Integrating Uncertainty Theories with GIS for Modeling Coastal Hazards of Climate Change

Prediction of coastal hazards due to climate change is fraught with uncertainty that stems from complexity of coastal systems, estimation of sea level rise, and limitation of available data. In-depth research on coastal modeling is hampered by lack of techniques for handling uncertainty, and the available commercial geographical information systems (GIS) packages have only limited capability of handling uncertain information. Therefore, integrating uncertainty theory with GIS is of practical and theoretical significance. This article presents a GIS-based model that integrates an existing predictive model using a differential approach, random simulation, and fuzzy set theory for predicting geomorphic hazards subject to uncertainty. Coastal hazard is modeled as the combined effects of sea-level induced recession and storm erosion, using grid modeling techniques. The method is described with a case study of Fingal Bay Beach, SE Australia, for which predicted responses to an IPCC standard sea-level rise of 0.86 m and superimposed storm erosion averaged 12 m and 90 m, respectively, with analysis of uncertainty yielding maximum of 52 m and 120 m, respectively. Paradoxically, output uncertainty reduces slightly with simulated increase in random error in the digital elevation model (DEM). This trend implies that the magnitude of modeled uncertainty is not necessarily increased with the uncertainties in the input parameters. Built as a generic tool, the model can be used not only to predict different scenarios of coastal hazard under uncertainties for coastal management, but is also applicable to other fields that involve predictive modeling under uncertainty.     

Wave run-up and overtopping on smooth and rough slopes of coastal structures

A series of hydraulic model tests has been carried out in a glass wave flume to investigate the influences of wave height, wave period, wave steepness, surf similarity parameter, roughness, layer thickness and porosity on wave run-up and overtopping of 1:2 sloped impermeable and permeable breakwaters fronted by a 1:10 gentle, smooth beach slope. The analysis of results involves the correlation between the overtopping energy transfer with the relative wall height and the relationship between wave run-up and overtopping rate. Further, measured wave run-up and overtopping rates are compared with the results given in the Shore Protection Manual (1984), Automated Coastal Engineering System (1992)and results of other investigators.     

Biogeochemical impacts due to mesoscale eddy activity in the Sargasso Sea as measured at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS)

A comparison of monthly biogeochemical measurements made from 1993 to 1995, combined with hydrography and satellite altimetry, was used to assess the impacts of nine eddy events on primary productivity and particle flux in the Sargasso Sea. Measurements of primary production, thorium-234 flux, nitrate+nitrite, and photosynthetic pigments made at the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site were used. During the 3 years of this study, four out of six high thorium-234 flux events occurred during the passage of an eddy. Primary production nearly as high as the spring bloom maximum was observed in two mode-water eddies (May 1993 and July 1995). The 1994 spring bloom at BATS was suppressed by the passage of an anticyclone. Distinct phytoplankton community shifts were observed in mode-water eddies, which had an increased percentage of diatoms and dinoflagellates, and in cyclones, which had an increased percentage of Synechococcus. These variations in species composition within mode-water eddies and cyclones may be associated with the ages of the sampled eddies, and/or differences in physical, chemical, and biological factors in these two distinct eddy types. In general, eddies that were 1–2 months old elicited a large biological response; eddies that were 3 months old may show a biological response and were accompanied by high thorium flux; eddies that were 4 months old or older did not show a biological response or high thorium flux. A conceptual model depicting temporal changes during eddy upwelling, maturation, and decay can explain the observations in all seven upwelling eddies present in the time-series investigated herein.     

Spatial patterns and environmental risks of ringnet fishing along the Kenyan coast

Ringnet fishing began in the early 20th century and is practised worldwide, mainly to target nearshore pelagic species. The method was introduced to Kenya’s coastal waters by migrant fishers from Tanzania. However, the impacts of this fishing gear remain poorly assessed. We assessed the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort and its possible effects on ecosystem components, such as coral reefs, marine megafauna and marine protected areas, on the south coast of Kenya. We tracked 89 ringnet fishing trips made from December 2015 to January 2016 and used spatial multicriteria analysis to determine hotspots of possible environmental risks. The results showed that habitat type and bathymetric profile influenced the spatial distribution of ringnet fishing effort. Mixed seagrass and coral habitats had the highest concentration of the effort. Most of the habitats in the study area were moderately exposed to the impacts of the ringnet fishery. The study identifies high-risk areas that require spatial measures to minimise possible environmental risks of the gear both to habitats and to endangered sea turtles.     

Imaging of Buried Archaeological Materials: The Reflection Properties of Archaeological Wood

Effective marine archaeological site management demands detailed information on not only the spatial distribution of artefacts but also the degradation state of the materials present. Although sonar methods have frequently been used in an attempt to detect buried wooden shipwrecks they are currently unable to indicate their degradation state. To assess the sensitivity of acoustic measurements to changes in the degradation state of such material, and hence the potential for sonars to quantify degradation, laboratory measurements of compressional wave velocity, as well as bulk density for oak and pine samples, in varying states of decay, were undertaken. These data enabled the calculation of theoretical reflection coefficients for such materials buried in various marine sediments. As wood degrades, the reflection coefficients become more negative, resulting in the hypothesis that the more degraded wood becomes, the easier it should be to detect. Typical reflection coefficients of the order of −0.43 and −0.52 for the most degraded oak and pine samples in sand are predicted. Conversely, for wood exposed to seawater the predicted reflection coefficients are large and positive for undegraded material (0.35 for oak, 0.18 for pine) and decrease to zero or slightly below for the most degraded samples. This indicates that exposed timbers, when heavily degraded, can be acoustically transparent and so undetectable by acoustic methods. Corroboration of these experimental results was provided through comparison with high resolution seismic reflection data that has been acquired over two shipwrecks.     

Management of a shallow temperate estuary to control eutrophication: The effect of hydrodynamics on the system’s nutrient loading

The Mondego estuary, a shallow warm-temperate intertidal system located on the west coast of Portugal, has for some decades been under severe ecological stress, mainly caused by eutrophication. Water circulation in this system was, until 1998, mainly dependent on tides and on the freshwater input of a small tributary artificially controlled by a sluice. After 1998, the sluice opening was effectively minimised to reduce the nutrient loading, and the system hydrodynamics improved due to engineering work in the upstream areas. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of the mitigation measures implemented in 1998. Changes to the hydrodynamics of the system were assessed using precipitation and salinity data in relation to the concentrations of dissolved inorganic nutrients, as well as the linkage between dissolved N:P ratios and the biological parameters (phytoplankton chlorophyll a concentrations, green macroalgal biomass and seagrass biomass). Two distinctive periods were compared, over a ten year period: from January 1993 to January 1997 and from January 1999 until January 2003. The effective reduction in the dissolved N:P atomic ratio from 37.7 to 13.2 after 1998 is a result of lowered ammonia, but not the oxidised forms of nitrogen (nitrate plus nitrite), or increased concentrations of dissolved inorganic phosphorus. Results suggest that the phytoplankton is not nutrient limited, yet maximum and mean biomass of green macroalgae was reduced by one order of magnitude after the mitigation measures. This suggests that besides lowering the water residence time of the system, macroalgal growth became nitrogen limited. In parallel to these changes the seagrass-covered area and biomass of Zostera noltii showed signs of recovery.     

Variations in wave direction estimated using first and second order Fourier coefficients

In most design applications such as alignment of the berthing structure and breakwater alignment, it becomes necessary to determine the direction of design wave. There are two different approaches to determine wave direction. One involves the use of first order Fourier coefficients (mean wave direction) while the other uses second order Fourier coefficients (principal wave direction). Both the average wave direction over the entire frequency range (0.03–0.58 Hz) and the direction corresponding to the peak frequency are used in practice. In the present study, comparison is made on wave directions estimated based on first and second order Fourier coefficients using data collected at four locations in the west and east coasts of India. Study shows that at all locations, the mean and principal wave directions for frequencies ranging from 0.07 to 0.25 Hz (±0.5 times peak frequency) co-vary with a correlation coefficient of 0.99 but at lower and higher frequencies, difference between the parameters is large. Average difference between the mean wave direction at peak frequency and the average over the frequency related to spectral energy more than 20% of maximum value is less, around 13°. Study shows that average difference in the sea and swell directions is around 39°.     

Simulating a heavy metal spill under estuarine conditions: Effects on the clam Scrobicularia plana

We describe the effect of heavy metals Zn, Cd, Pb and Cu on the induction of methallothioneins on the clam Scrobicularia plana along a salinity gradient simulated under laboratory conditions. The clams were exposed to constant heavy metal concentrations in a dynamic estuary simulator during a 15-day assay to investigate possible induction of metal-binding proteins in them. The concentration of heavy metals in water was analysed. Clams were analysed for methallothionein concentrations. The speciation of Zn, Cd, Pb and Cu along the salinity gradient was modelled. Zn showed the highest concentrations and its prevalent species was the free ion. Intersite differences have been observed in methallothionein concentration and related to the salinity gradient. It seems that synthesis of methallothioneins is the result of physiological forces acting in concert with the changes in the chemical speciation of metals, owing to the trace metals uptake is controlled by means of an interaction of physiology and physicochemistry.