The role of constraints on joint hypocentre determination in seismotectonic studies

In this paper we show how the performance of the joint hypocentre determination (JHD) method can be improved, leading to reduced instability in cases close to singularity. The method has been extended by imposing a number of constraints introduced by other authors, and adding a new one. We tested the stability of the method and the relative advantages of the various constraints by simulating a geometrical space distribution of hypocentres recorded by a regional seismic network. We then applied this method to deep earthquakes that occurred in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea subduction zone and to the seismicity of the Northern Apennines, which is moderately deeper than the typical shallow seismicity of the Apennines. The results obtained from the analysis of synthetic data and actual earthquakes confirm that the JHD method produces less scatter in the hypocentral determinations with respect to the standard locations. The main conclusion of our study is that we can significantly reduce the systematic mislocations that result from applying JHD to very clustered seismicity if we introduce the appropriate set of constraints.     

Thermoluminescence dating of the Kamil impact crater (Egypt)

Thermoluminescence (TL) dating has been used to determine the age of the meteorite impact crater at Gebel Kamil (Egyptian Sahara). Previous studies suggested that the 45 m diameter structure was produced by a fall in recent times (less than 5000 years ago) of an iron meteorite impactor into quartz‐arenites and siltstones belonging to the Lower Cretaceous Gilf Kebir Formation. The impact caused the complete fragmentation of the impactor, and the formation of a variety of impactites (e.g., partially vitrified dark and light materials) present as ejecta within the crater and in the surrounding area. After a series of tests to evaluate the TL properties of different materials including shocked intra‐crater target rocks and different types of ejecta, we selected a suite of light‐colored ejecta that showed evidence of strong thermal shock effects (e.g., partial vitrification and the presence of high‐temperature and ‐pressure silica phases). The abundance of quartz in the target rocks, including the vitrified impactites, allowed TL dating to be undertaken. The variability of radioactivity of the intracrateric target rocks and the lack of direct in situ dosimetric evaluations prevented precise dating; it was, however, possible to constrain the impact in the 2000 BC–500 AD range. If, as we believe, the radioactivity measured in the fallback deposits is a reliable estimate of the mean radioactivity of the site, the narrower range 1600–400 BC (at the 2σ confidence level) can be realistically proposed.     

A calibration system for superconducting gravimeters

A new method for the calibration of a superconducting gravity meter is described, in which a 273 Kg annular mass is placed around the meter and is moved up and down. The geometry of the apparatus is easy to model and the accuracy in the computation of the gravity variation induced by the mass, 6.7µgal, is limited only by the accuracy in the knowledge of value of the gravitational constant. Measurements done in 91 and 92 for the calibration of the instrument GWR-T015 are described. The calibration factor has been determined with a precision of about 0.3%.     

Paleoflood events recorded by speleothems in caves

Speleothems are usually composed of thin layers of calcite (or aragonite). However, cemented detrital materials interlayered between laminae of speleothemic carbonate have been also observed in many caves. Flowstones comprising discontinuous carbonate layers form due to flowing water films, while flood events introduce fluviokarstic sediments in caves that, on occasion, are recorded as clayey layers inside flowstones and stalagmites. This record provides a potential means of understanding the frequency of palaeofloods using cave records. In this work, we investigate the origin of this type of detrital deposit in El Soplao Cave (Northern Spain). The age of the lowest aragonite layer of a flowstone reveals that the earliest flood period occurred before 500 ka, though most of the flowstone formed between 422 +69/‐43 ka and 400 +66/‐42 ka. This suggests that the cave was periodically affected by palaeoflood events that introduced detrital sediments from the surface as a result of occasional extreme rainfall events, especially at around 400 ka. The mineralogical data enable an evolutionary model for this flowstone to be generated based on the alternation of flood events with laminar flows and carbonate layers precipitation that can be extrapolated to other caves in which detrital sediments inside speleothems have been found. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi-risk governance for natural hazards in Naples and Guadeloupe

Technical and institutional capacities are strongly related and must be jointly developed to guarantee effective natural risk governance. Indeed, the available technical solutions and decision support tools influence the development of institutional frameworks and disaster policies. This paper analyses technical and institutional capacities, by providing a comparative evaluation of governance systems in Italy and France. The focus is on two case studies: Naples and Guadeloupe. Both areas are exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, floods, tsunamis, fires, cyclones, and marine inundations Cascade and conjoint effects such as seismic swarms triggered by volcanic activity have also been taken into account. The research design is based on a documentary analysis of laws and policy documents informed by semi-structured interviews and focus groups with stakeholders at the local level. This leads to the identification of three sets of governance characteristics that cover the key issues of: (1) stakeholders and governance level; (2) decision support tools and mitigation measures; and (3) stakeholder cooperation and communication. The results provide an overview of the similarities and differences as well as the strengths and weaknesses of the governance systems across risks. Both case studies have developed adequate decision support tools for most of the hazards of concern. Warning systems, and the assessment of hazards and exposure are the main strengths. While technical/scientific capacities are very well developed, the main weaknesses involve the interagency communication and cooperation, and the use and dissemination of scientific knowledge when developing policies and practices. The consequences for multi-risk governance are outlined in the discussion.     

Polyphase thrusting and dyke emplacement in the central Southern Alps (Northern Italy)

The Triassic succession of the central Southern Alps (Italy) is stacked into several units bounded by south-verging low-angle thrust faults, which are related to two successive steps of crustal shortening. The thrust surfaces are cut by high-angle extensional and strike-slip faults, which controlled the emplacement of hypabissal magmatic intrusions that post-date thrusts motions. Intrusion ages based on SHRIMP U–Pb zircon dating span between 42 ± 1 and 39 ± 1 Ma, suggesting close time relationships with the earliest Adamello intrusion stages and, more in general, with the widespread calc-alkaline magmatism described in the Southern Alps. Fission-track ages of magmatic apatites are indistinguishable from U–Pb crystallization ages of zircons, suggesting that the intrusion occurred in country rocks already exhumed above the partial annealing zone of apatite (depth < 2–4 km). These data indicate that the central Southern Alps were already structured and largely exhumed in the Middle Eocene. Although we describe minor faults affecting magmatic bodies and local reactivations of older structures, no major internal deformations have occurred in the area after the Bartonian. Neogene deformations were instead concentrated farther south, along the frontal part of the belt.     

Comparing models of debris-flow susceptibility in the alpine environment

Debris-flows are widespread in Val di Fassa (Trento Province, Eastern Italian Alps) where they constitute one of the most dangerous gravity-induced surface processes. From a large set of environmental characteristics and a detailed inventory of debris flows, we developed five models to predict location of debris-flow source areas. The models differ in approach (statistical vs. physically-based) and type of terrain unit of reference (slope unit vs. grid cell). In the statistical models, a mix of several environmental factors classified areas with different debris-flow susceptibility; however, the factors that exert a strong discriminant power reduce to conditions of high slope-gradient, pasture or no vegetation cover, availability of detrital material, and active erosional processes. Since slope and land use are also used in the physically-based approach, all model results are largely controlled by the same leading variables.Overlaying susceptibility maps produced by the different methods (statistical vs. physically-based) for the same terrain unit of reference (grid cell) reveals a large difference, nearly 25% spatial mismatch. The spatial discrepancy exceeds 30% for susceptibility maps generated by the same method (discriminant analysis) but different terrain units (slope unit vs. grid cell). The size of the terrain unit also led to different susceptibility maps (almost 20% spatial mismatch). Maps based on different statistical tools (discriminant analysis vs. logistic regression) differed least (less than 10%). Hence, method and terrain unit proved to be equally important in mapping susceptibility.Model performance was evaluated from the percentages of terrain units that each model correctly classifies, the number of debris-flow falling within the area classified as unstable by each model, and through the metric of ROC curves. Although all techniques implemented yielded results essentially comparable; the discriminant model based on the partition of the study area into small slope units may constitute the most suitable approach to regional debris-flow assessment in the Alpine environment.     

Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations

In this paper we present a study concerning the climatic behaviour of two principal observables, temperature and precipitation as obtained from the measurements carried out at 50 Italian meteorological stations, since 1961. Analyses of WMO Climate Normals (CliNo) from 1961 to 1990 have been performed dividing the 50 Italian stations in three different classes: mountain (11 stations), continental (17) and coastal areas (21).The comparison of the CliNo 1961–1990 with the trend of temperature and precipitation for the period 1991–2000 showed a sharp significant increase of summer temperatures over Italy starting from 1980. This phenomenon was particularly evident for mountain stations, where a significant temperature increase has been recorded also during the autumn. Moreover, the analysis of precipitation data permitted to point out that, starting from 1980, mountain stations have been affected by a significant increase of precipitation events during autumn and winter, while for the rest of the Italian territory a reduction of precipitations has been recorded during early spring.