Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard along transportation lines using historical records

In this paper, a quantitative landslide hazard model is presented for transportation lines, with an example for a road and railroad alignment, in parts of Nilgiri hills in southern India. The data required for the hazard assessment were obtained from historical records available for a 21-year period from 1987 to 2007. A total of 901 landslides from cut slopes along the railroad and road alignment were included in the inventory. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, and run-out distance. To calculate landslide hazard, we estimated the total number of individual landslides per kilometer of the (rail) road for different return periods, based on the relationship between past landslides (recorded in our database) and triggering events. These were multiplied by the probability that the landslides belong to a given magnitude class. This gives the hazard for a given return period expressed as the number of landslides of a given magnitude class per kilometer of (rail) road. The relationship between the total number of landslides and the return period was established using a Gumbel distribution model, and the probability of landslide magnitude was obtained from frequency–volume statistics. The results of the analysis indicate that the total number of landslides, from 1- to 50-year return period, varies from 56 to 197 along the railroad and from 14 to 82 along the road. In total, 18 hazard scenarios were generated using the three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The hazard scenarios derived from the model form the basis for future direct and indirect landslide risk analysis along the transportation lines. The model was validated with landslides that occurred in the year 2009.     

Late Cambrian microbial build-ups,Llano Area,Central Texas: A three-phase morphological evolution

Although Late Cambrian microbial build-ups were recognized in the Point Peak Member of the Wilberns Formation in Central Texas (USA) nearly 70 years ago, only a few studies focused specifically on the build-ups themselves. This study focuses on the interpretation of the regional (15 measured sections described in literature representing an area of 8000 km²) and local (field and drone photogrammetry studies in a 25 km² area from within south Mason County) microbial build-up occurrence, describes their growth phases and details their interactions with the surrounding inter-build-up sediments. The study establishes the occurrence of microbial build-ups in the lower and upper Point Peak members (the Point Peak Member is informally broken up into the lower Point Peak and the upper Point Peak members separated by Plectotrophia zone). The lower Point Peak Member consists of three <1 m thick microbial bioherms and biostrome units, in addition to heterolithic and skeletal/ooid grainstone and packstone beds. One, up to 14 m thick, microbial unit associated with inter-build-up skeletal and ooid grainstone and packstone beds, intercalated with mixed siliciclastic–carbonate silt beds, characterizes the upper Point Peak member. The microbial unit in the upper Point Peak member displays a three-phase growth evolution, from an initial colonization phase on flat based, rip-up clast lenses, to a second aggradation and lateral expansion phase, into a third well-defined capping phase. The ultimate demise of the microbial build-ups is interpreted to have been triggered by an increase of water turbidity caused by a sudden influx of fine siliciclastics. The lower Point Peak member represents inner ramp shallow subtidal and intertidal facies and the upper Point Peak member corresponds to mid-outer ramp subtidal facies. Understanding the morphological architecture and depositional context of these features is of importance for identifying signatures of early life on Earth.     

Clay mineralogical studies on Bijawars of the Sonrai basin: Palaeoenvironmental implications and inferences on the uranium mineralization

Clays associated with the Precambrian unconformity-related (sensu lato) uranium mineralization that occur along fractures of Rohini carbonate, Bandai sandstone and clay-organic rich black carbonaceous Gorakalan shale of the Sonrai Formation from Bijawar Group is significant. Nature and structural complexity of these clays have been studied to understand depositional mechanism and palaeoenvironmental conditions responsible for the restricted enrichment of uranium in the Sonrai basin. Clays (<2 μm fraction) separated from indurate sedimentary rocks by disaggregation, chemical treatment and centrifugation were examined using X-ray Diffraction (XRD) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Presence of tv-1M type illite is inferred from the Rohini and Bandai Members of the Sonrai Formation, indicative of high fluid/rock interaction and super-saturation state of the fluids available in proximity with the uranium mineralization. It is observed that the Sonrai Formation is characterized by kaolinite > chlorite > illite > smectite mineral assemblages, whereas, Solda Formation contains kaolinite > illite > chlorite clays. It has been found that the former mineral assemblage resulted from the alteration process is associated with the uranium mineralization and follow progressive reaction series, indicating palaeoenvironmental (cycles of tropical humid to semi-arid/arid) changes prevailed during maturation of the Sonrai basin. The hydrothermal activity possibly associated with Kurrat volcanics is accountable for the clay mineral alterations.     

Age and geochemistry of the Newania dolomite carbonatites, India: implications for the source of primary carbonatite magma

The Newania carbonatite complex of India is one of the few dolomite-dominated carbonatites of the world. Intruding into Archean basement gneisses, the rocks of the complex have undergone limited diversification and are not associated with any alkaline silicate rock. Although the magmatic nature of the complex was generally accepted, its age of emplacement had remained equivocal because of the disturbed nature of radioisotope systems. Many questions about the nature of its mantle source and mode of origin had remained unanswered because of lack of geochemical and isotopic data. Here, we present results of our effort to date the complex using ¹⁴⁷Sm–¹⁴³Nd, ²⁰⁷Pb–²⁰⁶Pb and ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating techniques. We also present mineral chemistry, major and trace element geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotopic ratio data for these carbonatites. Our age data reveal that the complex was emplaced at ~1,473 Ma and parts of it were affected by a thermal event at ~904 Ma. The older ²⁰⁷Pb–²⁰⁶Pb ages reported here (~2.4 Ga) and by one earlier study (~2.3 Ga; Schleicher et al. Chem Geol 140:261–273, 1997) are deemed to be a result of heterogeneous incorporation of crustal Pb during the post-emplacement thermal event. The thermal event had little effect on many magmatic signatures of these rocks, such as its dolomite–magnesite–ankerite–Cr-rich magnetite–magnesio-arfvedsonite–pyrochlore assemblage, mantle like δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O and typical carbonatitic trace element patterns. Newania carbonatites show fractional crystallization trend from high-Mg to high-Fe through high-Ca compositions. The least fractionated dolomite carbonatites of the complex possess very high Mg# (≥80) and have similar major element oxide contents as that of primary carbonatite melts experimentally produced from peridotitic sources. In addition, lower rare earth element (and higher Sr) contents than a typical calcio-carbonatite and mantle like Nb/Ta ratios indicate that the primary magma for the complex was a magnesio-carbonatite melt and that it was derived from a carbonate bearing mantle. The Sr–Nd isotopic data suggest that the primary magma originated from a metasomatized lithospheric mantle. Trace element modelling confirms such an inference and suggests that the source was a phlogopite bearing mantle, located within the garnet stability zone.     

Gravel fabric in a sub-Himalayan braided stream

Data on the fabric properties of gravels have been collected at 10 locations over a distance of 27 km from the Chakki River — a braided channel of the Beas River system. The imbrication of AB-planes reveals a close correspondence with the channel direction; the deviations seldom exceed 30°. Increase in sinuosity and the existence of subsidiary channels contribute, at some locations, to larger deviations. Imbrication directions tend to be modified because of the influence of local channels which develop temporarily on the bar surfaces.A current-normal mode exists for the A-axis orientation data. Bimodal distributions are recognised and attributed to shifting flow conditions. Variance values are low for both the imbrication and A-axis data. The range in mean values of the dip of AB-planes is between 22.6° and 37.6° with s = 8° to 14°. The mean values of plunge of the A-axis vary from 2.9° to 13.2° with s = 3.4° to 12.69°. There is a marked decrease in plunge of the A-axis in the downstream direction in the Chakki River.A particle size versus orientation approach indicates that, irrespective of size, there is a strong upcurrent imbrication. Longitudinal alignment of particles in the smaller size intervals is not supported by the data obtained in this study. A particle shape versus orientation approach reveals that the A-axis orientation is not dependent on particle shape. The A-axis fabric patterns of both tabular and bladed clasts show a peripheral circular arrangement of the maxima, the bisectrix of which points in a current-normal direction. Orientation patterns do not reflect any control in terms of the lithic composition of clasts.     

Development of Water Quality Index (WQI) model for the groundwater in Tirupur district, South India

Groundwater quality of the Tiruppur district in Tamil Nadu was investigated in this study to develop a Water Quality Index (WQI) model. Hydrochemical parameters showed tremendous variation in certain location over the seasons. Ionic chemistry of groundwater suggested that textile industries and rock-water interaction are major threats to the water quality. Analysis of Na and Ca concentration indicates that direct as well as the inverse cation exchange controls the natural cation chemistry. NO3 concentration shows that the pre-monsoon samples were affected by the fertilizer usage in agricultural fields. Na-Cl type of the water was dominant throughout the study area except few locations. WQI showed that 55% of the pre-monsoon samples and the 47% of the post monsoon samples were classified as poor/very poor/unsuitable for drinking category. Leaching of the textile waste and their transport to the downstream was well observed during the post-monsoon season. The specific contribution of river Noyyal in the transport of the solutes to the discharge zones was proved by the hydrochemistry of the samples.     

On longitudinal vibration of an elastic bar in a magnetic field

Summary The equations of elasticity, electromagnetic equations of Maxwell have been applied to investigate the longitudinal vibration of a partly homogenous, partly inhomogeneous elastic bar permeated by a magnetic field.     

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.     

A geospatial analysis of Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath glacial lakes in the Chandra Basin,Western Himalaya

Geospatial studies carried out in two major proglacial lakes of Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath (Chandra Basin, Western Himalaya) showed substantial expansion in their area and volume over the last four decades (1971–2014). The linear and areal expansions for the lakes Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath were 1889, 1509 m and 1, 0.6 km², respectively. The results show that increased melting of the feeder glaciers over this period is major contributor to expand the volumes approximately 20 times of both the lakes Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath. This expansion of lakes volume of Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath from 3.4 × 10⁶ to 67.7 × 10⁶ and 1.5 × 10⁶ to 27.5 × 10⁶ m³, respectively, is quite significance in terms of hazards generated from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). This kind of climate change induced increase in the rate of glacial melting is a cause of concern, as the Himalaya Mountains may turn out to be vulnerable to natural hazards like GLOF.