Automated threshold selection methods for extreme wave analysis

The study of the extreme values of a variable such as wave height is very important in flood risk assessment and coastal design. Often values above a sufficiently large threshold can be modelled using the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the parameters of which are estimated using maximum likelihood. There are several popular empirical techniques for choosing a suitable threshold, but these require the subjective interpretation of plots by the user.In this paper we present a pragmatic automated, simple and computationally inexpensive threshold selection method based on the distribution of the difference of parameter estimates when the threshold is changed, and apply it to a published rainfall and a new wave height data set. We assess the effect of the uncertainty associated with our threshold selection technique on return level estimation by using the bootstrap procedure. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology by a simulation study and compare it with the approach used in the JOINSEA software. In addition, we present an extension that allows the threshold selected to depend on the value of a covariate such as the cosine of wave direction.     

Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning

The declining health of marine ecosystems around the world is evidence that current piecemeal governance is inadequate to successfully support healthy coastal and ocean ecosystems and sustain human uses of the ocean. One proposed solution to this problem is ecosystem-based marine spatial planning (MSP), which is a process that informs the spatial distribution of activities in the ocean so that existing and emerging uses can be maintained, use conflicts reduced, and ecosystem health and services protected and sustained for future generations. Because a key goal of ecosystem-based MSP is to maintain the delivery of ecosystem services that humans want and need, it must be based on ecological principles that articulate the scientifically recognized attributes of healthy, functioning ecosystems. These principles should be incorporated into a decision-making framework with clearly defined targets for these ecological attributes. This paper identifies ecological principles for MSP based on a synthesis of previously suggested and/or operationalized principles, along with recommendations generated by a group of twenty ecologists and marine scientists with diverse backgrounds and perspectives on MSP. The proposed four main ecological principles to guide MSP—maintaining or restoring: native species diversity, habitat diversity and heterogeneity, key species, and connectivity—and two additional guidelines, the need to account for context and uncertainty, must be explicitly taken into account in the planning process. When applied in concert with social, economic, and governance principles, these ecological principles can inform the designation and siting of ocean uses and the management of activities in the ocean to maintain or restore healthy ecosystems, allow delivery of marine ecosystem services, and ensure sustainable economic and social benefits.     

Geochemistry and Petrogenesis of Late Ediacaran Rare-metalAlbite Granites of the Arabian-Nubian Shield

The Abu Dabbab albite granite(ADAG), in the central Eastern Desert of Egypt, hosts the most significant rare metal ore deposit in the northern part of the Neoproterozoic Arabian-Nubian Shield. Here, we report detailed field,petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical investigation of the ADAG, an isolated stock-like granitic body with sharp intrusive contacts against metamorphic country rocks, probably emplaced at about 600 Ma. The fine-grained porphyritic upper unit is a preserved remnant of the shallowly-emplaced apex of the magma chamber, whereas the medium-grained lower unit crystallized at deeper levels under subvolcanic conditions. The peraluminous leucocratic ADAG shares common geochemical characteristics with post-collisional intraplate A-type magmas. In addition to the conspicuous enrichment in Na2 O, the ADAG is remarkable for its anomalous concentrations of Ta, Nb, Li, Hf, Ga, Sn, Zn and heavy rare-earth elements. Nb-Ta minerals in the ADAG are mixed with Fe-Mn oxides, forming black patches that increase in abundance toward of the base of the intrusion. Columbite-tantalite, cassiterite and wolframite are the most important ore minerals.Pronounced negative Eu anomalies(Eu/Eu* = 0.10–0.24) reflect extreme magmatic fractionation and perhaps the effects of late fluid-rock interaction. The ADAG was most likely generated by partial melting of the juvenile middle crust of the ANS as the geotherm was elevated by erosional uplift following lithospheric delamination and it was emplaced at the intersection of lineations of structural weakness. Although formation of the ADAG and its primary enrichment in rare metals are essentially due to magmatic processes, late-stage metasomatism caused limited redistribution of rare metals. Fluid-driven subsolidus modification was limited to the apex of the magma chamber and drove development of greisen, amazonite, and quartz veins along fracture systems.     

The Bataan orogene: Eastward subduction, tectonic rotations, and volcanism in the western Pacific (Philippines)

The Philippine mobile belt represents a crustal fragment, wedged between two subduction systems exhibiting opposite polarity. The eastern (Philippine—Quezon) system probably originated in the Eocene during northwest—southeast spreading of the west Philippine basin. Westward subduction is continued, probably as a result of northward motion of the Philippine basin crust. The western (Manila—Bataan) system originated in the Oligocene by spreading and formation of the South China Sea basin. Eastward subduction dominates the tectonics in the northern part of the archipelago and resulted in the formation of the Bataan orogene, a sequence of three parallel volcanic arcs emplaced in obducted oceanic crust. Geochemical and radiometric data indicate that the arcs migrated eastward with time (Miocene to Present) while changing composition from tholeiitic via calc-alkaline to shoshonitic. Centers of the latter two types are presently active. Depocenters behind the arcs also migrated eastward with time, suggesting correction of the isostatic disequilibrium caused by geanticlinal uplift of the orogene. Paleomagnetic evidence suggests that central Luzon is rotating counterclockwise probably due to differential spreading in the South China Sea basin. The west Philippine basin rotates clockwise. This results in significant “Einengung” in the southern part of the archipelago.     

Pyrolysis-high resolution gas chromatography and pyrolysis gas chromatography-mass spectrometry of kerogens and kerogen precursors

A series of kerogens and kerogen precursors isolated from DSDP samples, oil shales and Recent algal mats have been examined by Curie point pyrolysis-high resolution gas chromatography and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. This study has shown that the three main types of kerogens (marine, terrestrial and mixtures of both) can be characterized using these techniques. The marine (algal) kerogens yield principally aliphatic products and the terrestrial kerogens yield more aromatic and phenolic products with some n-alkanes and n-alkenes. The yields of n-alkanes and n-alkenes increase and phenols decrease with increasing geologic age, however, pyrolysis-GC cannot be used to characterize the influence of short term diagenesis on the kerogen structure.     

Long base line tilt and strain measurement

Two types of noise afflict strain and tilt measurement. They may be categorized as “active” noise, which is due to atmospheric pressure variations, temperature variations, water-table variations and so forth; and “passive” or signal-generated noise which is a consequence of the interaction of the strain field of interest with inhomogeneities of material properties local to the measurement site.The reason why both types of noise are normally reduced by the use of long base line instruments is explained and a simple, practical long base line tiltmeter is described.     

Determination of the REE in Geological Reference Materials DTS-1 (Dunite) and PCC-1 (Peridotite) by Ultrasonic and Microconcentric Desolvating Nebulisation ICP-MS

Inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry is well suited for the precise, accurate and rapid determination of rare earth elements in most geological samples. However, determination of rare earth elements in certain mantle-derived materials, without applying preconcentration techniques, remains problematical due to low natural concentrations (generally < 1 ng g⁻¹). Consequently, USGS reference materials DTS-1 (a dunite) and PCC-1 (a partially serpentinized harzburgite) have only suggested rather than recommended values for the rare earth elements in reference material compilations. We compared results obtained using two ICP-MS instruments: a U-5000AT ultrasonic nebuliser coupled to a PQ2+ quadrupole ICP-MS and an ELEMENT sector field ICP-MS equipped with a MCN-6000 microconcentric desolvating nebuliser, with the suggested literature values for these two reference materials. Precision and accuracy of analytical methods employed by both instruments were demonstrated by excellent relative standard deviations (< 2%) and inter-laboratory agreement (< 5%) for numerous analyses of BHVO-1 and BIR-1, which are well established with rare earth elements contents at the μg g⁻¹ level. Repeat analyses of DTS-1 and PCC-1 at each laboratory indicate that each method is generally precise to better than 5% at sub-g g⁻¹ levels. Furthermore, values from both instruments generally agree to within 10%. Our DTS-1 and PCC-1 values agree reasonably well with selected data reported in the literature (except for Ce and Sm in DTS-1) but exhibit poorer agreement with reported compilation values. With the demonstrated level of precision and accuracy, we contend that these new values for DTS-1 and PCC-1, generated by two different instruments, are the best estimates of the true whole-rock composition of these samples reported to date.     

Holocene Foraminifera as Indicators of Relative Estuarine–Lagoonal and Oceanic Influences in Estuarine Sediments of the River Murray, South Australia: Volume 53, Number 3 (2000), pages 378–391

In southeastern South Australia, the River Murray debouches through a coastal barrier separating euryhaline estuarine-lagoonal waters from the Southern Ocean. Depending upon the relative freshwater outflow of the river and ingress of the ocean, water salinity varies greatly within the lower estuary. Ammonia beccarii and Elphidium articulatum are euryhaline species of foraminifera that characterize the estuary and back-barrier Coorong Lagoon. The inner-shelf marine environment hosts an assemblage in which Discorbis dimidiatus, E. crispum, E. macelliforme, and various cibicidid species predominate. In cored sediments recovered from the shallow lower estuary, the relative abundance of A. beccarii + E. articulatum was compared with that of D. dimidiatus + E. crispum + E. macelliforme + other species. These data, and AMS radiocarbon ages determined for foraminifera and ostracods, provide evidence of a change from maximum oceanic influence (5255 ± 60 yr B.P.) to maximum estuarine influence (3605 ± 70 yr B.P.). Over this same time interval, sea level fell relatively by about 2 m. However, the event was also contemporaneous with falling water levels in several Victorian lakes, and it is thus attributed to onset of climatic aridity. Reduced precipitation in the River Murray catchment and reduced freshwater outflow enhanced development of the flood-tide delta and constriction of the mouth.