Debris flow susceptibility zonation using statistical models in parts of Northwest Indian Himalayas—implementation,validation, and comparative evaluation

Natural Hazards - Debris flows are natural disasters with devastating consequences and frequent recurrence in changing climatic regime of the Indian Himalayas. Therefore, it is necessary to...     

Numerical modelling of rheological properties of landslide debris

Debris flow has caused severe human casualties and economic losses in landslide-prone areas around the globe. A comprehensive understanding of the morphology and deposition mechanisms of debris flows is crucial to delineate the extent of a debris flow hazard. However, due to inherent complex field topography and varying compositions of the flowing debris, coupled with a lack of fundamental understanding about the factors controlling the geomaterial flow, interparticle interactions and its final settlement resulted in a limited understanding of the flow behaviour of the landslide debris. In this study, a physical model was set up in the laboratory to simulate and calibrate the debris flow using PFC, a distinct element modelling-based software. After calibration, a case study of the Varunavat landslide was taken to validate the developed numerical model. Following validation with an acceptable level of confidence, several models were generated to evaluate the effect of slope height, slope angle, slope profile, and grain size distribution of the dislodged geomaterial in the rheological properties of debris flow. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the landslide debris flow was performed. Finally, the utility of retaining wall and their effect on debris flow is also studied with different retaining wall positions along the slope surface.

     

Seismic source characteristics in Kachchh and Saurashtra regions of Western India: <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value and fractal dimension mapping of aftershock sequences

Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M _w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D _c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D _c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D _c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D _c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D _c-values in both the tectonic regions.     

Stochastic finite-fault modeling of M w 5.4 earthquake along Uttarakhand–Nepal border

Natural Hazards - In this work, an attempt has been made to simulate strong ground motion of M w 5.4 earthquake in Kumaun region of Uttarakhand. The simulation is based on modified stochastic...     

Coda wave attenuation characteristics for Kumaon and Garhwal Himalaya,India

Natural Hazards - Uttarakhand Himalayas are among one of the most seismically active continental regions of the world. The Himalayan belt in this region is divided into Kumaon and Garhwal Himalaya....     

Effect of azimuthal coverage of an earthquake on moment tensor solutions estimated by waveform inversion

The purposes of this seismological investigation are to understand and describe the effect of decrease in the azimuthal coverage of an earthquake on moment tensor solution estimated by waveform inversion. It will be very useful and worthwhile as mostly seismological networks are sparse and in case when only one or two station data are available. In this work, we have used two moderate earthquakes, 21 September 2009 (near Uttarakashi) and 3 May 2010 (near Ghansali). The waveform inversion has been carried using ISOLA software. The moment tensor is first estimated by using all station data and then by removing the stations so that the azimuthal coverage changes. The results show that strike of both nodal planes is varying with the change in azimuthal coverage. However, the slip and dip of both nodal planes remain quite stable against the variation in azimuthal coverage for these two earthquakes analyzed. The effect of decrease in the azimuthal coverage showed increase in double-couple percentage (DC %) and decrease in compensated linear vector decomposition (CLVD %). The other focal parameters such as T-axis azimuth, P-axis azimuth, T-axis plunge, and P-axis plunge have been found stable against the variation in azimuth coverage. The study also demonstrates that the moment tensor solutions obtained from waveform inversion using single station are almost similar to those estimated using maximum azimuthal coverage data and by polarity inversion.     

Soil characterization based on land cover heterogeneity over a tropical landscape: an integrated approach using earth observation data-sets

Soil is a vital part of the natural environment and is always responding to changes in environmental factors, along with the influences of anthropogenic factors and land use changes. The long-term change in soil properties will result in change in soil health and fertility, and hence the soil productivity. Hence, the main aim of this paper focuses on the analysis of land use/land cover (LULC) change pattern in spatial and temporal perspective and to present its impact on soil properties in the Merawu catchment over the period of 18?years. Post classification change detection was performed to quantify the decadal changes in historical LULC over the periods of 1991, 2001 and 2009. The pixel to pixel comparison method was used to detect the LULC of the area. The key LULC types were selected for investigation of soil properties. Soil samples were analysed in situ to measure the physicochemical soil properties. The results of this study show remarkable changes in LULC in the period of 18?years. The effect of land cover change on soil properties, soil compaction and soil strength was found to be significant at a level of <0.05.     

Land quality index assessment for agricultural purpose using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)

In this study, an attempt has been made to apply Remote Sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) to determine land quality for agriculture purpose using analytic hierarchy process technique. In this study, various thematic layers were used like organic matter content, soil texture, soil depth, soil pH, soil P, soil K, geomorphology, run-off potential, slope and land use/land cover to assess the land quality index of the study area for the agriculture purpose which were generated in the RS and GIS environment. The study area can be divided into four zones, viz. high quality, moderately quality, marginally quality and low quality according to their suitability of land quality for agriculture purpose. It was found that about 39.09, 31.24, 20.41 and 9.26% of the study area falls under high quality zone, moderately quality, marginally quality and low quality zone, respectively, for agricultural purpose.     

TropFlux wind stresses over the tropical oceans: evaluation and comparison with other products

In this paper, we present TropFlux wind stresses and evaluate them against observations along with other widely used daily air-sea momentum flux products (NCEP, NCEP2, ERA-I and QuikSCAT). TropFlux wind stresses are computed from the COARE v3.0 algorithm, using bias and amplitude corrected ERA-I input data and an additional climatological gustiness correction. The wind stress products are evaluated against dependent data from the TAO/TRITON, PIRATA and RAMA arrays and independent data from the OceanSITES mooring networks. Wind stress products are more consistent amongst each other than surface heat fluxes, suggesting that 10 m-winds are better constrained than near-surface thermodynamical parameters (2 m-humidity and temperature) and surface downward radiative fluxes. QuikSCAT overestimates wind stresses away from the equator, while NCEP and NCEP2 underestimate wind stresses, especially in the equatorial Pacific. QuikSCAT wind stress quality is strongly affected by rain under the Inter Tropical Convergence Zones. ERA-I and TropFlux display the best agreement with in situ data, with correlations >0.93 and rms-differences <0.012 Nm^?2. TropFlux wind stresses exhibit a small, but consistent improvement (at all timescales and most locations) over ERA-I, with an overall 17 % reduction in root mean square error. ERA-I and TropFlux agree best with long-term mean zonal wind stress observations at equatorial latitudes. All products tend to underestimate the zonal wind stress seasonal cycle by ~20 % in the western and central equatorial Pacific. TropFlux and ERA-I equatorial zonal wind stresses have clearly the best phase agreement with mooring data at intraseasonal and interannual timescales (correlation of ~0.9 versus ~0.8 at best for any other product), with TropFlux correcting the ~13 % underestimation of ERA-I variance at both timescales. For example, TropFlux was the best at reproducing westerly wind bursts that played a key role in the 1997–1998 El Niño onset. Hence, we recommend the use of TropFlux for studies of equatorial ocean dynamics.     

Impacts of enhanced CCN on the organization of convection and recent reduced counts of monsoon depressions

Monsoon depressions, that form during the Indian summer monsoon season (June to September) are known to be baroclinic disturbances (horizontal scale 2,000–3,000 km) and are driven by deep convection that carries a very large vertical slope towards cold air aloft in the upper troposphere. Deep convection is nearly always organized around the scale of these depressions. In the maintenance of the monsoon depression the generation of eddy kinetic energy on the scale of the monsoon depression is largely governed by the “in scale” covariance of heating and temperature and of vertical velocity and temperature over the region of the monsoon depression. There are normally about 6–8 monsoon depressions during a summer monsoon season. Recent years 2009, 2010 and 2011 saw very few (around 1, 0 and 1 per season respectively). The best numerical models such as those from ECMWF and US (GFS) carried many false alarms in their 3–5 day forecasts, more like 6–8 disturbances. Even in recent years with fewer observed monsoon depressions a much larger number of depressions is noted in ECMWF forecasts. These are fairly comprehensive models that carry vast data sets (surface and satellite based), detailed data assimilation, and are run at very high resolutions. The monsoon depression is well resolved by these respective horizontal resolutions in these models (at 15 and 35 km). These models carry complete and detailed physical parameterizations. The false alarms in their forecasts leads us to suggest that some additional important ingredient may be missing in these current best state of the art models. This paper addresses the effects of pollution for the enhancement of cloud condensation nuclei and the resulting disruption of the organization of convection in monsoon depressions. Our specific studies make use of a high resolution mesoscale model (WRF/CHEM) to explore the impacts of the first and second aerosol indirect effects proposed by Twomey and Albrecht. We have conducted preliminary studies including examination of the evolution of radar reflectivity (computed inversely from the model hydrometeors) for normal and enhanced CCN effects (arising from enhanced monsoon pollution). The time lapse histories show a major disruption in the organization of convection of the monsoon depressions on the time scale of a week to 10 days in these enhanced CCN scenarios.