Configuring the neighbourhood effect in irregular cellular automata based models

Cellular automata (CA) models have been widely employed to simulate urban growth and land use change. In order to represent urban space more realistically, new approaches to CA models have explored the use of vector data instead of traditional regular grids. However, the use of irregular CA-based models brings new challenges as well as opportunities. The most strongly affected factor when using an irregular space is neighbourhood. Although neighbourhood definition in an irregular environment has been reported in the literature, the question of how to model the neighbourhood effect remains largely unexplored. In order to shed light on this question, this paper proposed the use of spatial metrics to characterise and measure the neighbourhood effect in irregular CA-based models. These metrics, originally developed for raster environments, namely the enrichment factor and the neighbourhood index, were adapted and applied in the irregular space employed by the model. Using the results of these metrics, distance-decay functions were calculated to reproduce the push-and-pull effect between the simulated land uses. The outcomes of a total of 55 simulations (5 sets of different distance functions and 11 different neighbourhood definition distances) were compared with observed changes in the study area during the calibration period. Our results demonstrate that the proposed methodology improves the outcomes of the urban growth simulation model tested and could be applied to other irregular CA-based models.     

Isotopic and Elemental Composition of Marine Macrophytes as Biotracers of Nutrient Recycling Within a Coastal Lagoon in Baja California,Mexico

Nutrient sources of San Quintin Bay, a coastal lagoon affected by coastal upwelling off Baja California (Mexico), were traced using generalized additive (mixed) models (GAMM) to the stable nitrogen isotopic composition, C:N and N content of two co-occurring macrophytes (the macroalgae Ulva spp. and the seagrass Zostera marina). The geochemical tracers followed a spatial trend that partly responded to the long-term nutrient gradient from the ocean towards the interior of the bay. N content in Z. marina and Ulva spp. decreased linearly (while C:N increased) towards the middle section of the bay to concentration levels that indicate potential N limitation for growth. Concurrently midway into the bay (6–9 km), the δ¹⁵N of both macrophytes showed a gradual enrichment in ¹⁵N reflecting progressive denitrification. The spatial pattern of δ¹⁵N and the decrease in C:N of the macrophytes towards the innermost section of the bay indicated an additional nonoceanic source of dissolved nitrogen in this zone. The similarity of the δ¹⁵N pattern of Z. marina and Ulva spp. implies that their δ¹⁵N composition is mainly controlled by the availability of N, in spite of the physiological differences between taxa. A better fit of GAMM to N content and C:N was obtained for Z. marina than for Ulva spp. indicating that the former delineate more steadily and smoothly the influence of upwelling along the spatial gradient. Nonetheless, Ulva spp. may be analyzed in combination with Z. marina to characterize the environmental conditions at the time of sampling.     

A multiresolution strategy for solving landslides using the Particle Finite Element Method

We present an approach for the simulation of landslides using the Particle Finite Element Method of the second generation. In this work, the multiphase nature (granular phase and water) of the phenomenon is considered in a staggered fashion using a single, indeformable Finite Element mesh. A fractional step and a monolithic strategy are used for the water flow and granular phase, respectively. In this way, the maximum accuracy with minimal computational times is reached. The method is completed by adding the interaction terms due to drag and pressure forces, together with a moving mesh strategy to reduce the size of the computational domain.     

Growth pattern and changes in abundance of the endangered bat star Asterina stellifera

The sea star Asterina stellifera has declined during the last decade and is currently abundant only in the southern limit of its former range. We surveyed this population over 5 years to model individual growth and explore the relationship of changes in local abundance with variation in environmental factors and the reproductive status of individuals. Our results show that A. stellifera is a species with slow growth and a relatively long lifespan. Contrary to expectations for temperate species, growth rates were fairly constant through the year and therefore models including seasonal oscillations were inappropriate. The abundance of this species increased significantly from early spring to early summer, likely due to augmented activity and small‐scale aggregation during the reproductive season that affected our estimates of abundance. No significant recruitment occurred during the 5 years studied. The lack of recruitment during long periods and the slow individual growth rates make A. stellifera particularly vulnerable to local extinction. This study was performed prior to the arrival in the study area of the invasive kelp Undaria pinnatifida and side‐gilled sea slug Pleurobranchaea maculata, species that threaten the community structure where A. stellifera lives. Therefore, the information reported here will be essential to assessing the impacts of these exotic species on this sea star population.     

天然气水合物稳定带内流体压裂计算的程序耦合方法

海洋天然气水合物稳定带气烟囱结构中存在被水合物充填的裂隙, 表明在自然条件下沉积物中曾发生过流体压裂以及相关的流体流动和水合物形成。在水合物稳定带内实施人为的流体压裂工程, 并联合其他方法(如降压或注热)进行水合物开采, 有望提高开采效率。水合物稳定带内, 无论是自然条件下发生的流体压裂过程, 还是人为实施的流体压裂工程, 都存在水合物反应和沉积物裂隙变形之间的耦合响应。当前, 已有不少数值程序对水合物反应与沉积物弹塑性变形的耦合过程进行了定量研究, 但尚没有数值程序能够计算水合物反应和离散裂隙变形之间的耦合过程。文章将TOUGH+Hydrate程序、IC-FERST和Solidity两者的耦合程序进行了进一步耦合, 为水合物稳定带内的流体压裂计算提供了一种耦合计算方法, 同时通过一个算例初步验证了该耦合计算方法的可行性。验证结果表明, 该耦合计算方法经进一步改进后有望应用于定量研究水合物稳定带内的裂隙变形和水合物反应过程。     

Three dimensional elasto‐plastic interface for embedded beam elements with interaction surface for the analysis of lateral loading of piles

This paper presents a numerical formulation for a three dimensional elasto‐plastic interface, which can be coupled with an embedded beam element in order to model its non‐linear interaction with the surrounding solid medium. The formulation is herein implemented for lateral loading of piles but is able to represent soil‐pile interaction phenomena in a general manner for different types of loading conditions or ground movements. The interface is formulated in order to capture localized material plasticity in the soil surrounding the pile within the range of small to moderate lateral displacements. The interface is formulated following two different approaches: (i) in terms of beam degrees of freedoms; and (ii) considering the displacement field of the solid domain. Each of these alternatives has its own advantages and shortcomings, which are discussed in this paper. The paper presents a comparison of the results obtained by means of the present formulation and by other well‐established analysis methods and test results published in the literature. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of streamflow recession between plantations and native forests in small catchments in Central-Southern Chile

In central Chile, many communities rely on water obtained from small catchments in the coastal mountains. Water security for these communities is most vulnerable during the summer dry season and, from 2010 to 2017, rainfall during the dry season was between 20% and 40% below the long-term average. The rate of decrease in stream flow after a rainfall event is a good measure of the risk of flow decreasing below a critical threshold. This risk of low flow can be quantified using a recession coefficient (α) that is the slope of an exponential decay function relating flow to time since rainfall. A mathematical model was used to estimate the recession coefficient (α) for 142 rainstorm events (64 in summer; 78 in winter) in eight monitored catchments between 2008 and 2017. These catchments all have a similar geology and extend from 35 to 39 degrees of latitude south in the coastal range of south-central Chile. A hierarchical cluster analysis was used to test for differences between the mean value of α for different regions and forest types in winter and summer. The value of α did not differ (p < 0.05) between catchments in winter. Some differences were observed during summer and these were attributed to morphological differences between catchments and, in the northernmost catchments, the effect of land cover (native forest and plantation). Moreover, α for catchments with native forest was similar to those with pine plantations, although there was no difference (p < 0.05) between these and Eucalyptus plantations. The recession constant is a well-established method for understanding the effect of climate and disturbance on low flows and baseflows and can enhance local and regional analyses of hydrological processes. Understanding the recession of flow after rainfall in small headwater catchments, especially during summer, is vital for water resources management in areas where the establishment of plantations has occurred in a drying climate.     

What do biphasic flow experiments reveal on the variability of exposure on alluvial fans and which implications for risk assessment result from this?

Sudden avulsions, unexpected channel migrations and backfilling phenomena are autogenic phenomena that can considerably change the propagation patterns of sediment-laden flows on alluvial fans. Once the initial and boundary conditions of the hazard scenario with a given return period are determined, the assessment of the associated exposed areas is based on one numerical, essentially deterministic, process simulation which may not adequately capture the underlying process variability. We generated sediment-laden flows on an experimental alluvial fan by following a “similarity-of-process concept”. Specifically, we considered a convexly shaped alluvial fan model layout featuring a curved guiding channel. As loading conditions, we defined a reference, an increased and a reduced level for the released water volume and the predisposed solid fraction, respectively. Further, we imposed two different stream power regimes and accomplished, for each factor combination, eight experimental runs. The associated exposure areas were recorded by video and mapped in a GIS. We then analysed exposure data and determined exposure probability maps superposing the footprints of the eight repetitions associated with each experimental loading condition. The patterns of exposure referred to the specific loading conditions showed a noticeable variability related to the main effects of the total event volume, the solid fraction, the interactions between them, and the imposed stream power in the feeding channel. Our research suggests that adopting a probabilistic notion of exposure in risk assessment and mitigation is advisable. Further, a major challenge consists in adapting numerical codes to better reflect the stochastics of process propagation for more reliable flood hazard assessments.