Analysis of climatic trends in data from the agrometeorological station of Bologna-Cadriano, Italy (1952–2007)

Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about adaptation strategies. The global situation is well described by the Fourth IPCC assessment report (IPCC 2007), but local studies are important to understand the impact and the priorities to adopt in adaptation strategies. In this study a historical set of meteorological data, collected during the period 1952–2007 at the University of Bologna (Italy) agrometeorological station, was analysed. Several indexes, such as Frost Severity Index, number of hot days, number of rainy days, etc., were calculated, and their trends in time were analysed. The results show a scenario of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, a decrease in rainy days and a deepening of the watertable. The effect of these changes on agriculture will be a decrease in water availability, an increase in heat stress in plants and an increase in drought risk.     

Initialization and data assimilation experiments with a primitive equation model

The process of combining models of the ocean circulation with large data sets is known in meteorology as model initialization and data assimilation. This process is new to oceanographers, who only now are on the verge of having available world-wide synoptic maps of dynamic variables. In this paper we carry out a series of idealized initialization/assimilation experiments with a primitive equation (PE) model, which constitute a first step in developing a realistic process model and data assimilation techniques for the Gulf Stream system. The PE model is used in a spin-down mode and initialized with an analytic jet profile with geostrophically balanced fields.Two major questions are addressed in the present study. The first concerns the initialization process of a PE model during which internal/inertial gravity wave noise is produced. We ask: are the initialization shocks equally crucial for ocean models as they have been for their atmospheric counterparts? The results of an extensive series of balanced versus unbalanced initializations indicate that, for a PE model with a rigid lid, a brutally unbalanced initialization is required to produce strong internal gravity wave shocks. A geostrophically balanced initialization is sufficient to ensure smooth jet evolutions, with no apparent gravity waves, over long time durations in the spin-down mode. No sophisticated initialization procedures seem, therefore, to be required.The second question addressed is: which component of the flow is the most important in data assimilation to drive the model response towards a baseline reference ocean? We specifically compare the knowledge of the depth-integrated flow only, corresponding to measurements of the total transport, with the knowledge of the density field only, or equivalently the velocity shear. The knowledge of the interior density field is much more effective in decreasing the root-mean-square (r.m.s.) errors relative to the reference ocean. If the baroclinic structure is known, coarse horizontal resolutions of data insertion can be reached before significantly worsening the model estimates. If only the depth-averaged flow is known, a decrease in the horizontal resolution of data assimilation has an immediate effect: the r.m.s. errors sharply increase and the assimilation run diverges from the reference ocean. In the assimilation of the barotropic flow alone, even with dense resolution, the errors in the deep layers always show an increasing trend. The relative effectiveness of baroclinic versus barotropic data insertion can be rationalized in the context of geostrophic adjustment theory.     

Venomous snakes and climate change: ophidism as a dynamic problem

Snakebite envenoming is an important public health problem worldwide and addressing this issue has turned into a challenge for applied science. In this sense, the study of the distributional patterns of problematic snakes is central in terms of public health. Global Climate Change is affecting the distributional ranges of snakes, so that decisions regarding treatment of ophidism (poisoning by snake venom) may also change spatially and/or temporally. Here, we assessed suitable climate spaces at present conditions and estimated potential future changes in the distributions of the five southernmost venomous snakes, responsible for almost 99 % of accidents in Argentina, by implementing an ensemble of forecasts between different algorithms and scenarios for 2030 and 2080. Present suitable climate spaces showed high concordance with known distribution of the species. Future projections show moderate “north to south” displacements of the snakes’ suitable climate spaces, implying potential increments of suitable spaces in human populated areas in Argentina. Our results suggest the necessity of considering ophidism as a dynamic problem. In this regard, the analyses implemented here are useful tools in improving the assessment of snakebite envenoming in light of global climate change.     

Effects of Amazon basin deforestation on regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport towards tropical South America

The water cycle over the Amazon basin is a regulatory mechanism for regional and global climate. The atmospheric moisture evaporated from this basin represents an important source of humidity for itself and for other remote regions. The deforestation rates that this basin has experienced in the past decades have implications for regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport. In this study, we analyzed the changes in atmospheric moisture transport towards tropical South America during the period 1961–2010, according to two deforestation scenarios of the Amazon defined by Alves et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 100(3-4):337–350, 2017). These scenarios consider deforested areas of approximately 28% and 38% of the Amazon basin, respectively. The Dynamic Recycling Model is used to track the transport of water vapor from different sources in tropical South America and the surrounding oceans. Our results indicate that under deforestation scenarios in the Amazon basin, continental sources reduce their contributions to northern South America at an annual scale by an average of between 40 and 43% with respect to the baseline state. Our analyses suggest that these changes may be related to alterations in the regional Hadley and Walker cells. Amazon deforestation also induces a strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow that transports atmospheric moisture from the Tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea to tropical South America during the austral summer. A weakening of the cross-equatorial flow is observed during the boreal summer, reducing moisture transport from the Amazon to latitudes further north. These changes alter the patterns of precipitable water contributions to tropical South America from both continental and oceanic sources. Finally, we observed that deforestation over the Amazon basin increases the frequency of occurrence of longer dry seasons in the central-southern Amazon (by between 29 and 57%), depending on the deforestation scenario considered, as previous studies suggest.     

The influence of variable topography on the depositional behaviour of pyroclastic density currents: The examples of the Upper Pollara eruption (Salina Island,southern Italy)

Stratigraphic reconstruction of the Upper Pollara eruption has allowed for the inference of eruptive mechanisms and the distillation of a sedimentological model for pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) moving across variable topography. The pre-eruptive topography in the study area was characterised by a tuff ring-like morphology, with both inward and outward dipping slopes. Highly viscous, moderately porphyritic, dacitic to rhyolitic magmas fed the eruption, which was characterised by a Vulcanian eruptive style. The stratigraphic succession was divided into five eruption units (EUs), which result from different phases of the eruption separated by stases. Sustained columns occurred only during EU1, while PDC generation dominates EU2–5. Lithofacies analysis of the PDC deposits indicates the prevalence of massive coarse-grained deposits on the inner slopes of the Pollara crater, which are interpreted as the deposits of a flow-boundary zone dominated by granular flow or fluid escape regimes. Dune-bedded, massive to stratified lithofacies dominate the outer slopes of the Pollara crater, and are interpreted as the deposits of PDCs with flow-boundary zones in which traction played a major role. Thin, massive PDC deposits are exposed on the sub-horizontal Malfa terrace, and are interpreted as representative of flow-boundary zones dominated by a granular flow regime. The occurrence of stacked deposits indicates that most of the PDCs were characterised by unsteady pulsatory behaviour, with development of trains of pulses during their transport. The downcurrent lithofacies transitions observed for the Upper Pollara deposits have finally been compared with other similar lithofacies associations which have been described for short-lived PDCs at tuff rings, in order to discuss the influence of pre-eruptive topography on lithofacies association.     

New geomorphic evidence for anticlinal growth driven by blind-thrust faulting along the northern Marche coastal belt (central Italy)

The Northern Marche coastal belt is characterised by a series of NW-SE trending, NE verging folds forming the easternmost edge of the Apennines thrust front. Several geomorphic features suggest that the folds are still growing and hence that the thrust front is active. The occurrence of several historical and instrumental earthquakes (e.g. 1672, 1690, 1786, 1875, 1916, 1930, 1972, all having M_e 5.2) suggests that the thrust faults are also seismogenic.We performed a geomorphological analysis to identify and characterise the faults driving the active folds. Our approach assumes that anomalous drainage patterns and deformed Middle-Late Pleistocene alluvial and coastal terraces are indicators of the vertical component of tectonic strain. We identified, mapped and correlated with sea-level fluctuations a sequence of alluvial and coastal terraces. Longitudinal profiles of six rivers (Conca, Foglia, Metauro, Cesano, Misa, and Esino) show that terraces (1) consistently converge downstream, suggesting that they result from regional uplift that dies out near the coast, and (2) some are slightly warped where they cross anticline axes. We interpreted as coastal terraces several land-surface remnants arranged parallel to the present coastline. Lower remnants clearly top off gently landward-tilted coastal deposits. Reconstructed coastal terraces also seem to be tectonically warped.Our results help characterise the geometry and segmentation of a system that generated the largest earthquakes of the region and suggest the loci of potential seismic gaps. We conclude that the earthquake potential of the densely populated northern Marche coastal belt may be substantially higher than currently estimated.     

Controls on the lateral channel-migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse non-cohesive sediment

Lateral movements of alluvial river channels control the extent and reworking rates of alluvial fans, floodplains, deltas, and alluvial sections of bedrock rivers. These lateral movements can occur by gradual channel migration or by sudden changes in channel position (avulsions). Whereas models exist for rates of river avulsion, we lack a detailed understanding of the rates of lateral channel migration on the scale of a channel belt. In a two-step process, we develop here an expression for the lateral migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse, non-cohesive sediment. On the basis of photographic and topographic data from laboratory experiments of braided channels performed under constant external boundary conditions, we first explore the impact of autogenic variations of the channel-system geometry (i.e. channel-bank heights, water depths, channel-system width, and channel slope) on channel-migration rates. In agreement with theoretical expectations, we find that, under such constant boundary conditions, the laterally reworked volume of sediment is constant and lateral channel-migration rates scale inversely with the channel-bank height. Furthermore, when channel-bank heights are accounted for, lateral migration rates are independent of the remaining channel geometry parameters. These constraints allow us, in a second step, to derive two alternative expressions for lateral channel-migration rates under different boundary conditions using dimensional analysis. Fits of a compilation of laboratory experiments to these expressions suggest that, for a given channel bank-height, migration rates are strongly sensitive to water discharges and more weakly sensitive to sediment discharges. In addition, external perturbations, such as changes in sediment and water discharges or base level fall, can indirectly affect lateral channel-migration rates by modulating channel-bank heights. © 2019 The Author. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 The Author. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The 12 May 1802 earthquake (N Italy) in its historical and seismological context

The Mw 5.7 earthquake that occurred on 12 May 1802 is the only one with Mw ≥ 5.5 located west of Lake Garda in the central-northern part of the Po Plain, Northern Italy, and the strongest event located in the seismic zone 907 of the ZS9 seismogenic zonation of Italy. Current parametric earthquake catalogs locate the event not far from important cities (e.g., Milan) and to sites where nuclear power plants were to be built in the 1980s or could be built in a near future. Although the earthquake parameters seemed sufficiently well constrained, a detailed investigation of documentary sources was performed, in repositories storing the documents of the Napoleonic departments to which the area affected by the earthquake belonged at that time. In the surviving archival series, we found the officers’ correspondence on all the administrative aspects raised by the earthquake. The newly collected records allowed the authors to significantly increase the number of macroseismic intensity data, including new observations in the most damaged area. The results have been then interpreted in terms of both Mercalli–Cancani–Sieberg and EMS98 macroseismic scales. The earthquake parameters were derived applying two different methods in order to get two independent estimates. Earthquake location is confirmed, although the still scarce data available in the area to the east of the epicenter do not permit to reduce the uncertainty to a minimum. According to the Boxer method, the magnitude is now slightly higher, and the source model shows a good agreement with the tectonic setting of the area.     

Reliability of the automatic procedures for locating earthquakes in southwestern Alps and northern Apennines (Italy)

Reliable automatic procedure for locating earthquake in quasi-real time is strongly needed for seismic warning system, earthquake preparedness, and producing shaking maps. The reliability of an automatic location algorithm is influenced by several factors such as errors in picking seismic phases, network geometry, and velocity model uncertainties. The main purpose of this work is to investigate the performances of different automatic procedures to choose the most suitable one to be applied for the quasi-real-time earthquake locations in northwestern Italy. The reliability of two automatic-picking algorithms (one based on the Characteristic Function (CF) analysis, CF picker, and the other one based on the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC), AIC picker) and two location methods (“Hypoellipse” and “NonLinLoc” codes) is analysed by comparing the automatically determined hypocentral coordinates with reference ones. Reference locations are computed by the “Hypoellipse” code considering manually revised data and tested using quarry blasts. The comparison is made on a dataset composed by 575 seismic events for the period 2000–2007 as recorded by the Regional Seismic network of Northwestern Italy. For P phases, similar results, in terms of both amount of detected picks and magnitude of travel time differences with respect to manual picks, are obtained applying the AIC and the CF picker; on the contrary, for S phases, the AIC picker seems to provide a significant greater number of readings than the CF picker. Furthermore, the “NonLinLoc” software (applied to a 3D velocity model) is proved to be more reliable than the “Hypoellipse” code (applied to layered 1D velocity models), leading to more reliable automatic locations also when outliers (wrong picks) are present.     

Improved 2-D attenuation analysis for Northern Italy using a merged dataset from selected regional seismic networks

A merged, high-quality waveform dataset from different seismic networks has been used to improve our understanding of lateral seismic attenuation for Northern Italy. In a previous study on the same region, Morasca et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98:1936–1946, 2008) were able to resolve only a small area due to limited data coverage. For this reason, the interpretation of the attenuation anomalies was difficult given the complexity of the region and the poor resolution of the available data. In order to better understand the lateral changes in the crustal structure and thickness of this region, we selected 770 earthquakes recorded by 54 stations for a total of almost 16,000 waveforms derived from seismic networks operating totally or partially in Northern Italy. Direct S-wave and coda attenuation images were obtained using an amplitude ratio technique that eliminates source terms from the formulation. Both direct and early-coda amplitudes are used as input for the inversions, and the results are compared. Results were obtained for various frequency bands ranging between 0.3 and 25.0 Hz and in all cases show significant improvement with respect to the previous study since the resolved area has been extended and more crossing paths have been used to image smaller scale anomalies. Quality-factor estimates are consistent with the regional tectonic structure exhibiting a general trend of low attenuation under the Po Plain basin and higher values for the Western Alps and Northern Apennines. The interpretation of the results for the Eastern Alps is not simple, possibly because our resolution for this area is still not adequate to resolve small-scale structures.