It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

Toward a more transformative participation in the conservation of Madagascar’s natural resources

For nearly two decades, participatory conservation projects in Madagascar have failed to gain the backing of rural populations. I believe that the concept of participation as it is currently theorized and practiced by conservationists in Madagascar lies at the heart of the problem. It is essential, therefore that the notion of participation be unpacked, an egalitarian framework for the notion be formulated and the theoretical and methodological infrastructure needed to enable effective conservation praxis reconstructed. Toward this end, this paper considers two general theories of democratic political action: a Habermasian-inspired conception of deliberative democracy and Jacques Rancière’s post-structuralist account of dissensus politics. I argue that by tacking between the results of a critique of the notions of normative legitimacy and political efficacy in the deliberative model and Rancière’s politics of radical equality, users and managers of natural resources in Madagascar and elsewhere will have a set of conceptual tools toward reconstructing a more powerful, transformative participatory conservation. Ethnographic data collected from the Ifanadiana/Ranomafana region of southeastern Madagascar helps illuminate the argument.     

Cenozoic cooling and denudation in the North Pennines (northern England,UK) constrained by apatite fission-track analysis of cuttings from the Eastgate Borehole

The Cenozoic landscape development of Britain remains relatively poorly understood. On the one hand, ‘plumists’ have tried to explain the present-day topography as a consequence of effects of the Iceland mantle plume during the Palaeocene-Eocene British Tertiary Igneous Province (BTIP) magmatism, with little or no subsequent modification. On the other hand, abundant evidence exists from fluvial and marine terraces and superimposed karstic levels for significant vertical crustal motions during the Quaternary, which clearly has nothing to do with any mantle plume. To shed light on this issue, we present the first publication of data that constrain the Cenozoic thermal history of the North Pennine uplands of northern England, from apatite fission-track analysis of drill cuttings from the Eastgate Borehole in Weardale, in the western part of County Durham. Our results indicate ～650 m of regional denudation since the latest Oligocene/Early Miocene, plus the ～400 m of localized entrenchment that has created the modern Weardale valley. Before the latest Oligocene/Early Miocene, but following the BTIP magmatism, the crust in this region experienced significant cooling, mainly due to a decrease in the geothermal gradient from ～55 to 61 °C km^?1 to the present 38 °C km^?1, along with ～300 ± 200 m of denudation. Although significant BTIP magmatism occurred in northern England, it thus had only a limited net effect; the crust experienced dramatic heating, but cooled back to its original thermal state within, at most, a few tens of millions of years. We suggest that this rapid cooling effect resulted from westward flow of relatively cold material within the mobile lower-crustal layer, driven by the lateral pressure gradient induced by earlier heating effects and effects of surface processes. Whatever topography developed during the Palaeogene, as a direct result of these heating effects, underplating at the base of the crust, and the associated modest denudation, was presumably also short-lived; significant changes to the crustal thickness, and thus to the topography, can be envisaged as a consequence of subsequent lower-crustal flow.     

Building Agent‐Based Walking Models by Machine‐Learning on Diverse Databases of Space‐Time Trajectory Samples

We introduce a novel scheme for automatically deriving synthetic walking (locomotion) and movement (steering and avoidance) behavior in simulation from simple trajectory samples. We use a combination of observed and recorded real‐world movement trajectory samples in conjunction with synthetic, agent‐generated, movement as inputs to a machine‐learning scheme. This scheme produces movement behavior for non‐sampled scenarios in simulation, for applications that can differ widely from the original collection settings. It does this by benchmarking a simulated pedestrian's relative behavioral geography, local physical environment, and neighboring agent‐pedestrians; using spatial analysis, spatial data access, classification, and clustering. The scheme then weights, trains, and tunes likely synthetic movement behavior, per‐agent, per‐location, per‐time‐step, and per‐scenario. To prove its usefulness, we demonstrate the task of generating synthetic, non‐sampled, agent‐based pedestrian movement in simulated urban environments, where the scheme proves to be a useful substitute for traditional transition‐driven methods for determining agent behavior. The potential broader applications of the scheme are numerous and include the design and delivery of location‐based services, evaluation of architectures for mobile communications technologies, what‐if experimentation in agent‐based models with hypotheses that are informed or translated from data, and the construction of algorithms for extracting and annotating space‐time paths in massive data‐sets.     

Climate change impacts and adaptation in cities: a review of the literature

Many of the decisions relating to future urban development require information on climate change risks to cities This review of the academic and “grey” literature provides an overview assessment of the state of the art in the quantification and valuation of climate risks at the city-scale. We find that whilst a small number of cities, mostly in OECD countries, have derived quantitative estimates of the costs of climate change risks under alternative scenarios, this form of analysis is in its infancy. The climate risks most frequently addressed in existing studies are associated with sea-level rise, health and water resources. Other sectors such as energy, transport, and built infrastructure remain less studied. The review has also undertaken a case study to examine the progress in two cities—London and New York—which are relatively advanced in the assessment of climate risks and adaptation. The case studies show that these cities have benefited from stakeholder engagement at an early stage in their risk assessments. They have also benefited from the development of specific institutional responsibilities for co-ordinating such research from the outset. This involvement has been critical in creating momentum and obtaining resources for subsequent in-depth analysis of sectoral impacts and adaptation needs..While low cost climate down-scaling applications would be useful in future research, the greatest priority is to develop responses that can work within the high future uncertainty of future climate change, to build resilience and maintain flexibility. This can best be used within the context of established risk management practices.     

Multiseason evaluation of the MM5, COAMPS and WRF over southeast United States

Three models, MM5, COAMPS, and WRF, have been applied for the warm season in 2003 and the cool season in 2003?C2004 to evaluate their performances. All models run over the same domain area covering the north Gulf Mexico and southeastern United States (US) region with the same spatial resolution of 27?km. It was found that the temporal variations of the mean error distribution and strength at 24 and 36?h were rather weak for surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed for all models. A warm bias in surface temperature forecasts dominated over land during the warm season, whereas a cool bias existed during the cool season. The MM5 and WRF produced negative biases of sea level pressure during the warm season and positive biases during the cool season while the COAMPS yielded a similar distribution of sea level pressure biases during both seasons. During both seasons, similar surface wind speed biases produced by each model included a high wind speed forecast over most areas by MM5 while the COAMPS and WRF yielded weak surface winds over the western Plains and stronger surface winds over the eastern Plains. Root-mean-squared errors revealed that the forecast of surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed were degraded with the increase of forecast time. For rainfall evaluation, it was found that the MM5 underpredicted seasonal precipitation while the COAMPS and WRF overpredicted. The bias scores revealed that the MM5 yielded an underprediction of the coverage of precipitation areas, especially for heavier rainfall events. The MM5 presented the lower threat score at lighter rainfall events compared to the COAMPS and WRF. For moderate and heavier thresholds, all models lacked forecast accuracy. The WRF accuracy in predicting precipitation was heavily dependent upon the performance of the selected cumulus parameterization scheme. Use of the Grell?CDevenyi and Bette?CMiller?CJanjic schemes helps suppress precipitation overprediction.     

Polychaete/amphipod ratio as an indicator of environmental impact related to offshore oil and gas production along the Norwegian continental shelf

Benthic faunal data is regularly collected worldwide to assess the ecological quality of marine environments. Recently, there has been renewed interest in developing biological indices able to identify environmental status and potential anthropogenic impacts. In this paper we evaluate the performance of a general polychaete/amphipod ratio along the Norwegian continental shelf as an environmental indicator for offshore oil and gas impacts. Two main trends are apparent: first, a contamination gradient is discernible from where production takes place compared to stations 10,000 m away. Second, the quality of the marine environment has improved over time. These results are consistent with monitoring reports employing a combination of uni- and multi-variate statistics. Thus, we consider this ratio as a relatively simple, useful and potentially cost-effective complement to other more demanding assessment techniques. Because of its strong theoretical basis, it may also be useful for detecting ecological change as a result of other activities.     

Marine meiobenthic and nematode community structure in Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong upon recovery from sewage pollution

Sediment quality, meiofaunal and nematode communities were monitored across six time points at two inside-harbour and three outside-harbour sites over a three-year period in Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong, after the implementation of a sewage treatment project. Twenty-one meiofaunal groups comprising mainly free-living nematodes and harpacticoid copepods and 188 species of free-living nematodes were identified. The outside-harbour area had a more diverse and significantly different nematode community structure as compared to that in the inside-harbour area. Such spatial difference was highly correlated with the total Kjeldahl nitrogen content of the sediments. Over the study period, there was no significant improvement in sediment quality within the harbour. However, in the last sampling time, an increase in meiofaunal abundance and a closer similarity in nematode composition between one of the inside- and outside-harbour sites suggested signs of recovery of the meiofauna as a response to abatement of sewage pollution.     

System identification of a building from multiple seismic records

This paper describes the identification of finite dimensional, linear, time‐invariant models of a 4‐story building in the state space representation using multiple data sets of earthquake response. The building, instrumented with 31 accelerometers, is located on the University of California, Irvine campus. Multiple data sets, recorded during the 2005 Yucaipa, 2005 San Clemente, 2008 Chino Hills and 2009 Inglewood earthquakes, are used for identification and validation. Considering the response of the building as the output and the ground motion as the input, the state space models that represent the underlying dynamics of the building in the discrete‐time domain corresponding to each data set are identified. The time‐domain Eigensystem Realization Algorithm with the Observer/Kalman filter identification procedure are adopted in this paper, and the modal parameters of the identified models are consistently determined by constructing stabilization diagrams. The four state space models identified demonstrate that the response of the building is amplitude dependent with the response frequency and damping, being dependent on the magnitude of ground excitation. The practical application of this finding is that the consistency of this building response to future earthquakes can be quickly assessed, within the range of ground excitations considered (0.005g–0.074g), for consistency with prior response—this assessment of consistent response is discussed and demonstrated with reference to the four earthquake events considered in this study. Inclusion of data sets relating to future earthquakes will enable the findings to be extended to a wider range of ground excitation magnitudes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用斜井钻孔破裂观测值约束深井和深矿中的全应力张量——在两个复杂实例中的应用

经过15年时间我们发展出一套技术,即利用钻孔井壁的非致命性破裂,包括压性破裂、钻探诱发的张性破裂以及与切穿井孔断层的滑动有关的应力扰动观测值,来确定任意向井和钻孔中的全应力张量。这些技术已延伸应用到石油工业中,也应用到矿山开采的钻孔岩芯取样中,以取得开采区周围应力集中影响的区域内外的应力状态。条件允许时,可用水压致裂法估计最小主应力值,但不能估计最大水平主应力值。作者在文中先回顾了这套方法的概念,然后对两个复杂实例进行了研究。第1个实例涉及到圣安德烈斯断层深部观测站（San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth,SAFOD）计划第1阶段钻探应力状态的确定,SAFOD计划是一个钻穿加州中部圣安德烈斯断层的科学钻井计划。第2个实例涉及到确定南非一个极深矿周围的地壳应力状态。这些研究表明,在相当大的深度范围内,斜井钻孔破裂观测值与应力大小和方向是一致的。