic Index

The aim of the present study was to investigate the ecological quality of tropical estuaries on the northeastern coast of Brazil using the AMBI. Macrofauna classification based on ecological groups was reviewed using the Indicator Value (IndVal) coefficient. The results indicate that the ecosystems exhibit some level of disturbance. Most sites are situated between slightly-moderately disturbed boundaries due to the higher proportion of Nematoda (assigned here as Ecological Group I) and of Oligochaeta and Tubificidae (both classified as Ecological Group V). The AMBI proved efficient in evaluating environmental status, although the applicability of this index requires adjustments regarding some species in ecological groups. The present study also highlights the merits of the IndVal method for examining the assignments of species/taxa to an ecological group and demonstrates the validity of this coefficient is an assessment tool. Moreover, the complementary use of different methods is recommended for the assessment of ecosystem quality.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of Low-Latitude GPS Amplitude Scintillation Measured During Solar Maximum Conditions and Implications for Receiver Performance

Ionospheric scintillations are fluctuations in the phase and/or amplitude of trans-ionospheric radio signals caused by electron density irregularities in the ionosphere. A better understanding of the scintillation pattern is important to make a better assessment of GPS receiver performance, for instance. Additionally, scintillation can be used as a tool for remote sensing of ionospheric irregularities. Therefore, the study of ionospheric scintillation has both scientific as well as technological implications. In the past few years, there has been a significant advance in the methods for analysis of scintillation and in our understanding of the impact of scintillation on GPS receiver performance. In this work, we revisit some of the existing methods of analysis of scintillation, propose an alternative approach, and apply these techniques in a comprehensive study of the characteristics of amplitude scintillation. This comprehensive study made use of 32?days of high-rate (50?Hz) measurements made by a GPS-based scintillation monitor located in S?o José dos Campos, Brazil (23.2°S, 45.9°W, ?17.5° dip latitude) near the Equatorial Anomaly during high solar flux conditions. The variability of the decorrelation time (τ₀) of scintillation patterns is presented as a function of scintillation severity index (S ₄). We found that the values of τ₀ tend to decrease with the increase of S ₄, confirming the results of previous studies. In addition, we found that, at least for the measurements made during this campaign, averaged values of τ₀ (for fixed S ₄ index values) did not vary much as a function of local time. Our results also indicate a significant impact of τ₀ in the GPS carrier loop performance for S ₄?≥?0.7. An alternative way to compute the probability of cycle slip that takes into account the fading duration time is also presented. The results of this approach show a 38% probability of cycle slips during strong scintillation scenarios (S ₄ close to 1 and τ₀ near 0.2?s). Finally, we present results of an analysis of the individual amplitude fades observed in our set of measurements. This analysis suggests that users operating GPS receivers with C/N ₀ thresholds around 30?dB-Hz and above can be affected significantly by low-latitude scintillation.     

Study of the Interaction Mechanism in the Biosorption of Copper(II) Ions onto Posidonia oceanica and Peat

A systematic approach was used to characterize the biosorption of copper(II) onto two biosorbents, Posidonia oceanica and peat, focusing on the interaction mechanisms, the copper(II) sorption–desorption process and the thermal behavior of the biosorbents. Sorption isotherms at pH 4–6 were obtained and the experimental data were fitted to the Langmuir model with a maximum uptake (q_max) at pH 6 of 85.78 and 49.69 mg g^?1, for P. oceanica and peat, respectively. A sequential desorption (SD) with water, Ca(NO₃)₂, and EDTA was applied to copper‐saturated biosorbents. Around 65–70% copper(II) were desorbed with EDTA, indicating that this heavy metal was strongly bound. The reversibility of copper(II) sorption was obtained by desorption with HCl and SD. Fourier transform IR spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis detected the presence of peaks associated with OH groups in aromatic and aliphatic structures, CH, CH₂, and CH₃ in aliphatic structures, COO^? and COOH groups and unsaturated aromatic structures on the surface of both biosorbents, as well as peaks corresponding to Si? O groups on the surface of peat. The results of SEM‐EDX and FTIR analysis of copper‐saturated samples demonstrated that ion exchange was one of the mechanisms involved in copper(II) retention. Thermal analysis of biosorbent samples showed that copper(II) sorption–desorption processes affected the thermal stability of the biosorbents.