Climate and climate change in the Austrian–Swiss region of the European Alps during the twentieth century according to Feddema

We present a 1-km² gridded German dataset of hourly surface climate variables covering the period 1995 to 2012. The dataset comprises 12 variables including temperature, dew point, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, global and direct shortwave radiation, down- and up-welling longwave radiation, sea level pressure, relative humidity and vapour pressure. This dataset was constructed statistically from station data, satellite observations and model data. It is outstanding in terms of spatial and temporal resolution and in the number of climate variables. For each variable, we employed the most suitable gridding method and combined the best of several information sources, including station records, satellite-derived data and data from a regional climate model. A module to estimate urban heat island intensity was integrated for air and dew point temperature. Owing to the low density of available synop stations, the gridded dataset does not capture all variations that may occur at a resolution of 1 km². This applies to areas of complex terrain (all the variables), and in particular to wind speed and the radiation parameters. To achieve maximum precision, we used all observational information when it was available. This, however, leads to inhomogeneities in station network density and affects the long-term consistency of the dataset. A first climate analysis for Germany was conducted. The Rhine River Valley, for example, exhibited more than 100 summer days in 2003, whereas in 1996, the number was low everywhere in Germany. The dataset is useful for applications in various climate-related studies, hazard management and for solar or wind energy applications and it is available via doi: 10.5676/DWD_CDC/TRY_Basis_v001.     

Urban-rural fog differences in Belgrade area,Serbia

Urban/rural fog appearance during the last 27 years in the Belgrade region is analysed using hourly meteorological records from two meteorological stations: an urban station at Belgrade-Vra?ar (BV) and a rural station at Belgrade-Airport (BA). The effects of urban development on fog formation are discussed through analysis of fog frequency trends and comparison with a number of meteorological parameters. The mean annual and the mean annual minimum temperatures were greater at the urban BV station than at the rural BA station. The mean monthly relative humidity and the mean monthly water vapour pressure were greater at the rural than urban station. During the period of research (1988–2014), BA experiences 425 more days with fog than BV, which means that BV experiences fog for 62.68% of foggy days at BA. Trends in the number of days with fog were statistically non-significant. We analysed the fog occurrence during different types of weather. Fog in urban BV occurred more frequently during cyclonal circulation (in 52.75% of cases). In rural BA, the trend was the opposite and fog appeared more frequently during anticyclonic circulation (in 53.58% of cases). Fog at BV occurred most frequently in stable anticyclonic weather with light wind, when a temperature inversion existed (21.86% of cases). Most frequently, fog at BA occurred in the morning and only lasted a short time, followed by clearer skies during the anticyclonic warm and dry weather (22.55% of cases).     

Performance of CMORPH,TMPA, and PERSIANN rainfall datasets over plain,mountainous, and glacial regions of Pakistan

The present study aims at the assessment of six satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) in Pakistan. For each assessed products, both real-time (RT) and post adjusted (Adj) versions are considered to highlight their potential benefits in the rainfall estimation at annual, monthly, and daily temporal scales. Three geomorphological climatic zones, i.e., plain, mountainous, and glacial are taken under considerations for the determination of relative potentials of these SREs over Pakistan at global and regional scales. All SREs, in general, have well captured the annual north-south rainfall decreasing patterns and rainfall amounts over the typical arid regions of the country. Regarding the zonal approach, the performance of all SREs has remained good over mountainous region comparative to arid regions. This poor performance in accurate rainfall estimation of all the six SREs over arid regions has made their use questionable in these regions. Over glacier region, all SREs have highly overestimated the rainfall. One possible cause of this overestimation may be due to the low surface temperature and radiation absorption over snow and ice cover, resulting in their misidentification with rainy clouds as daily false alarm ratio has increased from mountainous to glacial regions. Among RT products, CMORPH-RT is the most biased product. The Bias was almost removed on CMORPH-Adj thanks to the gauge adjustment. On a general way, all Adj versions outperformed their respective RT versions at all considered temporal scales and have confirmed the positive effects of gauge adjustment. CMORPH-Adj and TMPA-Adj have shown the best agreement with in situ data in terms of Bias, RMSE, and CC over the entire study area.     

Drivers of long-term precipitation and runoff variability in the southeastern USA

The hydroclimatology of the southeastern USA (AL, GA, NC, SC, and TN) is analyzed from a holistic perspective, including multiple climate drivers. Monthly precipitation modeled by the PRISM group and runoff data (1952–2011) from 18 basins are analyzed using a single-field based principal component’s analysis. Results indicate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation are the main atmospheric drivers of hydroclimate variability in the region, sometimes operating at several months’ lag. Their influence is the strongest in the fall through spring, which corresponds with the dry season in the southern parts of the study area thereby increasing pressure on already limited water resources. The Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific-North American patterns vary on shorter-term bases, and also show a significant, but temporally more sporadic influence. Insight is also brought to the ongoing discussion, confirming the disassociation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillation. Findings can be used in water resources forecasting, giving an indication of expected water volumes several months ahead.     

Regional intensity–duration–frequency analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin,Turkey, by using L-moments and regression analysis

The analysis of rainfall frequency is an important step in hydrology and water resources engineering. However, a lack of measuring stations, short duration of statistical periods, and unreliable outliers are among the most important problems when designing hydrology projects. In this study, regional rainfall analysis based on L-moments was used to overcome these problems in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) of Turkey. The L-moments technique was applied at all stages of the regional analysis, including determining homogeneous regions, in addition to fitting and estimating parameters from appropriate distribution functions in each homogeneous region. We studied annual maximum rainfall height values of various durations (5 min to 24 h) from seven rain gauge stations located in the EBSB in Turkey, which have gauging periods of 39 to 70 years. Homogeneity of the region was evaluated by using L-moments. The goodness-of-fit criterion for each distribution was defined as the Z^DIST statistics, depending on various distributions, including generalized logistic (GLO), generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type 3 (PE3), and generalized Pareto (GPA). GLO and GEV determined the best distributions for short (5 to 30 min) and long (1 to 24 h) period data, respectively. Based on the distribution functions, the governing equations were extracted for calculation of intensities of 2, 5, 25, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years return periods (T). Subsequently, the T values for different rainfall intensities were estimated using data quantifying maximum amount of rainfall at different times. Using these T values, duration, altitude, latitude, and longitude values were used as independent variables in a regression model of the data. The determination coefficient (R ²) value indicated that the model yields suitable results for the regional relationship of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF), which is necessary for the design of hydraulic structures in small and medium sized catchments.     

Concentrations of metallic elements in long-range-transported aerosols measured simultaneously at three coastal sites in China and Japan

To determine the effects of long-range transport of aerosols from an upwind area in East Asia to a downwind area in Japan, we chemically analyzed aerosols collected simultaneously on Tuoji Island (Shandong Province, China), Fukue Island (Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan), and Cape Hedo (Okinawa Prefecture, Japan). We focused on changes in the metallic composition of PM_2.5 aerosols during long-range transport. The average mass concentrations of PM_2.5 at the three sites decreased in the order Tuoji Island > Fukue Island ≈ Cape Hedo (48.3 ± 4.5, 13.9 ± 1.5, and 13.2 ± 0.9 μg/m³, respectively). The fraction of coarse particles in total suspended particles estimated by (1–PM_2.5/TSP) was highest on Cape Hedo, indicating that the contribution of sea salts was increased by long-range transport of the aerosols over the ocean. Enrichment factor analysis revealed that at all three sites, Al, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, Co, Sr, and Ba originated from soil; whereas Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Mo, Ag, Cd, Sn, Sb, Tl, and P appeared to be of anthropogenic origin. Na was the most abundant element on Cape Hedo, indicating the addition of sea salts during aerosol transport. The V concentration was highest at Fukue Island, which was ascribed to V emission from ships. Sixty-one percent of the V on Fukue Island and 62% of the V on Cape Hedo were determined to have originated from ships, implicating of data obtained on dates during which backward trajectory analysis indicated that the same air mass passed over Tuoji Island, Fukue Island, and Cape Hedo in that order.     

Drought analysis in the Tons River Basin,India during 1969-2008

The primary focus of this study is the analysis of droughts in the Tons River Basin during the period 1969–2008. Precipitation data observed at four gauging stations are used to identify drought over the study area. The event of drought is derived from the standardized precipitation index (SPI) on a 3-month scale. Our results indicated that severe drought occurred in the Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna stations in the years 1973 and 1979. The droughts in this region had occurred mainly due to erratic behavior in monsoons, especially due to long breaks between monsoons. During the drought years, the deficiency of the annual rainfall in the analysis of annual rainfall departure had varied from ?26% in 1976 to ?60% in 1973 at Allahabad station in the basin. The maximum deficiency of annual and seasonal rainfall recorded in the basin is 60%. The maximum seasonal rainfall departure observed in the basin is in the order of ?60% at Allahabad station in 1973, while maximum annual rainfall departure had been recorded as ?60% during 1979 at the Satna station. Extreme dry events (z score <?2) were detected during July, August, and September. Moreover, severe dry events were observed in August, September, and October. The drought conditions in the Tons River Basin are dominantly driven by total rainfall throughout the period between June and November.     

Impacts of climate change on building energy demands in the intra-Americas region

It was recently reported a regional warming in the intra-Americas region where sea surface temperature exhibited increases exceeding 0.15 °C/decade and an accelerated air temperature rise that could impact building energy demands per capita (EDC). Reanalysis data is used herein to quantify the impacts of these warming trends on EDC. Results of the analysis depict a Southern Greater Antilles and inland South America with a positive annual EDC rate of 1–5 kWh per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios were selected to analyze energy demand changes in the twenty-first century. A multi-model ensemble forecasts an EDC increase of 9.6 and 23 kWh/month in the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 at the end of the twenty-first century, which may increase average building cooling loads in the region by 7.57 GW (RCP2.6) and 8.15 GW (RCP4.5), respectively. Furthermore, 4 of 9 (RCP2.6) and 7 of 9 (RCP4.5) of the major countries in this region have EDCs ranging between 1887 and 2252 kWh/year at the end of this century. Therefore, increased energy production and improved energy infrastructure will be required to maintain ideal indoor building conditions at the end of the twenty-first century in these tropical coastal regions as consequence of a warmer climate.     

Effect of asymmetrical street canyons on pedestrian thermal comfort in warm-humid climate of Cuba

Walkability and livability in cities can be enhanced by creating comfortable environments in the streets. The profile of an urban street canyon has a substantial impact on outdoor thermal conditions at pedestrian level. This paper deals with the effect of asymmetrical street canyon profiles, common in the historical centre of Camagüey, Cuba, on outdoor thermal comfort. Temporal-spatial analyses are conducted using the Heliodon2 and the RayMan model, which enable the generation of accurate predictions about solar radiation and thermal conditions of urban spaces, respectively. On these models, urban settings are represented by asymmetrical street canyons with five different height-to-width ratios and four street axis orientations (N-S, NE-SW, E-W, SE-NW). Results are evaluated for daytime hours across the street canyon, by means of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET index) which allows the evaluation of the bioclimatic conditions of outdoor environments. Our findings revealed that high profiles (façades) located on the east-facing side of N-S streets, on the southeast-facing side of NE-SW streets, on the south-facing side of E-W street, and on the southwest-facing side of SE-NW streets, are recommended to reduce the total number of hours under thermal stress. E-W street canyons are the most thermally stressed ones, with extreme PET values around 36 °C. Deviating from this orientation ameliorates the heat stress with reductions of up to 4 h in summer. For all analysed E-W orientations, only about one fifth of the street can be comfortable, especially for high aspect ratios (H/W > 3). Optimal subzones in the street are next to the north side of the E-W street, northwest side of the NE-SW street, and southwest side of the SE-NW street. Besides, when the highest profile is located on the east side of N-S streets, then the subzone next to the east-facing façade is recommendable for pedestrians. The proposed urban guidelines enable urban planners to create and renovate urban spaces which are more efficient in diminishing pedestrian thermal stress.     

Human mortality impacts of the 2015 summer heat spells in Slovakia

In 2015, Central Europe experienced an unusually warm summer season. For a great majority of climatic stations around Slovakia, it had been the warmest summer ever recorded over their entire instrumental observation period. In this study, we investigate the mortality effects of hot days’ sequences during that particular summer on the Slovak population. In consideration of the range of available mortality data, the position of 2015 is analysed within the years 1996–2015. Over the given 20-year period, the summer heat spells of 2015 were by far the most severe from a meteorological point of view, and clearly the deadliest with the total of almost 540 excess deaths. In terms of impacts, an extraordinary 10-day August heat spell was especially remarkable. The massive lethal effects of heat would have likely been even more serious under normal circumstances, since the number of premature deaths appeared to be partially reduced due to a non-standard mortality pattern in the first quarter of the year. The heat spells of the extremely warm summer of 2015 in Slovakia are notable not just for their short-term response in mortality. It appears that in a combination with the preceding strong influenza season, they subsequently affected mortality conditions in the country in the following months up until the end of the year. The impacts described above were rather different for selected population subgroups (men and women, the elderly). Both separately and as a part of the annual mortality cycle, the 2015 summer heat spells may represent a particularly valuable source of information for public health.