Mapping conservation priorities and connectivity pathways under climate change for tropical ecosystems

Climate change and land use conversion are global threats to biodiversity. Protected areas and biological corridors have been historically implemented as biodiversity conservation measures and suggested as tools within planning frameworks to respond to climate change. However, few applications to national protected areas systems considering climate change in tropical countries exist. Our goal is to define new priority areas for biodiversity conservation and biological corridors within an existing protected areas network. We aim at preserving samples of all biodiversity under climate change and facilitate species dispersal to reduce the vulnerability of biodiversity. The analysis was based on a three step strategy: i) protect representative samples of various levels of terrestrial biodiversity across protected area systems given future redistributions under climate change, ii) identify and protect areas with reduced climate velocities where populations could persist for relatively longer periods, and iii) ensure species dispersal between conservation areas through climatic connectivity pathways. The study was integrated into a participatory planning approach for biodiversity conservation in Costa Rica. Results showed that there should be an increase of 11 % and 5 % on new conservation areas and biological corridors respectively. Our approach integrates climate change into the design of a network of protected areas for tropical ecosystems and can be applied to other biodiversity rich areas to reduce the vulnerability of biodiversity to global warming.     

Configuring the neighbourhood effect in irregular cellular automata based models

Cellular automata (CA) models have been widely employed to simulate urban growth and land use change. In order to represent urban space more realistically, new approaches to CA models have explored the use of vector data instead of traditional regular grids. However, the use of irregular CA-based models brings new challenges as well as opportunities. The most strongly affected factor when using an irregular space is neighbourhood. Although neighbourhood definition in an irregular environment has been reported in the literature, the question of how to model the neighbourhood effect remains largely unexplored. In order to shed light on this question, this paper proposed the use of spatial metrics to characterise and measure the neighbourhood effect in irregular CA-based models. These metrics, originally developed for raster environments, namely the enrichment factor and the neighbourhood index, were adapted and applied in the irregular space employed by the model. Using the results of these metrics, distance-decay functions were calculated to reproduce the push-and-pull effect between the simulated land uses. The outcomes of a total of 55 simulations (5 sets of different distance functions and 11 different neighbourhood definition distances) were compared with observed changes in the study area during the calibration period. Our results demonstrate that the proposed methodology improves the outcomes of the urban growth simulation model tested and could be applied to other irregular CA-based models.     

A multiresolution strategy for solving landslides using the Particle Finite Element Method

We present an approach for the simulation of landslides using the Particle Finite Element Method of the second generation. In this work, the multiphase nature (granular phase and water) of the phenomenon is considered in a staggered fashion using a single, indeformable Finite Element mesh. A fractional step and a monolithic strategy are used for the water flow and granular phase, respectively. In this way, the maximum accuracy with minimal computational times is reached. The method is completed by adding the interaction terms due to drag and pressure forces, together with a moving mesh strategy to reduce the size of the computational domain.     

Black hole spin and radio loudness in a Λ cold dark matter universe

We use a combination of a cosmological N -body simulation of the concordance Λ cold dark matter paradigm and a semi-analytic model of galaxy formation to investigate the spin development of central supermassive black holes (BHs) and its relation to the BH host galaxy properties. In order to compute BH spins, we use the α model of Shakura & Sunyaev and consider the King et al. warped disc alignment criterion. The orientation of the accretion disc is inferred from the angular momentum of the source of accreted material, which bears a close relationship to the large-scale structure in the simulation. We find that the final BH spin depends almost exclusively on the accretion history and only weakly on the warped disc alignment. The main mechanisms of BH spin-up are found to be gas cooling processes and disc instabilities, a result that is only partially compatible with Monte Carlo models where the main spin-up mechanisms are major mergers and disc instabilities; the latter results are reproduced when implementing randomly oriented accretion discs in our model. Regarding the BH population, we find that more massive BHs, which are hosted by massive ellipticals, have higher spin values than less massive BHs, hosted by spiral galaxies. We analyse whether gas accretion rates and BH spins can be used as tracers of the radio loudness of active galactic nuclei (AGN). We find that the current observational indications of an increasing trend of radio-loud AGN fractions with stellar and BH mass can be easily obtained when placing lower limits on the BH spin, with a minimum influence from limits on the accretion rates; a model with random accretion disc orientations is unable to reproduce this trend. Our results favour a scenario where the BH spin is a key parameter to separate the radio-loud and radio-quiet galaxy populations.     

Three dimensional elasto‐plastic interface for embedded beam elements with interaction surface for the analysis of lateral loading of piles

This paper presents a numerical formulation for a three dimensional elasto‐plastic interface, which can be coupled with an embedded beam element in order to model its non‐linear interaction with the surrounding solid medium. The formulation is herein implemented for lateral loading of piles but is able to represent soil‐pile interaction phenomena in a general manner for different types of loading conditions or ground movements. The interface is formulated in order to capture localized material plasticity in the soil surrounding the pile within the range of small to moderate lateral displacements. The interface is formulated following two different approaches: (i) in terms of beam degrees of freedoms; and (ii) considering the displacement field of the solid domain. Each of these alternatives has its own advantages and shortcomings, which are discussed in this paper. The paper presents a comparison of the results obtained by means of the present formulation and by other well‐established analysis methods and test results published in the literature. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotopic and Elemental Composition of Marine Macrophytes as Biotracers of Nutrient Recycling Within a Coastal Lagoon in Baja California,Mexico

Nutrient sources of San Quintin Bay, a coastal lagoon affected by coastal upwelling off Baja California (Mexico), were traced using generalized additive (mixed) models (GAMM) to the stable nitrogen isotopic composition, C:N and N content of two co-occurring macrophytes (the macroalgae Ulva spp. and the seagrass Zostera marina). The geochemical tracers followed a spatial trend that partly responded to the long-term nutrient gradient from the ocean towards the interior of the bay. N content in Z. marina and Ulva spp. decreased linearly (while C:N increased) towards the middle section of the bay to concentration levels that indicate potential N limitation for growth. Concurrently midway into the bay (6–9 km), the δ¹⁵N of both macrophytes showed a gradual enrichment in ¹⁵N reflecting progressive denitrification. The spatial pattern of δ¹⁵N and the decrease in C:N of the macrophytes towards the innermost section of the bay indicated an additional nonoceanic source of dissolved nitrogen in this zone. The similarity of the δ¹⁵N pattern of Z. marina and Ulva spp. implies that their δ¹⁵N composition is mainly controlled by the availability of N, in spite of the physiological differences between taxa. A better fit of GAMM to N content and C:N was obtained for Z. marina than for Ulva spp. indicating that the former delineate more steadily and smoothly the influence of upwelling along the spatial gradient. Nonetheless, Ulva spp. may be analyzed in combination with Z. marina to characterize the environmental conditions at the time of sampling.     

Along‐strike evolution of folding,stretching and breaching of supra‐salt strata in the Plataforma Burgalesa extensional forced fold system (northern Spain)

The Plataforma Burgalesa is a partly exposed extensional forced fold system with an intermediate salt layer, which has developed along the southern portion of the Basque‐Cantabrian Basin from Malm to Early Cretaceous as part of the Bay of Biscay‐Pyrenean rift system. Relationships between syn‐ and pre‐rift strata of the supra‐salt cover sequence and distribution of intra‐cover second‐order faults are observed both along seismic sections and at the surface. These relationships indicate an along‐strike variability of the extensional structural style. After a short period of salt mobilization and forced folding, high slip rates in the central portion of the major basement faults have rapidly promoted brittle behaviour of the salt layer, preventing further salt mobilization and facilitating the propagation of the fault across the salt layer. In contrast, at the tip regions of basement faults, slower slip rates have facilitated ductile salt behaviour, ensuring its further evaporite evacuation, preventing fault propagation across the salt layer and, in essence, allowing for a long‐living forced folding process. Our results indicate the important effect of along‐strike variation in displacement and displacement rates in controlling evaporite behaviour in extensional basins. Amount of displacement and displacement rates are key factors controlling the propagation of basement faults across evaporite layers. In addition, growth strata patterns are recognized as a powerful tool for constraining the up‐dip propagation history of basement faults in extensional fault‐related fold systems with intermediate décollement levels.     

U-Pb Zircon Geochronology with an Integrated LA-ICP-MS Microanalytical Workstation: Achievements in Precision and Accuracy

Laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is a microanalytical tool especially suitable for providing fast and precise U-Pb geochronological results on zircon grains. A new 193 nm excimer laser adapted to a micromachining workstation, equipped with a newly designed two-volume ablation cell and coupled with a quadrupole ICP-MS, is presented here. The system was tuned routinely to achieve sensitivities in the range of 3000 cps/μg g⁻¹ for ²³⁸U (< 2% RSD), with a 34 μm spot size, at 5 Hz and ∼ 8 J cm⁻², while ablating the NIST SRM 612 glass reference material. The system was capable of providing fast (< 1.5 minutes each analysis) and precise (generally < 1.5% 1s errors) ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U zircon ages. The ages of widely used reference material zircons (Plesovice, 337 Ma; Temora, 416 Ma; R33, 418 Ma; Sri Lanka, 564 Ma; 91500, 1065 Ma) could be precisely matched, with an accuracy on isotopic ratios that ranged from ∼ 2 to ∼ 6%, depending on the homogeneity of the natural reference materials.