The characteristics of asymmetric pedestrian behavior: A preliminary study using passive smartphone location data

Understanding the movements of people is essential for the design and management of urban areas. This article presents a novel approach to understanding the asymmetry in route choice (i.e., the degree to which people choose different walking routes for their outbound and return journeys). The study utilizes a large volume of traces of individual routes, captured using a smartphone application. The routes are aggregated to a regular grid, and matrix statistics are developed to estimate the aggregate degree of route asymmetry for different types of route (shortest, longest, weekday, weekend, etc.). The results suggest that people change their route approximately 15% of the time. Although this varied little when observing trips made at the weekend or on a weekday, people taking journeys that deviated substantially from the shortest possible path were 6 percentage points less likely to change their routes than those taking journeys that were closest to the shortest path (14 and 20% asymmetry, respectively). The absolute length also impacted on the asymmetry of journeys, but not as substantially. This result is important because, for the first time, it reports a correlation between deviation from shortest route and aggregate pedestrian choice.     

Numerically enhanced conceptual modelling (NECoM) applied to the Malta Mean Sea Level Aquifer

Conventional hydrogeological practice is to formulate a conceptual model, which is often the basis of a numerical model. The numerical model is then used to test groundwater management strategies. A workflow is proposed, employing the numerically enhanced conceptual model (NECoM) of the Mean Sea Level Aquifer (MSLA) on the island of Malta. The Malta MSLA is overexploited and under threat of salinization. Data (heads, chloride concentrations, electrical conductivity logs, tidal tests and qualitative analyses) were assimilated into a fast-running numerical model. Simultaneously, strategies for optimal acquisition of further data were examined through the modelling process. The model was delivered through the Energy and Water Agency, with suggestions for flexible model deployment. These workflows will, hopefully, spawn model improvements through further revision of the base concepts. The model allows the agency to make predictions, which have uncertainties that are quantified and reduced through data assimilation as new data become available. Contemplated management plans can therefore be properly assessed before implementation. The proposed NECoM approach can be generalized since it bases model usage on the premise that modelling should make maximum use of existing data by assimilating its information content, thereby highlighting the uncertainties of decision-critical predictions that remain because of data insufficiency. Thus, the presently disjointed process of modelling on the one hand, and data acquisition on the other, can be better aligned. Conceptual and numerical model development become parallel, rather than sequential, activities. Together, they enable predictions of future system behaviour for which bias is reduced and uncertainties quantified.

     

Geological and hydrogeological reconstruction of the main aquifers of the Maltese islands

Hydrogeology Journal - Geological and hydrogeological conceptualizations of the five main aquifers of Malta were performed by means of characterization of the groundwater bodies’ geometries...     

New Cretaceous paleomagnetic results from the foreland of the Southern Alps and the refined apparent polar wander path for stable Adria

The central-western and the eastern Southern Alps are separated by the triangular shaped Adige embayment, which belongs to stable Adria and was the site of pelagic sedimentation from the Tithonian through Maastrichtian. The first part of this study presents paleomagnetic results from the Tithonian–Cenomanian Biancone and Turonian–Maastrichtian Scaglia Rossa formations sampled at 33 geographically distributed and biostratigraphically dated localities.The new and high quality paleomagnetic results from the Adige embayment are then combined with coeval paleomagnetic directions from autochthonous Istria (Márton et al., 2008), which also belongs to stable Adria. The combined data set (which for the Late Albian–Maastrichtian time period is constructed similarly to the synthetic African curve by Besse and Courtillot, 2002, 2003) reveals an important tectonic event (Late Aptian–Early Albian) characterized by 20° CCW rotation and sedimentary hiatus.Comparison between paleomagnetic declinations/inclinations expected in an African framework (i.e. with the assumption that Adria is still an African promontory) leads to the following conclusions. The time-distributed Tithonian and Berriasian (150–135 Ma) paleomagnetic directions exhibit the “African hairpin” with an inclination minimum and a sudden change from CW to CCW rotation at 145 Ma. Concerning the younger ages, the declinations for Adria continue to follow the African trend of CCW rotation till the end of Cretaceous. However, the Tithonian–Maastrichtian declination curve for stable Adria is displaced by 10° from the “African” curve as a result of two rotations. The first, an about 20° CW rotation of Adria with respect to Africa took place between the Maastrichtian and the mid-Eocene. During this time the orientation of Adria remained the same, while Africa continued its CCW rotation. The younger rotation (30°CCW) changed the orientation of Adria relative to Africa as well as to the present North.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

Modelling probability of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a changing climate, Otta, Central Norway

We analyse slope stability conditions for shallow landslides under an extreme precipitation regime with regard to present and future scenarios, in order to first study the effect of changes in precipitation on stability conditions, considering uncertainty in the model parameters, and second to evaluate which factors contribute the most to model output and uncertainty. We used a coupled hydrological-stability model to study the hydrological control on shallow landslides in different precipitation regimes, with reference to the case study of Otta, located in central east Norway. We included a wide range of climatic settings, taking intensity, duration of the extreme events and two different antecedent precipitation conditions into account. Eleven future scenarios were determined using results of down-scaled meteorological models. Considering the uncertainty in the soil parameters, we used the Monte Carlo approach and probability of failure resulting from 5,000 trials was calculated for each precipitation scenario. In unstable areas the probabilities of failure at present and future conditions were compared using a bootstrapping method. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to understand how variations in input parameters influence the output of the selected model. The results show changes in the modelled stability conditions only if the effect of antecedent precipitation is not taken into account. The uncertainties in the predicted extreme precipitation events, soil parameters, and antecedent precipitation conditions do not allow any accurate estimation of changes in stability conditions for shallow landslides.     

Determination of physical properties of the Asteroid (41) Daphne from interferometric observations in the thermal infrared

We describe interferometric observations of the Asteroid (41) Daphne in the thermal infrared obtained with the Mid-Infrared Interferometric Instrument (MIDI) and the Auxiliary Telescopes (ATs) of the European Southern Observatory (ESO) Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). We derived the size and the surface thermal properties of (41) Daphne by means of a thermophysical model (TPM), which is used for the interpretation of interferometric data for the first time. From our TPM analysis, we derived a volume equivalent diameter for (41) Daphne of 189 km, using a non-convex 3-D shape model derived from optical lightcurves and adaptive optics images (B. Carry, private communication). On the other hand, when using the convex shape of Kaasalainen et al. (Kaasalainen, M., Mottola, S., Fulchignoni, M. [2002]. Icarus 159, 369-395) in our TPM analysis, the resulting volume equivalent diameter of (41) Daphne is between 194 and 209 km, depending on the surface roughness. The shape of the asteroid is used as an a priori information in our TPM analysis. No attempt is made to adjust the shape to the data. Only the size of the asteroid and its thermal parameters such as, albedo, thermal inertia and roughness are adjusted to the data. We estimated our model systematic uncertainty to be of 4% and of 7% on the determination of the asteroid volume equivalent diameter depending on whether the non-convex or the convex shape is used, respectively. In terms of thermal properties, we derived a value of the surface thermal inertia smaller than 50 J m⁻² s^−0.5 K⁻¹ and preferably in the range between 0 and ∼30 J m⁻² s^−0.5 K⁻¹. Our TPM analysis also shows that Daphne has a moderate macroscopic surface roughness.     

Site-aspect influence on climate sensitivity over time of a high-altitude Pinus cembra tree-ring network

Recently a divergence between tree-ring parameters from temperature-limited environments and temperature records has been observed worldwide but comprehensive explanations are still lacking. From a dendroclimatic analysis performed on a high-altitude tree-ring network of Pinus cembra (L.) in the Central Italian Alps we found that site aspect influences non-stationary growth-climate relationships over time. A general increasing divergence between ring width and the summer temperature record (J–A) has been observed especially for chronologies from SW-facing slopes, whereas chronologies from N-facing sites showed stable relationships over time. The monthly analysis revealed that the decrease in sensitivity was mostly accounted for by the changes in the relationships with June temperature (decreasing correlations especially for S- and W-facing site chronologies), whereas trees from N-facing sites showed an increasing sensitivity to July temperatures. Our data suggest that at high altitudes, low temperatures at the beginning of the growing season no longer limit growth. We also found that our temperature-sensitive trees did not linearly respond in radial growth to the extreme heat event of summer 2003, and formed an annual ring of average width, resulting in a strong divergence from the temperature record. Our findings underline the importance of site ecology for tree-ring based climate reconstructions using temperature-sensitive ring-width chronologies, and may help in solving the ‘divergence problem’.     

Asteroid rotation and shapes from numerical simulations of gravitational re-accumulation

We present simulations of the gravitational collapse of a mono-disperse set of spherical particles for studying shape and spin properties of re-accumulated members of asteroid families. Previous numerical studies have shown that these “gravitational aggregates” exhibit properties similar to granular continuum models described by Mohr-Coulomb theory. A large variety of shapes is thus possible, in principle consistent with the observed population of asteroid shapes.However, it remains to be verified that the re-accumulation following a catastrophic disruption is capable of naturally producing those shapes. Conversely, we find that fluid equilibrium shapes (flattened two-axis spheroids, in particular) are preferentially created by re-accumulation. This is rather unexpected, since the dynamical system used could allow for other stable configurations. Jacobi three-axial ellipsoids can also be created, but this seems to be a less common outcome.The results obtained so far seem to underline the importance of other non-disruptive shaping factors during the lifetime of rubble-pile asteroids.