Cepheid parallaxes and the Hubble constant

Revised Hipparcos parallaxes for classical Cepheids are analysed together with 10 Hubble Space Telescope ( HST )-based parallaxes. In a reddening-free V , I relation we find that the coefficient of log  P is the same within the uncertainties in our Galaxy as in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), contrary to some previous suggestions. Cepheids in the inner region of NGC 4258 with near solar metallicities confirm this result. We obtain a zero-point for the reddening-free relation and apply it to the Cepheids in galaxies used by Sandage et al. to calibrate the absolute magnitudes of Type Ia supernova (SNIa) and to derive the Hubble constant. We revise their result for H ₀ from 62 to 70 ± 5 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹. The Freedman et al. value is revised from 72 to 76 ± 8 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹. These results are insensitive to Cepheid metallicity corrections. The Cepheids in the inner region of NGC 4258 yield a modulus of 29.22 ± 0.03 (int.) compared with a maser-based modulus of 29.29 ± 0.15. Distance moduli for the LMC, uncorrected for any metallicity effects, are 18.52 ± 0.03 from a reddening-free relation in V , I ; 18.47 ± 0.03 from a period–luminosity relation at K ; 18.45 ± 0.04 from a period–luminosity–colour relation in J , K . Adopting a metallicity correction in V , I from Macri et al. leads to a true LMC modulus of 18.39 ± 0.05.     

Multiwavelength study of the nuclei of a volume-limited sample of galaxies – II. Optical, infrared and radio observations

We present optical and infrared broad-band images, radio maps, and optical spectroscopy for the nuclear region of a sample of nearby galaxies. The galaxies have been drawn from a complete volume-limited sample for which we have already presented X-ray imaging. We modelled the stellar component of the spectroscopic observations to determine the star formation history of our targets. Diagnostic diagrams were used to classify the emission-line spectra and determine the ionizing mechanism driving the nuclear regions. All those sources classified as active galactic nuclei present small Eddington ratios  (∼10⁻³–10⁻⁶)  , implying a very slow growth rate of their black holes. We finally investigate the relative numbers of active and normal nuclei as a function of host galaxy luminosity and find that the fraction of active galaxies slowly rises as a function of host absolute magnitude in the   M _B ∼−12  to −22 range.     

Preliminary model of nitrogen loads from southern bluefin tuna aquaculture

Farming of wild tuna in coastal areas is a relatively new aquaculture industry and little is known about the magnitude of nutrient discharges to the environment. In this work we present a preliminary model of nitrogen loads from southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) aquaculture in lower Spencer Gulf, South Australia. The model was developed based on feed inputs, estimates of fish metabolism and environmental data. Two pens were monitored over a full grow-out season to determine nitrogen sedimentation fluxes, remineralization at the sediment-water interface and accumulation in the sediments. The model suggests that the high metabolic rates of tuna lead to low retention of nitrogen in fish tissues (7-12% of feed inputs) and high environmental losses (260-502kg Ntonne(-1) growth). Considering Australian annual production of 4380tonnes over initial stocked biomass, total loads can reach 1137tonnes N per year, 86-92% lost as dissolved wastes. The nature of wastes suggests low localized impacts at current stocking densities and holding periods.     

Paleoclimatic implications of glacial and postglacial refugia for Pinus pumila in western Beringia

Palynological results from Julietta Lake currently provide the most direct evidence to support the existence of a glacial refugium for Pinus pumila in mountains of southwestern Beringia. Both percentages and accumulation rates indicate the evergreen shrub survived until at least ∼ 19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP in the Upper Kolyma region. Percentage data suggest numbers dwindled into the late glaciation, whereas pollen accumulation rates point towards a more rapid demise shortly after ∼ 19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Pinus pumila did not re-establish in any great numbers until ∼ 8100 ¹⁴C yr BP, despite the local presence ∼ 9800 ¹⁴C yr BP of Larixdahurica, which shares similar summer temperature requirements. The postglacial thermal maximum (in Beringia ∼ 11,000-9000 ¹⁴C yr BP) provided Pinus pumila shrubs with equally harsh albeit different conditions for survival than those present during the LGM. Regional records indicate that in this time of maximum warmth Pinus pumila likely sheltered in a second, lower-elevation refugium. Paleoclimatic models and modern ecology suggest that shifts in the nature of seasonal transitions and not only seasonal extremes have played important roles in the history of Pinus pumila over the last ∼ 21,000 ¹⁴C yr BP.     

Using GIS to improve public health emergency response in rural areas during the COVID-19 crisis: A case study of South Carolina,US

Geographic information systems (GIS) have become essential tools in the public health domain, especially when it comes to monitoring and surveillance of disease. The purpose of this article is to describe and explore the benefits of using GIS to improve public health emergency response during a global pandemic and, in particular, how to effectively optimize the allocation of public health resources in a rural setting using a data-driven approach that considers the multifactorial demand for new COVID-19 testing sites. Herein, the authors present their interprofessional project as an example of such efforts to inform applications for practice. The team developed a GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis model for use by decision-makers and public health experts in similar future planning and response scenarios. Focus is placed on rural characteristics (e.g., accessibility), vulnerable populations, and daily changing conditions (e.g., COVID-19 daily case fluctuations) that create additional challenges for public health agencies and policymakers.     

Effects of the large-scale atmospheric circulation on the onset and strength of urban heat islands: a case study

Air temperature was monitored at 13 sites across the urban perimeter of a Brazilian midsize city in winter 2011. In this study, we show that the urban heat island (UHI) develops only at night and under certain weather conditions, and its intensity depends not only on the site's land cover but also on the meteorological setting. The urban heat island intensity was largest (6.6 °C) under lingering high-pressure conditions, milder (3.0 °C) under cold anticyclones and almost vanished (1.0 °C) during the passage of cold fronts. The cooling rates were calculated to monitor the growth and decay of the UHI over each specific synoptic setting. Over four contiguous days under the effect of a lingering high-pressure event, we observed that the onset of cooling was always at about 2 h before sunset. The reference site attained mean cooling rate of ?2.6 °C h^?1 at sunset, whilst the maximum urban rate was ?1.2 °C h^?1. Under a 3-day cold anticyclone episode, cooling also started about 2 h before sunset, and the difference between maximum rural (?2.0 °C h^?1) and urban (?1.0 °C h^?1) cooling rates diminished. Under cold-front conditions, the cooling rate was homogeneous for all sites and swang about zero throughout the day. The air temperature has a memory effect under lingering high-pressure conditions which intensified the UHI, in addition to the larger heat storage in the urban area. Cold anticyclone conditions promoted the development of the UHI; however, the cold air pool and relatively light winds smoothed out its intensity. Under the influence of cold fronts, the urban fabric had little effect on the city's air temperature field, and the UHI was imperceptible.     

Impact of improved assimilation of temperature and salinity for coupled model seasonal forecasts

We assess the impact of improved ocean initial conditions for predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) coupled seasonal prediction model for the period 1982–2006. The new ocean initial conditions are provided by an ensemble-based analysis system that assimilates subsurface temperatures and salinity and which is a clear improvement over the previous optimal interpolation system which used static error covariances and was univariate (temperature only). Hindcasts using the new ocean initial conditions have better skill at predicting sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with ENSO than do the hindcasts initialized with the old ocean analyses. The improvement derives from better prediction of subsurface temperatures and the largest improvements come during ENSO–IOD neutral years. We show that improved prediction of the Niño3.4 SST index derives from improved initial depiction of the thermocline and halocline in the equatorial Pacific but as lead time increases the improved depiction of the initial salinity field in the western Pacific become more important. Improved ocean initial conditions do not translate into improved skill for predicting the IOD but we do see an improvement in the prediction of subsurface temperatures in the Indian Ocean (IO). This result reflects that the coupling between subsurface and surface temperature variations is weaker in the IO than in the Pacific, but coupled model errors may also be limiting predictive skill in the IO.     

ENSO,the IOD and the intraseasonal prediction of heat extremes across Australia using POAMA-2

The simulation and prediction of extreme heat over Australia on intraseasonal timescales in association with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is assessed using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The analysis is based on hindcasts over 1981–2010 and focuses on weeks 2 and 3 of the forecasts, i.e. beyond a typical weather forecast. POAMA simulates the observed increased probabilities of extreme heat during El Niño events, focussed over south eastern and southern Australia in SON and over northern Australia in DJF, and the decreased probabilities of extreme heat during La Niña events, although the magnitude of these relationships is smaller than observed. POAMA also captures the signal of increased probabilities of extreme heat during positive phases of the IOD across southern Australia in SON and over Western Australia in JJA, but again underestimates the strength of the relationship. Shortcomings in the simulation of extreme heat in association with ENSO and the IOD over southern Australia may be linked to deficiencies in the teleconnection with Indian Ocean SSTs. Forecast skill for intraseasonal episodes of extreme heat is assessed using the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index. Skill is highest over northern Australia in MAM and JJA and over south-eastern and eastern Australia in JJA and SON, whereas skill is generally poor over south-west Western Australia. Results show there are windows of forecast opportunity related to the state of ENSO and the IOD, where the skill in predicting extreme temperatures over certain regions is increased.