The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

棉铃虫发生发展与气候条件的关系研究进展

棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera 属鳞翅目夜蛾科，是一种世界性的重大害虫，在世界各地均有分布。因其具有远距离迁飞，繁殖力强等特点，条件适宜时常大面积暴发成灾，给农业生产带来较大损失。摸清棉铃虫生活习性、种群变化规律是棉铃虫防治的前提条件。由于棉铃虫是变温昆虫，气候条件对其生长发育、成灾机制等产生极大影响。因此，本文系统综述了气候变暖对棉铃虫影响的研究进展，包括棉铃虫生长发育、体色变化、繁殖、滞育、飞行、越冬、与作物的互作关系等方面，并对未来研究重点进行了展望。以期对棉铃虫的综合治理提供理论依据。     

Simulations for multi-object spectrograph planet surveys

Radial velocity surveys for extrasolar planets generally require substantial amounts of large telescope time in order to monitor a sufficient number of stars. Two of the aspects which can limit such surveys are the single-object capabilities of the spectrograph, and an inefficient observing strategy for a given observing window. In addition, the detection rate of extrasolar planets using the radial velocity method has thus far been relatively linear with time. With the development of various multi-object Doppler survey instruments, there is growing potential to dramatically increase the detection rate using the Doppler method. Several of these instruments have already begun usage in large-scale surveys for extrasolar planets, such as Fibre Large Array Multi Element Spectrograph (FLAMES) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and Keck Exoplanet Tracker (ET) on the Sloan 2.5-m wide-field telescope.
In order to plan an effective observing strategy for such a program, one must examine the expected results based on a given observing window and target selection. We present simulations of the expected results from a generic multi-object survey based on calculated noise models and sensitivity for the instrument and the known distribution of exoplanetary system parameters. We have developed code for automatically sifting and fitting the planet candidates produced by the survey to allow for fast follow-up observations to be conducted. The techniques presented here may be applied to a wide range of multi-object planet surveys.     

Coupled surface water–groundwater model and its application in the arid Shiyang River basin,China

The planning and management of water resources in the Shiyang River basin, China require a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream use on water supply reliabilities and improving many environment‐related problems such as soil desertification induced by recent water‐related human activities. A coupled model, integrating rule‐based lumped surface water model and distributed three‐dimensional groundwater flow model, has been established to investigate surface water and groundwater management scenarios that may be designed to restore the deteriorated ecological environment of the downstream portion of the Shiyang River basin. More than 66% of the water level among 24 observation wells have simulation error less than 1·0 m. The overall trend of the temporal changes of simulated and observed surface runoff at the Caiqi gauging station remains almost the same. The calibration was considered satisfactory. Initial frameworks for water allocation, including agricultural water‐saving projects, water diversion within the basin and inter‐basin water transfer, reducing agricultural irrigation area and surface water use instead of groundwater exploitation at the downstream were figured out that would provide a rational use of water resources throughout the whole basin. Sixteen scenarios were modelled to find out the most appropriate management strategies. The results showed that in the two selected management options, the groundwater budget at the Minqin basin was about 1·4 × 10⁸ m³/a and the ecological environment would be improved significantly, but the deficit existed at the Wuwei basin and the number was about 0·8 × 10⁸ m³/a. Water demand for domestic, industry and urban green area would be met in the next 30 years, but the water shortage for meeting the demand of agricultural water use in the Shiyang River basin was about 2·2 × 10⁸ m³/a. It is suggested that more inter‐basin water transfer should be required to obtain sustainable water resource use in the Shiyang River basin. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Member 1 of Yongji Formation (Ey1) sedimentary characteristics and its origin analysis in Yitong Graben

Ey1 has the unique desultory-weak or gap seismic reflection structure as its one of the most important characteristics. It is very important to clarify sedimentary characteristics and its origin for Yitong Graben and its sedimentary facies and tectonic evolution. On the basis of the research of core analyses, well logging data analyses, sedimentary facies analyses and seismic reflection structure analyses, the authors have concluded the sedimentary characteristics of Ey1, and have carried out Ey1 sedimentary environments and its origin. The result shows that Ey1 desultory-weak or gap seismic reflection may be a series of small scale secondary sediment fans superimposition.     

Numerical modeling of secondary migration and its applications to Chang-6 Member of Yanchang Formation (Upper Triassic), Longdong area,Ordos Basin,China

Mathematic modeling, established on the basis of physical experiments, is becoming an increasingly important tool in oil and gas migration studies. This technique is based on the observation that hydrocarbon migration tends to take relative narrow pathways. A mathematical model of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation is constructed using the percolation theory. It is then calibrated using physical experimental results, and is tested under a variety of conditions, to understand the applicability of the model in different migration cases. Through modeling, dynamic conditions of large-scale migration pathways within homogeneous formations can be evaluated. Basin-scale hydrocarbon migration pathways and their characteristics are analyzed during the model application to the Chang-8 Member of the Triassic Yanchang Formation in Longdong area of Ordos Basin. In heterogeneous formations, spatial changes in fluid potential determine the direction of secondary migration, and heterogeneity controls the characteristics and geometry of secondary migration pathways.

     

Geochronology and Geochemistry of Ore-related Granitoids in the Giant Gariatong Rb Deposit, Tibet and Implications for Rb Metallogeny in China

Rubidium (Rb) deposits mostly occur in the South China and Central Asia orogenic belts and are often closely associated with highly differentiated granites. This study investigates a newly-discovered giant Rb deposit at Gariatong in the Central Lhasa terrane in Tibet. Detailed field studies and logging data revealed that the Rb mineralization mainly occurs in monzogranite and is related to greisenization. LA-ICP-MS U-Pb dating of zircon yielded ages of 19.1 ± 0.2 Ma and 19.0 ± 0.2 Ma for greisenized monzogranite and fresh monzogranite, respectively. The monzogranites are characterized as strongly peraluminous, with high contents of SiO2, Al2O3, K2O and Na2O as well as a high differentiation index. They are enriched in light rare earth and large ion lithophile elements with signi?cant negative Eu anomalies and depleted high field-strength elements. Petrological and geochemical features of these ore-related monzogranites suggest that they are highly fractionated S-type granites, derived from remelting of crustal materials in a post-collisional setting. The geochemistry of zircon and apatite points to a low oxygen fugacity of the ore-related monzogranite during the magma’s evolution. The discovery of the Gariatong Rb deposit suggests that the Central Lhasa terrane may be an important region for rare metal mineralization.     

Evaluating the role of climate and tectonics during non-steady incision of the Yellow River: evidence from a 1.24 Ma terrace record near Lanzhou,China

The competing roles of bedrock uplift and climatic change in the formation of fluvial terraces remain uncertain. Most of recent studies have attributed terrace formation to climatic changes and held that, even in tectonically active settings, climate variations control cycles of terrace planation and abandonment. Based on field investigations of loess-paleosol sequences, magnetostratigraphy and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, we develop a new chronology for a spectacular flight of terraces along the Yellow River near Lanzhou, China over past 1.24 Ma. All the terraces are strikingly similar in that they have several meters of paleosol developed directly above fluvial deposits on the terrace treads, suggesting that the abandonment of each terrace due to river incision occurs during the transition from glacial to interglacial climates. However, the ages of terraces cluster in two relatively short time periods (1.24–0.86 Ma and 0.13 Ma – present). During the intervening time between 0.86 Ma and 0.13 Ma, terraces either did not form or were not preserved. We suggest that this record indicates that rock uplift rates varied through time and influenced terrace formation/preservation. Thus, our results demonstrate the utility of deep chronologic records from fluvial terraces for deconvolving the effects of tectonics and climate on fluvial incision.     

Experimental study of extreme shear stress for shallow flow under simulated rainfall

The raindrop impact and overland flow are two major factors causing soil detachment and particle transportation. In this study, the turbulent characteristics of the shallow rain‐impacted water flow were investigated using a 2‐D fibre‐optic laser Doppler velocimetry (FLDV) and an artificial rainfall simulator. The fluctuating turbulent shear stress was computed using digital data processing techniques. The experimental data showed that the Reynolds shear stress follows a probability distribution with heavy tails. The tail probability increases with an increase of rainfall intensity or raindrop diameter, and it decreases with an increase of Reynolds number. A modified empirical equation was derived using both the raindrop diameter and rainfall intensity as independent variables to provide a better prediction of the Darcy‐Weisbach friction coefficient f under rainfall conditions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

关于太阳厘米-分米波段频谱日像仪研究进展

摘要：在无线电波段进行射电观测是研究太阳的一个十分重要的手段，不同波段的无线电波反映出不同的特性和状态，其辐射频率与环境参数密切相关。当探测出某一频率上的无线电辐射后，即可诊断源区的电子密度或磁场。因此，建设厘米-分米波段频谱日像仪将首次在该波段上实现同时以高空间、高时间和高频率分辨率观测太阳活动的动力学性质，探测日冕大气。对于太阳物理研究具有重要作用。本文介绍该项目的科学意义、技术方案及预研进展情况。