Challenges for hydropower-based nationally determined contributions: a case study for Ecuador

Hydropower is the dominant renewable energy source to date, providing over two-thirds of all renewable electricity globally. For countries with significant hydropower potential, the technology is expected to play a major role in the energy transition needed to meet nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions as laid out in the Paris Agreement. For the Republic of Ecuador, large hydropower is currently considered as the main means for attaining energy security, reducing electricity prices and mitigating GHG emissions in the long-term. However, uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, investment cost overruns and restrictions to untapped resources may challenge the future deployment of hydropower and consequently impact decarbonization efforts for Ecuador’s power sector. To address these questions, a partial equilibrium energy system optimization model for Ecuador (TIMES-EC) is used to simulate alternative electricity capacity expansion scenarios up to 2050. Results show that the share of total electricity supplied by hydropower in Ecuador might vary significantly between 53% to 81% by 2050. Restricting large hydropower due to social-environmental constraints can cause a fourfold increase in cumulative emissions compared to NDC implied levels, while a 25% reduction of hydropower availability due to climate change would cause cumulative emissions to double. In comparison, a more diversified power system (although more expensive) which limits the share of large hydropower and natural gas in favour of other renewables could achieve the expected NDC emission levels. These insights underscore the critical importance of undertaking detailed whole energy system analyses to assess the long-term challenges for hydropower deployment and the trade-offs among power system configuration, system costs and expected GHG emissions in hydropower-dependent countries, states and territories.

Key policy insights

• Ecuador’s hydropower-based NDC is highly vulnerable to the occurrence of a dry climate scenario and restrictions to deployment of large hydropower in the Amazon region.

• Given Ecuador’s seasonal runoff pattern, fossil-fuel or renewable thermoelectric backup will always be required, whatever the amount of hydropower installed.

• Ecuador’s NDC target for the power sector is achievable without the deployment of large hydropower infrastructure, through a more diversified portfolio with non-hydro renewables.

     

Sex change and morphological transitions in a marine ectoparasite

The fitness of parasitic organisms is strongly driven by their ability to infect potential hosts. Although transmission to a host organism is a key component to the parasitic lifestyle, surviving and reproducing within a host poses additional challenges. Cymothoa excisa is a parasitic isopod that infects Atlantic croaker, Micropogonias undulatus, along the Texas coast and has evolved mechanisms to successfully survive and reproduce within its host. Cymothoa excisa is known to exhibit sex‐change strategies but limited information exists on morphological changes, reproductive output and the timing at which sex change becomes optimal. This study collected Atlantic croaker during a 22‐month survey period and identified parasite prevalence and intensity in the host fish population. Infection rates were constant throughout the year at 19.88% and intensity increased through the season up to a maximum of four parasites. Following collection, isopod morphological parameters were quantified for each life stage (including female, transitional, male and juvenile), identifying shape and size transitions through ontogeny and sex change. Transitional C. excisa isopods only occurred when only one isopod was present in a fish, suggesting that isopods change sex from male to female if they are the first to recruit to an uninfected host. As isopods transition to females they have a large increase in size, legs, and pleotelson (which influence fecundity and anchoring ability), whereas the gonopod, eyes and uropod show a reduction (which are no longer needed for swimming and finding hosts). Data suggest that C. excisa sex change is related to the timing of infection and brood size increases with female size and host size. Therefore, it would be advantageous to be the first isopod to infect a host, as it could change into a female and increase reproductive potential. We discuss hypotheses that could explain the mating behavior of parasitic isopods.     

Marine debris collects within the North Pacific Subtropical Convergence Zone

Floating marine debris, particularly derelict fishing gear, is a hazard to fish, marine mammals, turtles, sea birds, coral reefs, and even human activities. To ameliorate the economic and environmental impact of marine debris, we need to efficiently locate and retrieve dangerous debris at sea. Guided by satellite-derived information, we made four flights north of Hawaii in March and April 2005. During these aerial surveys, we observed over 1800 individual pieces of debris, including 122 derelict fishing nets. The largest debris concentrations were found just north of the North Pacific Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF) within the North Pacific Subtropical Convergence Zone (STCZ). Debris densities were significantly correlated with sea-surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla), and the gradient of Chla. A Debris Estimated Likelihood Index (DELI) was developed to predict where high concentrations of debris would be most likely in the North Pacific during spring and early summer.     

Future evolution of bound superclusters in an accelerating Universe

The evolution of marginally bound supercluster-like objects in an accelerating Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) Universe is followed, by means of cosmological simulations, from the present time to an expansion factor   a = 100  . The objects are identified on the basis of the binding density criterion introduced by Dünner et al. Superclusters are identified with the ones whose mass   M > 10¹⁵  h ⁻¹ M_⊙  , the most massive one with   M ∼ 8 × 10¹⁵  h ⁻¹ M_⊙  , comparable to the Shapley supercluster. The spatial distribution of the superclusters remains essentially the same after the present epoch, reflecting the halting growth of the cosmic web as Λ gets to dominate the expansion of the Universe. The same trend can be seen in the stagnation of the development of the mass function of virialized haloes and bound objects. The situation is considerably different when looking at the internal evolution, quantified in terms of their shape, compactness and density profile, and substructure in terms of their multiplicity function. We find a continuing evolution from a wide range of triaxial shapes at   a = 1  to almost perfect spherical shapes at   a = 100  . We also find a systematic trend towards a higher concentration. Meanwhile, we see their substructure gradually disappearing, as the surrounding subclumps fall in and merge to form one coherent, virialized system.     

Andalusite and Na- and Li-rich cordierite in the La Costa pluton, Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina: textural and chemical evidence for a magmatic origin

The La Costa pluton in the Sierra de Velasco (NW Argentina) consists of S-type granitoids that can be grouped into three igneous facies: the alkali-rich Santa Cruz facies (SCF, SiO₂ ~67 wt%) distinguished by the presence of andalusite and Na- and Li-rich cordierite (Na₂O = 1.55–1.77 wt% and Li₂O = 0.14–0.66 wt%), the Anillaco facies (SiO₂ ~74 wt%) with a significant proportion of Mn-rich garnet, and the Anjullón facies (SiO₂ ~75 wt%) with abundant albitic plagioclase. The petrography, mineral chemistry and whole-rock geochemistry of the SCF are compatible with magmatic crystallization of Na- and Li-rich cordierite, andalusite and muscovite from the peraluminous magma under moderate P–T conditions (~1.9 kbar and ca. 735°C). The high Li content of cordierite in the SCF is unusual for granitic rocks of intermediate composition.     

U-Pb Zircon Geochronology with an Integrated LA-ICP-MS Microanalytical Workstation: Achievements in Precision and Accuracy

Laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is a microanalytical tool especially suitable for providing fast and precise U-Pb geochronological results on zircon grains. A new 193 nm excimer laser adapted to a micromachining workstation, equipped with a newly designed two-volume ablation cell and coupled with a quadrupole ICP-MS, is presented here. The system was tuned routinely to achieve sensitivities in the range of 3000 cps/μg g⁻¹ for ²³⁸U (< 2% RSD), with a 34 μm spot size, at 5 Hz and ∼ 8 J cm⁻², while ablating the NIST SRM 612 glass reference material. The system was capable of providing fast (< 1.5 minutes each analysis) and precise (generally < 1.5% 1s errors) ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U zircon ages. The ages of widely used reference material zircons (Plesovice, 337 Ma; Temora, 416 Ma; R33, 418 Ma; Sri Lanka, 564 Ma; 91500, 1065 Ma) could be precisely matched, with an accuracy on isotopic ratios that ranged from ∼ 2 to ∼ 6%, depending on the homogeneity of the natural reference materials.     

The Na i D resonance lines in main-sequence late-type stars

We study the sodium D lines (D1: 5895.92 Å; D2: 5889.95 Å) in late-type dwarf stars. The stars have spectral types between F6 and M5.5 ( B − V between 0.457 and 1.807) and metallicity between  [Fe/H]=−0.82  and 0.6. We obtained medium-resolution echelle spectra using the 2.15-m telescope at the Argentinian observatory Complejo Astronómico El Leoncito (CASLEO). The observations have been performed periodically since 1999. The spectra were calibrated in wavelength and in flux. A definition of the pseudo-continuum level is found for all our observations. We also define a continuum level for calibration purposes. The equivalent width of the D lines is computed in detail for all our spectra and related to the colour index ( B − V ) of the stars. When possible, we perform a careful comparison with previous studies. Finally, we construct a spectral index  ( R '_D)  as the ratio between the flux in the D lines and the bolometric flux. We find that, once corrected for the photospheric contribution, this index can be used as a chromospheric activity indicator in stars with a high level of activity. Additionally, we find that combining some of our results, we obtain a method to calibrate in flux stars of unknown colour.     

The Canary Eddy Corridor: A major pathway for long-lived eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic

We report, from remote sensing and in situ observations, a new type of permanent structure in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean, that we call the “Canary Eddy Corridor”. The phenomenon, is a zonal long-lived (>3 months) mesoscale eddy corridor, whose source is the flow perturbation of the Canary Current and the Trade Winds at the Canary Islands. The latitudinal range of the corridor spans 22°N–29°N and extends from the Canaries to at least 32ºW, near the mid-Atlantic. This is the main region of long-lived westward-propagating eddies in the subtropical northeast Atlantic. From a age-distribution study we observe that at least 10% of mesoscale eddies in this region are long-lived, with a dominance of anticyclones over cyclones. Another four westward-propagating eddy corridors were also detected: two small corridors north and south of the Azores Front; a small zonal corridor located near 31ºN, south of the island of Madeira; and a small corridor located near the Cape Blanc giant filament. The existence of these corridors may change, at least for the northeastern subtropical Atlantic, the general idea that mesoscale eddies are disorganized, ubiquitous structures in the ocean. The Canary Eddy Corridor constitutes a direct zonal pathway that conveys water mass- and biogeochemical properties offshore from the Canary Island/Northwest Africa upwelling system, and may be seen as a recurrent offshore pump of organic matter and carbon to the oligotrophic ocean interior. Estimates of volume and mass transport indicate that Canary Eddy Corridor westward transport is more than one-fourth of the southward transport of the Canary Current. The westward transport of kinetic energy by the eddies of the Canary Corridor is as important as the southward transport by the Canary Current. The total primary production related to the Corridor may be as high as the total primary production of the northwest Africa upwelling system for the same latitude range.